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Iceagewhereartthou

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Everything posted by Iceagewhereartthou

  1. Iceagewhereartthou
    Burrel, what location did you use?
  2. Iceagewhereartthou
    Yes I remember that now. I think NAM was only model showing it and it nailed it!
  3. Iceagewhereartthou
    Looks like dewpoints right now across the NW upstate are running in the 20s, all the way SW to Clemson/Walhalla area where they hit the 30s. Looks like 23/24 all the way to GMU, 26 here in Easley, 27 Pickens Airport. That is lower than i was expecting for today. Could figure in later for ground temps once that colder push starts.
  4. Iceagewhereartthou
    Very interesting. This is our first expererience with it for WW here so we are all interested to see how it does.
  5. Iceagewhereartthou
    Looks a lot like Feb 2014 Euro Clown map for upstate. This one puts me in the 12-16 range - will never happen. If this were my only piece of info Id go with 1-3 of slush.
  6. Iceagewhereartthou
    I simply can't believe the consitancy of the FV3 over the past week, it hasn't waivered one bit. What a coup if the overall depictions (not clown map) verified. Still wish that western upstate minimum would go away and fill in with the heavier stuff but i guess it is what it is.
  7. Iceagewhereartthou
    Yeah, we'll see a token snowflake or sleet pellet just to torture us a little more, then get heavy rain at 33 the rest of the time. If anyone in NC has power, maybe they can post some snow pics so we can see what it looks like! Or have to take a trip up Caeser's Head. Stinks livin south of the border when you want snow!
  8. Iceagewhereartthou
    Saw a few sleet pellets this morning, looks like I'm just north of the precip right now. Being where I am, it's awesome to see the colder trends this morning but I'm not buying it yet. Western upstate continues to be in a snow minimum so we really need that colder push to continue. Problem is we've seen this last minute push for colder in the past and been burned by it. I'm going with mostly ice to rain for Pickens/Oconee south of Hwy 11, maybe down to 183. All the snow projection maps the mets are putting out shows me at about 2 inches, but my parents, less than 10 miles north with about 8+! Come on cold - surprise me for once... I dae you!
  9. Iceagewhereartthou
    Makes sense to me, all models showing mostly a mix to ice in western upstate; makes for lower totals. Thick enough cold air not making it far enough SW, especially with slightly lower high.
  10. Iceagewhereartthou
    Ceasers Head will get some, buses can't make it up 276.
  11. Iceagewhereartthou
    I think you're spot on. I've noticed the trend today is for models showing a weaker high, 1032-1035 (vs yesterday 1036-1040) and it being too far west, over WI, instead of Pen. Either the low is too fast or the high is too slow but it's getting left behind.
  12. Iceagewhereartthou
    Maybe start a group therapy thread for Upstate and RDU peeps, get out all our pain about how bad our areas are for winter weather. Someone from Columbia can moderate. "Hi I'm Iceage, I'm addicted to snow and live in the upstate!"
  13. Iceagewhereartthou
    Here's the low end. Wow, went all in for CLT! 3 for AVL? Huh?
  14. Iceagewhereartthou
    Are we sure that's not their "high end" map? They used to put out 3 different ones; one for low end totals, one for high end, and one for the middle road (and most likely).
  15. Iceagewhereartthou
    The amount of whinning from the RDU crowd on the board is CRAZY. I know we all think our own backyard gets left out but they take it to another level. RDU averages more snow than the upstate, despite being a lower elevation and further from the mtns. Wasn't it just last year many of them got a big snow?
  16. Iceagewhereartthou
    Yep. I'm afraid the upstate is in for a bunch of cold rain and with a period of mix. CAD s take too long to get here and WAA is too strong. IF THE COLD AIR ISN'T ALREADY IN PLACE UPSTATE GETS SCREWED (unless you're north and east of TR). I really think most of us (upstate) are going to be disappointed by the lack of cold, NAM already backing off too.
  17. Iceagewhereartthou
    Don't worry, our ten inches will compact to two with all the IP/ZR. Going to be tough watching Hendersonville get two feet while we get two inches. Not fair dang it! Yet another with the Pickens Oconee screw job
  18. Iceagewhereartthou
    While the numbers are different, you can clearly see the western upstate warm bubble phenomenon, going from 20 in Sptbg to 3 in Oconee; an area that is slightly higher elevation and closer to the mtns. Euro has been showing this as well.
  19. Iceagewhereartthou
    Western upstate warm bubble. It's always there, but mote noticeable this time with the amount of QPF. HATE IT!!
  20. Iceagewhereartthou
    Can you do GSP?
  21. Iceagewhereartthou
    This remains my concern, a la Feb 2014. VERY similar feel to this storm for the upstate; long duration, high QPF, marginal temps, colder trend on approach, buy in from all models. But come storm time, mostly sleet and zr. WAA was stronger and faster than anticipated. In fact we've mentioned that many times in our post storm "what did we learn" threads, to watch out for WAA, despite the idea that wedges can be strong and stubborn. That's how I see the upstate here, probably all sleet and zr, except favored areas closer to the border. Hoping for a colder surprise though. Actually what I would wish for is the I-20 corridor to be play. Altruistically because Eastern ATL to CAE is due, and selfishly so it would move me in the colder part and I could be mostly snow with plenty of wiggle room!
  22. Iceagewhereartthou
    That's what HAS to happen for us periphery peeps (upstate, Clt, Rdu, Nega) to get much wintry stuff. If that is accurate and the push continues, look out. And we all know GFS is terrible with this at this range.
  23. Iceagewhereartthou
    To me it looks like they're trying to phase. I think we want them to stay separated. I think the energy wants to consolidate thus, yes, pulling our wave a bit north. I dunno, maybe not..Grit?
  24. Iceagewhereartthou
    Guys I may be off but I think the GFS always has trouble with our systems about 4 or 5 days out. I think it has a particular weakness projecting how the S/w is going to act once it gets onshore. Thinking back through other storms it seems to be all over the place about this same time, then seems to be pretty close by about 48-72 hours out. Remember, it also like to suppress, overcorrect north, then suppress a bit more late in the game. Not too worried about the GFS yet BUT, much of the suite tonight looks to be going with a slightly weaker high anchor, a farther north LP, and resultant trimming of peripheral totals. That's actually climo. Best expectation now is mtns getting nice storm, maybe very big, then NW Piedmont- central NC- eastern/central upstate, etc, in that order for the next best chances.
  25. Iceagewhereartthou
    Feb 2014. Local Mets calling for 8-12, with one or two going 8-14. Euro showing 14-18 at go time. Warm nose. Sleetfest. ZR. 3 inches max!
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