Iceagewhereartthou

In all honesty I would agree. I think we see one or two more shots between now and first week of March. Despite recent record warm February's, where winter was truly over by this time, this pattern has just been too changeable to throw in the towel yet. We'll see, it's sure been a hair puller so far.

What we all were hoping for back in the Fall with the most epic winter predictions of all time: Now that reality has hit:

Wow, that's early! Looks like its April. Made it down to 27 this am, and had just enough cold to keep that from happening here. Boy that tree is in full bloom though, not just budding! BTW, just checked out NOAA; there's at least a WWA out for EVERY southeastern state except two; Florida and SC. Kind of expected in FL but how pathetic is SC?

I really like Chris Justus, but his facebook says "coldest air in several years" coming after the front, then the wyff outlook shows highs in mid 40s, lows in 20s. Not only did he forget about last Jan, but that's not even the coldest of this wimpy winter.

Honestly, with the semi-permenant southeast ridge and totally absent wintertime -NAO over the past decade, it seems to be becoming the norm. Frustrating as heck, but unless and we can get some larger patterns to realign in our favor this will continue. I'm afraid this is the new normal. With the mountains already making it difficult, much of SC may see less snow than Mobile and FL panhandle going forward. If CAE can't sneak something out in Feb, they'll be looking at a six year drought by the time next winter rolls around. Even GSP has seen only two accumulating snows in Feb and March COMBINED since 2015, and they were .4 and .5 inches. Snow in SC is quickly becoming a thing of the past.

Well here's two more: Mondays system we get nothing due to drying from downsloping winds. Wednesday we'll see a couple tenths of QPF but the mountains will delay the cold so it will be all rain. I'm sure the final shot, next Fri/Sat we'll be too far north, or we'll get the perfect track with no cold or...

I LOVE the upstate!

We're living in the WRONG place my friend, we can't even get fantasy snow right now!

How about the "In Your Dreams" model!

All relative and personal perception I guess, I feel like I'm still waiting on the cold - it can arrive anytime now... 70 can (and will) happen anytime b/w April and October, but give me the cold right now! It's been a pretty wimpy winter so far, too many fantasy arctic outbreaks - all talk and no action from the models! For me, I'll take cold even if its dry. Rather have snow of course, but rather have cold and dry than warm ALL DAY ANY DAY!

Starting to get frustrated here in the upstate. There are 3 upcoming systems and I can't find a single snowfall map that projects anything more than a few flurries here (with most being a complete blank). There looks to be a great chance of at least one accum snow west of the Apps (and maybe as far down as the gulf coast), and the I-40 corridor through NC has lots of support for something, and even the coastal carolina areas have a shot next week. But the NEGA and upstate (heck, the whole state of SC) just cannot get any love from the models. I keep thinking we'll have a couple more shots before the end of Feb, and we still may, but each new threat leaves us out. Were going to run out of punting room here pretty soon.

I don't believe that- you know you want some snow too! Having said that, couldn't you have played golf the past six weeks (rain aside)? IMO, fall and winter are the best times to play golf. Summer is beyond too hot and humid.

Fv3 would be awesome for coastal areas and maybe over to I-77, but would be yet another heartbreaker for western upstate! Got a little from Dec but missed on most of it. Missed both big storms last year; Dec 17 to the West and North, and early Jan coastal to the South and East, looks like the exact same could happen again. THIS AREA SUCKS FOR SNOW!!! If the Fv3 were to verify, CHS would have more snow than GSP for the second straight year! Maybe we'll get a shot with the next system, but that may be another NC storm.

Is it just me or are the ensembles not agreeing with their Operationals, as well as operationals of other models? Both the GEFS and EPS show some decent snow for the upstate and piedmont areas, but I have yet to see an operational run that shows anything more than a flurry or dusting for the upstate, with some being a complete whiff. While I'd rather have the ensembles on my side at this point, it would be nice to see at least one operational showing something convincing for the upstate/piedmont areas. Everything has either been MS/AL/TN snow, and more recently MCN/CAE/WLM snow.

Agree. I completely understand the frustration; we all get the short end of the stick most of the time because of where we live, but it would be easier to read the discussion thread if it didn't have so much banter. I'm all for venting but those posts need to be in the appropriate threads. I think in this case, it is getting bad because most of the board has yet to see snow. We've been reading about this incredible pattern since the Fall and it has yet to establish itself; the models have been showing some incredible soultions (getting people's hopes up despite years of experience teaching them not to fall for it) over the past few weeks but none of them seem to verify even close. Now we have massive swings and it just feels like it's taking forever to get cold and patience is wearing thin. OP runs also tend to make the most noise (I guess because they have such potential to show big dogs and crushing cold) but we all need to remember that the ensembles do a better job at showing trends and opportuities. While I'd love to be able to find even one OP run giving me snow (it's always north or west) it's very encouraging having seen it on ensemble soltutions, as well as all the potential for cold and energy coming up. There's never a guarantee, especially outside the mountains, but what we're seeing is way better than what we've seen since the Dec storm. All we can do is be happy we'll have some opportunities and hope it works out. If it doesn't I'll be very disappointed, of course; but at least we'll be in the game; that's better than just riding the bench all the time.

You'll have the heat ridge steady from May to September, and periodically March, April, and October. I'll take cold/cool anyway and anytime I can get it!

Yeah, my last rain came in at 32.5 degrees. At least this evening I'm getting it at 41. Good grief, gotta love winter in SC (and Raleigh ).

I too am excited about the period after the 20th! At the very least, we'll have some good opportunities; here's to hoping they pan out, and it doesn't all go west of Apps/North of 1-40/Become Gulf and coastal suppressors/or some other way to keep the ATL - GSP- CAE triangle snowless!! Per TWC I only go below 31 once over the next 15 days

Yep. Already up to 34.5/29! That was fast. Enjoy guys, I really hope SC can get something from the 1/24 -mid-Feb timeframe, might be our best stretch!

I don't think it will deliver for my area of the upstate. Possibly the area from about TR to Inman and north could see a little light icing, but not my area. I'm currently at 32/27. Even though I'm at freezing right now, I expect my temp to raise several degrees now that clouds are setting in, and with a DP of 27 I have no way to wet bulb down; unless the CAA wedge has yet to kick in, as the models were showing teens for my DPs. I keep looking at the radar and shaking my head; why oh why couldn't we have the December track with this one? Low is about 300 miles too far north. St Louis to Delmarva is the place to be.

Going all in for the upstate; nice cold rain! Possibly token sleet pellet or barely there glaze on a tree branch at most, otherwise just our favorite cold miserable rain. This is NC north, maybe I40 north. Hoping that late Jan- Feb period works out for non-NC peeps!

It's been a couple days, the sitting water in my yard is gone and now it's just muddy. Definitely don't want to get too dry, gotta make sure those skeeters have plenty of breeding places.

I've thought all along this would be mainly a NC and North winter. Other than a small sliver of the upstate, the Dec snow was all NC and North. This looks to be more of the same, except perhaps the state line will be the cuttoff instead of 85. I'm afraid SC is going to face this all winter while NC will continue to get richer. Looks like 2009-2010 all over again.

Do you really think it "goes as planned?" I hope so, but am very doubtful. Other than a week in December, this met winter has been excruciatinly blah with temps (following a record warm fall), and were seeing no real signs of meaningful change, just "hoping" for one after Jan 20th. So far, all the pre winter hype and awesome pattern set ups have failed miserably. Yes, some got in on a good storm in Dec, but many don't live in NC, and I hate to waste most of January. Many areas can score big in Feb, so there's still plenty of time, but we don't have too many more weeks to waste. Back loaded is fine, but I hate trying to eek out something meaningful the latter half of Feb into March as there's too many issues to overcome for many areas, and I'm afraid that's where we're headed. Still, it's Jan second, and it would be silly to cliff dive this early. Here's hoping!

Last year for Jan 1st, GSP was 30/15. Yesterday it was 68/52; can I trade? Per GSP, I'm only supposed to go below 40 once on Sat night, then it warms up again. Someone said back in the fall they were just hoping we wouldn't have a historically warm month this winter, well Jan could do it. THIS STINKS!