Iceagewhereartthou

Yeah the cold has been centered too far West all season. The Midwest to West coast has had an awesome winter, but the cold has not made it East of the Great Lakes and south of the Mason Dixon. Our little SE corner was completely left out of the cold and fun this year and I am hating it!. The potential was there and the cold has been there, but we could never get the jet stream to push farther East and the same areas have gotten the fun over and over, with more to come next week. Just saw that LA failed to reach 70 in Feb for the first time in 132 years! It is becoming more and more clear that if those of us outside the mountains and south of I-40 want to experience any more than a random inch or two of slush we'll have to move. The 60s, 70s, and 80s winters, like the ones that brought GSP double digit totals 11 out of 24 years from 59/60 to 82/83, then two more in 86/87 and 87/88, and even the March 93 and 95/96 winters are long, long gone; and I'm not sure we'll ever see anything like those again. CAE doesn't have a monthly snowfall totals chart on their site like GSP does but by next winter their measurable snow drought will be nearly 6 years. I know CAE has never been a ski area but six years without measurable snowfall has to be a record there I would think.

Good to see cold but that looks like backside cold after the low and precip pass; ie cold chasing moisture.

It would certainly be nice but I can't bet against the pattern. The pattern all winter is for the cold press to be mush less than modeled in the medium range, especially at the mid levels. I can't think of a single time when the mid levels were colder than modeled. Been several times where I was supposed to see at least a sleet pellet or two and got nothing but rain. Even the Dec storm was more sleet than anticipated for my area. The storm track trend has been further north and the surface temps have been underwhwelming all winter. As much as I would love see some snow I just can't see the indeces lining up all the sudden as we head into met Spring. I'll stay tuned to see what happens but the towel is ready to go and I've been holding it for a long time. Verbatim on that GFS, we'd need a high to the north or it's gonna cut again like all the others. The FV3 has a high but it's sliding and too weak.

Yep, just saw that too. Video of LA snow, and Vegas tying a 70 year-old record for snow per TWC. Was supposed to be a good year for the east but been good for everyone else instead. Pattern is as bad as it gets for us. Every system tracking from Amarillo to great lakes.

The law of the land (SE) this year has certainly been for models to overestimate the cold push in the long to mid range. As we've gotten closer, the cold hasn't been there at all this year. December snow was the same; for days snow and frozen was shown well into SC. Come go time, only extreme northern SC got any at all. The models have been too cold everytime this year and I wouldn't expect that to change all of the sudden. We may still have a chance before the end, but it's going to take a much bigger breakdown of the SER, a stronger high than we've seen materialize this year, and setting in for more than a day. Time is not on our side.

Good analogy; sometimes the good in life just doesn't work out. There's hope during darkness, when evil is winning out, but eventually good will overcome again.

I would be getting pretty interested if I was North of I-40 or above 2000ft. Unfortunately I'm not.

Hey, now theres one where the upstate does well!

Still can't get 6 inches in western upstate

Hey if you can sacrifice your body for the collective, I'll head up the relief fund!

I feel like we've seen a ton of these maps this year and, well...we know what happens. Even verbatim, this would do nothing for I-85; this is all west of apps/ north of I-40 stuff.

If that happens, you'll be required to have shoulder surgery every year!

That's awful! For once I'm not on the torch side - 37 and drizzle here.

True, but to be fair, in " a few weeks" it will really be too late for most outside the mountains to reasonably hope for any wintry weather. While it's true SC has had very good snows in late Feb through mid March, those storms tend to take a miracle and we don't have the climate we used to. I'm still hopeful to get one more chance, but I just have very little confidence of ingredients lining up at the eleventh hour. Maybe we get a repeat of last year with March being colder than Feb, but it still didn't deliver south of I -40. We'll see, but we're almost out of punting room, and the " we've gotten good snows... " line of keeping hope alive is likely just that.

It may be upon us. A few well timed hours of sleet and mix in early december kept this form being a complete blank, and another 2011-2012. At GSP last 3 Febs: Feb 2017: +8.2, only 6 readings below 32, lowest 26. 12 days above 70 with a high of 81! Feb 2018: +7.9, only 6 readings below 32, lowest 22. 8 days above 70 with 2 reaching 80 and 81! Feb 2019: (Through first 7 days) +12.4, only 2 readings below 32, lowest 28. 3 days over 70 with high of 77! Feb just keeps getting worse and worse.

This absolutely SUX! at least 3/4 of the nation actaully feeling like February, and some parts have even had a pretty good winter. I'll tell you what, the southeast ridge this past decade has been an absolute beast, and we just can't get it to go away.

Unfortunately the only frame that looks good for those south of I-40 (non ice) shows up at hour 360. THAT looks really good, but at 360 it's a complete pipe dream.

Well it's Feb 5th and I have clouds rolling in overhead. I wonder if I might get some frozen precipitation? Oh wait, never mind, it's 72 degrees!

Fixed it!

Good thing accuweather isn't accurate; only gives me one more day with highs in the 40s (48) from now till next fall (November?)!

If not for the early dec system and accompanied cold, this winter would be a definite "F" thus far, and I'm not talking in comparison to what we were hoping for based on projections. That's the only frozen event, in my backyard, and haven't seen anything else even minor. And while we haven't seen a ton of 70s or anything like that, it's been very mild for the most part. I think my low is 18, and only been below 20 3-4 nights. I usually have at least one morning below 10 but nothing close. Were halfway b/w Chicago and Miami. One might think that if Chicago can get to -30, we might at least see single digits, but nope. Terrible winter so far, with a very warm outlook coming. Hoping for something after V-day is likely going to be fruitless. There was another winter a few years ago where most thought the indeces were all aligned and it was a big bust, but so far this one is worse. Oh well, maybe we'll have another chance or two after V-day.

Neither is spending six months of the year counting down to the first cool front, and having to hope against hope for one little dusting of snow to get a little change of pace! So where's the balance? Boone?

In all honesty I would agree. I think we see one or two more shots between now and first week of March. Despite recent record warm February's, where winter was truly over by this time, this pattern has just been too changeable to throw in the towel yet. We'll see, it's sure been a hair puller so far.