Iceagewhereartthou

DOn't fall for the Euro clown maps! I have before - they're about as useful as a DGEX (ahem, Feb 2014...)

Unbelievable isn't it?

Sorry it's already 2:54! Couldn't resist...

Lol; 11 inches for Orangeburg, 1 for western upstate! This will change 100 times of course, but you just have to laugh...

All relative and personal perception I guess, I feel like I'm still waiting on the cold - it can arrive anytime now... 70 can (and will) happen anytime b/w April and October, but give me the cold right now! It's been a pretty wimpy winter so far, too many fantasy arctic outbreaks - all talk and no action from the models! For me, I'll take cold even if its dry. Rather have snow of course, but rather have cold and dry than warm ALL DAY ANY DAY!

Starting to get frustrated here in the upstate. There are 3 upcoming systems and I can't find a single snowfall map that projects anything more than a few flurries here (with most being a complete blank). There looks to be a great chance of at least one accum snow west of the Apps (and maybe as far down as the gulf coast), and the I-40 corridor through NC has lots of support for something, and even the coastal carolina areas have a shot next week. But the NEGA and upstate (heck, the whole state of SC) just cannot get any love from the models. I keep thinking we'll have a couple more shots before the end of Feb, and we still may, but each new threat leaves us out. Were going to run out of punting room here pretty soon.

Exactly, and whole lot more area above 5000. I actually accidentally wrapped this into my previous post, but the area in question is negatively affected in two ways by those same mountains. In this set up it's the drying of moisture. In many cases it's the blocking of cold air and the warming due to the winds. In either case, the same area is often left with a brown yard. Beyond that though, it still looks like there'll be a at least a couple chances in the next couple weeks, really all we can ask for.

For all the Athens to CLT folks (the newer guys anyway) this graphic is a perfect depiction of what happens when our precip has to come over the mountains. Imagine drawing a line from Raleigh to Macon- all things being equal, you would expect that snow line to be pretty consistent. Instead you have a 200 x 100 mile area with absolutely nothing (and especially the western upstate bubble ) due to the drying effects of down slopping winds off the mtns. Unless the cold is in place before the precipitation, this is how it will go down. It's easy to understand the frustration for people in the Athens to GSP to CLT line (and to a lesser extent the Midlands) who see this over and over again.

Pretty crazy lookout, I had no idea it was that warm there today. I just hit 46 and that's my high for the day. I just checked some other locales and its currently 61 at CLT and 64 at CAE. Power of the wedge can be pretty impressive.

Per radar, rain just now entering Georgia. Doesn't matter now, temp and dps above freezing. This slow mover is 24 hours too late. Even that would have just been ice.

I don't believe that- you know you want some snow too! Having said that, couldn't you have played golf the past six weeks (rain aside)? IMO, fall and winter are the best times to play golf. Summer is beyond too hot and humid.

Went to bed with full cloud deck and WB of 29, but precipitation was back in TX/LA. Woke up and precipitation is still in TX/LA! Lol.

Completely agree; that's why I hated having such marginal cold along the I-85 corridor. Some called it "bonus" as it was a little outside of climo, but I saw it as a huge monkey wrench in what might be our best setup all winter. I would LOVE to get that kind of set up now, but I think it's not very likely to see that set up again this winter. Always a chink in the armor.

Looks pretty good. I would like to see a low that overruns from the west or sw, like the one the Canadian showed yesterday. This one on the Fv3 18z shows another low sagging down from the NW and trying to go through the mtns. Invariably it will cause a down sloping lee side min for the foothills and upstate. Is there no way to get a southern slider when it's cold enough for snow?

40 and clouds. I just love winter in this area!

Fv3 would be awesome for coastal areas and maybe over to I-77, but would be yet another heartbreaker for western upstate! Got a little from Dec but missed on most of it. Missed both big storms last year; Dec 17 to the West and North, and early Jan coastal to the South and East, looks like the exact same could happen again. THIS AREA SUCKS FOR SNOW!!! If the Fv3 were to verify, CHS would have more snow than GSP for the second straight year! Maybe we'll get a shot with the next system, but that may be another NC storm.

19 this am. Currently 37/ -1.

That looks absolutely beautiful! Classic southern snowstorm. Too bad it's the Canadian and it'll never happen.

Some people have mentioned the Jan 2000 "Carolina Crusher" over the past few days while watching the evolution of this potential system. While it's way too premature to lock on to a storm like that, this particular output map looks a whole lot like that event. Not necessarily for totals, but eerily similar in terms of placement for haves and have nots. Check out that western cutoff; Jan 2000 yielded a trace or flurries to NW SC.

Is it just me or are the ensembles not agreeing with their Operationals, as well as operationals of other models? Both the GEFS and EPS show some decent snow for the upstate and piedmont areas, but I have yet to see an operational run that shows anything more than a flurry or dusting for the upstate, with some being a complete whiff. While I'd rather have the ensembles on my side at this point, it would be nice to see at least one operational showing something convincing for the upstate/piedmont areas. Everything has either been MS/AL/TN snow, and more recently MCN/CAE/WLM snow.

Great to see! Verbatim it would be only a quick glancing shot for upstate and piedmont, but would be a big one from Cola to MYB and eastern NC. CAE is certainly due, but I'd like to see a better turn up the coast for the upstate. Obviously this is just one OP run and it'll change. Good to be in the game!

Agree. I completely understand the frustration; we all get the short end of the stick most of the time because of where we live, but it would be easier to read the discussion thread if it didn't have so much banter. I'm all for venting but those posts need to be in the appropriate threads. I think in this case, it is getting bad because most of the board has yet to see snow. We've been reading about this incredible pattern since the Fall and it has yet to establish itself; the models have been showing some incredible soultions (getting people's hopes up despite years of experience teaching them not to fall for it) over the past few weeks but none of them seem to verify even close. Now we have massive swings and it just feels like it's taking forever to get cold and patience is wearing thin. OP runs also tend to make the most noise (I guess because they have such potential to show big dogs and crushing cold) but we all need to remember that the ensembles do a better job at showing trends and opportuities. While I'd love to be able to find even one OP run giving me snow (it's always north or west) it's very encouraging having seen it on ensemble soltutions, as well as all the potential for cold and energy coming up. There's never a guarantee, especially outside the mountains, but what we're seeing is way better than what we've seen since the Dec storm. All we can do is be happy we'll have some opportunities and hope it works out. If it doesn't I'll be very disappointed, of course; but at least we'll be in the game; that's better than just riding the bench all the time.

You'll have the heat ridge steady from May to September, and periodically March, April, and October. I'll take cold/cool anyway and anytime I can get it!

"Charlie Said it Would!" https://www.legacy.com/obituaries/greenvilleonline/obituary.aspx?pid=140778527 https://serhasacomplaint.com/2011/12/12/charlie-said-it-would/ Well too bad the 18z GFS is just fantasy, or it might be worthy of one of his forecasts! Loving the trends though. My biggest concern all along (other than the pattern change not happening at all ) is that the cold and snow may stay west of the Apps, and I still think that is a distinct possibility. If so, it could be an incredible pattern for I-75 West, and I-40 North, but leave the rest of us out in the rain. That would stink out loud, so hope it doesn't happen. Hard to ask for more than a cold outlook with multiple disturbances for the 7-28 day outlook though.

Yeah, my last rain came in at 32.5 degrees. At least this evening I'm getting it at 41. Good grief, gotta love winter in SC (and Raleigh ).