Iceagewhereartthou

NWS GSP office has this on their AFD page - records for the coming week before the cooldown: RECORDS FOR 09-30 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 85 1981 50 1924 65 2018 30 1967 1941 1955 1897 1927 KCLT 91 1926 56 1984 72 1904 38 1888 KGSP 94 1933 59 1984 70 1954 32 1888 RECORDS FOR 10-01 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 86 1941 49 1920 65 1971 29 1895 1897 KCLT 92 1954 60 1899 72 1881 39 1899 KGSP 93 1911 61 1984 71 1971 39 1993 1947 1899 RECORDS FOR 10-02 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 87 1897 51 1958 65 1971 28 1895 KCLT 92 1986 52 1958 72 1986 36 1899 1954 KGSP 93 1933 50 1958 69 1941 35 1895 1884 RECORDS FOR 10-03 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 88 1954 56 1987 66 1941 23 1895 1929 KCLT 91 1986 56 1974 72 1898 36 1974 1954 1958 1883 1926 KGSP 92 1884 56 1958 70 2007 30 1974 1898 RECORDS FOR 10-04 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 86 1986 54 1921 67 1941 22 1895 KCLT 95 1954 60 1974 72 1898 33 1974 KGSP 94 1954 58 1957 72 1941 32 1974 RECORDS FOR 10-05 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 90 1941 50 1980 65 1998 29 1968 KCLT 97 1954 57 1980 73 1986 38 2014 1974 KGSP 96 1954 56 1980 70 2007 33 1974 1954 RECORDS FOR 10-06 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 90 1941 49 1932 64 2005 33 2010 1955 1974 1895 1970 KCLT 98 1954 58 1883 71 1954 38 1935 1884 KGSP 97 1954 56 1968 70 2018 39 1985 1979 1964

Seems like this has been look for the past few years now; unwavering. We just can't buy an eastern trough anymore.

"It's a hoax, I suggest we all leave."

Talk on the other board about the Euro showing no cooldown and the GFS only showing CAD type cooldown as opposed to FROPA. If it doesn't cool down soon I think I'm literally going to curl up in a ball and cry. Edit: just checked out the GFS, looks like the 12z is better at bringing the cool air down on the 5th still , then reenforcing the cooler air thereeafter, whereas the 6z has a small cooldown but then less cool after. Still looks like it wil be cooler thatn now either way, but not sure if "Fall" is on the way yet or not.

The averages at GSP for October 5th are 76/54. TWC shows 78/56 for that day. Pretty sobering to think we're looking at a possible significant Fall front with a major cooldown and we'd still be above average. I wonder if below average (for more than a random day or two) will ever happen again?

And just 20 miles to your west, my yard looks a lot more like Burns. Definitely losing a few brown leaves, but trees still green. Hydrangeas wilting though.

SEP 23 Sunny 91°68° 10% WSW 6 mph 49% TUE SEP 24 Mostly Sunny 89°66° 10% NNE 6 mph 53% WED SEP 25 Sunny 89°64° 0% E 6 mph 45% THU SEP 26 Mostly Sunny 95°69° 10% W 6 mph 49% FRI SEP 27 Sunny 93°69° 10% ENE 6 mph 51% SAT SEP 28 Mostly Sunny 92°68° 10% ESE 5 mph 55% SUN SEP 29 Mostly Sunny 94°67° 10% NE 6 mph 54% MON SEP 30 Sunny 92°67° 10% ENE 7 mph 54% TUE OCT 1 Mostly Sunny 90°66° 10% ENE 6 mph 56% WED OCT 2 Sunny 90°66° 20% ENE 6 mph 57 AHHH, those cool crisp temps of Fall! Those refreshing, breezy, walking around without melting days and AC cutting, window opening, comfortable sleeping nights!

Welp, after another day of runs the post 25th cool down is now completely gone and the heat continues to build through the end of the run. The 18z GFS wants to push a pretty big front across country the first week of Oct, though verbatim, I'm not sure it would make it past the mtns. Enjoy the next few days fellas!

Gotcha, yeah, don't remember 1980.

I understand what you're saying, but using last September, one of the warmest on record for many, is not a great benchmark. Plus averaging this September compared to last year doesn't tell the whole story. The highs this month have been way higher then the highs for September last year. The average highs in AVL this September have been nearly 5 degrees higher than last, resulting in 8 days it has reached 90 or higher through the first 17 days, compared to a monthly high of just 87 last year. The only reason the averages are closer to last year is bc the lows have been closer to normal, but most people are reacting to the highs. And this is just AVL. Yes, it will eventually cool off, but most of us hate bringing summer into October. Even if we go below the mean for last year, that will be little comfort for most. Regardless, looking forward to these next couple of days!

My kids were at soccer practice this evening and it was plain nasty outside. Worst September ever!

GFS continues to show second cool off after 25th, but now it's very brief and builds the heat right back in through the beginning of Oct. Big time trough out west with some bona fide cold coming but ridge in the East just won't go away for more than about 48 hours. Anyone know what the driving forces have been for the trough west/ ridge east that has been almost the exclusive pattern the past couple years?

I'd love to think summers were too short! It really is amazing that going north just 500 miles can be the difference between endless winters and endless summers. Crazy to think such a short distance makes that much difference.

Yeah some nice wx late this week, but it looks like it goes right back to the furnace. I'm going to have to move, this May to Oct summer is getting to be too much for me.

Yeah, something about the dominant large scale pattern has led to this for an extended period of time, going on years. Others on here can better speak to it, but it's obvious and there's no sign of change. I keep holding out hope it would change or flip to a western ridge pattern for awhile but this may indeed be the new normal.

Well the GFS lost the idea yesterday but thankfully shows a cool down still coming after the 25th, with a reenforcement at the end of the month. Still way out there, but the 25 is 11 days out. If we can get it inside a week I'll feel a lot better about maybe getting that cooldown we all need.

GFS continues to show nice cool down for much of the area by 25th through the end of the run, we're talking 70s/50s for s good chunk of the board, with 60s/40s higher elevation. Would feel fantastic but let's see if it holds. Been showing for several days now. BTW check out the heat urban islands on that model, you can pick out every city with noticeably warmer night temps, especially ATL.

For Sept 12, GSP average temp is 83/63. Its been 90s every day this month except one. Boy 83 would sire feel nice.

Yeah this stinks out loud. That SER has basically been a fixture going on a couple of years now. The last period of any respectable below normal temps in the East was Jan 2018, and that was really just the first two weeks of Jan. That's the longest stretch of below normal we've had in many years. Other than that we get a front to cool us down to normal or a little below for a couple days and its right back up. Meanwhile, the upper midwest and northern Rockies have been consistently below normal for a couple years. I know the planet doesn't care, but it would be nice if us in the east could get a reprieve for at least a few months.

GFS continues to show pattern change around the 18th with trough finally coming to the east. Brings 30s all the way down to Pennsylvania and W Virginia by the 20th and 50s all the way to gulf coast by 21st. SE ridge quickly back in place by 23rd though.

Too bad there's no truth to the myth!

But we just had a tropical system. But instead of pulling down cooler air it it's getting hotter. I'm not personally in a drought and have enjoyed the drier weather, BUT, I need a cool down!!!

ATL forecast of 98 Monday! Looks like most models showing small cool down, but still above average for next weekend. GFS shows bigger front FINALLY pushing through on the 21st, and bringing a better feel. PLEASE, FOR ALL THAT IS DECENT!

Ouch. Upper mid west has definitely been the place to be over the past couple of years in particular.

Yeah, this is old already. A week ago GSP had no 90s in it's forecast, now it is all 90s through end of next week! This September picking up where last Sept left off. Last year we had to wait till Oct 12 to see any cooldown, I REALLY hope that doesn't happen again, but no signs of it right now. SO FRUSTRATING!!!