Iceagewhereartthou

Some people have mentioned the Jan 2000 "Carolina Crusher" over the past few days while watching the evolution of this potential system. While it's way too premature to lock on to a storm like that, this particular output map looks a whole lot like that event. Not necessarily for totals, but eerily similar in terms of placement for haves and have nots. Check out that western cutoff; Jan 2000 yielded a trace or flurries to NW SC.

Is it just me or are the ensembles not agreeing with their Operationals, as well as operationals of other models? Both the GEFS and EPS show some decent snow for the upstate and piedmont areas, but I have yet to see an operational run that shows anything more than a flurry or dusting for the upstate, with some being a complete whiff. While I'd rather have the ensembles on my side at this point, it would be nice to see at least one operational showing something convincing for the upstate/piedmont areas. Everything has either been MS/AL/TN snow, and more recently MCN/CAE/WLM snow.

Great to see! Verbatim it would be only a quick glancing shot for upstate and piedmont, but would be a big one from Cola to MYB and eastern NC. CAE is certainly due, but I'd like to see a better turn up the coast for the upstate. Obviously this is just one OP run and it'll change. Good to be in the game!

Agree. I completely understand the frustration; we all get the short end of the stick most of the time because of where we live, but it would be easier to read the discussion thread if it didn't have so much banter. I'm all for venting but those posts need to be in the appropriate threads. I think in this case, it is getting bad because most of the board has yet to see snow. We've been reading about this incredible pattern since the Fall and it has yet to establish itself; the models have been showing some incredible soultions (getting people's hopes up despite years of experience teaching them not to fall for it) over the past few weeks but none of them seem to verify even close. Now we have massive swings and it just feels like it's taking forever to get cold and patience is wearing thin. OP runs also tend to make the most noise (I guess because they have such potential to show big dogs and crushing cold) but we all need to remember that the ensembles do a better job at showing trends and opportuities. While I'd love to be able to find even one OP run giving me snow (it's always north or west) it's very encouraging having seen it on ensemble soltutions, as well as all the potential for cold and energy coming up. There's never a guarantee, especially outside the mountains, but what we're seeing is way better than what we've seen since the Dec storm. All we can do is be happy we'll have some opportunities and hope it works out. If it doesn't I'll be very disappointed, of course; but at least we'll be in the game; that's better than just riding the bench all the time.

You'll have the heat ridge steady from May to September, and periodically March, April, and October. I'll take cold/cool anyway and anytime I can get it!

"Charlie Said it Would!" https://www.legacy.com/obituaries/greenvilleonline/obituary.aspx?pid=140778527 https://serhasacomplaint.com/2011/12/12/charlie-said-it-would/ Well too bad the 18z GFS is just fantasy, or it might be worthy of one of his forecasts! Loving the trends though. My biggest concern all along (other than the pattern change not happening at all ) is that the cold and snow may stay west of the Apps, and I still think that is a distinct possibility. If so, it could be an incredible pattern for I-75 West, and I-40 North, but leave the rest of us out in the rain. That would stink out loud, so hope it doesn't happen. Hard to ask for more than a cold outlook with multiple disturbances for the 7-28 day outlook though.

Yeah, my last rain came in at 32.5 degrees. At least this evening I'm getting it at 41. Good grief, gotta love winter in SC (and Raleigh ).

GSP must have suffered from downsloping in that outbreak and only got to -4, which isn't the all time record. I was in Dacusville though and got to -14. I have some vague memories but was too young to really appreciate or experience it. For that reason I'd love to see it happen one more time in my life. This one being modeled is probably way overdone but would fit the bill.

I would like to see that once in my life. GSP all-time low-high is 18; this would easily break that. Also saw lows around this time below zero for me, and teens below for mtns! Feb 1899, Jan 85 anyone?

MAJOR cold continuing to show up in eastern Canada after the 20th; 40s and even some 50s BELOW ZERO. However, it does not want to propogate much across the border. For the SE, while we look to get colder, we don't see much of the arctic air, only getting in to 20s and 10s in the upstate. If Toronto is -50, I would like to think we could have a run at something below zero here, but as usual, the cold stuff either stays west of the apps, or gets hung up in the apps and we downslope into much warmer temps. Great signs for several possible systems during the upcoming time frame, and that's really all we can ask for. Would be nice if everyone on the board could get something during the period. If I were in Tennesse, NC, VA I would be ecstatic! Hopefully the I-85 and I-20 folks can all get in on this too.

I too am excited about the period after the 20th! At the very least, we'll have some good opportunities; here's to hoping they pan out, and it doesn't all go west of Apps/North of 1-40/Become Gulf and coastal suppressors/or some other way to keep the ATL - GSP- CAE triangle snowless!! Per TWC I only go below 31 once over the next 15 days

Yep. Already up to 34.5/29! That was fast. Enjoy guys, I really hope SC can get something from the 1/24 -mid-Feb timeframe, might be our best stretch!

I don't think it will deliver for my area of the upstate. Possibly the area from about TR to Inman and north could see a little light icing, but not my area. I'm currently at 32/27. Even though I'm at freezing right now, I expect my temp to raise several degrees now that clouds are setting in, and with a DP of 27 I have no way to wet bulb down; unless the CAA wedge has yet to kick in, as the models were showing teens for my DPs. I keep looking at the radar and shaking my head; why oh why couldn't we have the December track with this one? Low is about 300 miles too far north. St Louis to Delmarva is the place to be.

Too bad it's counting on a 1052 high! Never, EVER happen! Seeing that is kinda like when Will and Carlton made Geoffrey think he had one the lottery!

Going all in for the upstate; nice cold rain! Possibly token sleet pellet or barely there glaze on a tree branch at most, otherwise just our favorite cold miserable rain. This is NC north, maybe I40 north. Hoping that late Jan- Feb period works out for non-NC peeps!

It's been a couple days, the sitting water in my yard is gone and now it's just muddy. Definitely don't want to get too dry, gotta make sure those skeeters have plenty of breeding places.

I've thought all along this would be mainly a NC and North winter. Other than a small sliver of the upstate, the Dec snow was all NC and North. This looks to be more of the same, except perhaps the state line will be the cuttoff instead of 85. I'm afraid SC is going to face this all winter while NC will continue to get richer. Looks like 2009-2010 all over again.

Do you really think it "goes as planned?" I hope so, but am very doubtful. Other than a week in December, this met winter has been excruciatinly blah with temps (following a record warm fall), and were seeing no real signs of meaningful change, just "hoping" for one after Jan 20th. So far, all the pre winter hype and awesome pattern set ups have failed miserably. Yes, some got in on a good storm in Dec, but many don't live in NC, and I hate to waste most of January. Many areas can score big in Feb, so there's still plenty of time, but we don't have too many more weeks to waste. Back loaded is fine, but I hate trying to eek out something meaningful the latter half of Feb into March as there's too many issues to overcome for many areas, and I'm afraid that's where we're headed. Still, it's Jan second, and it would be silly to cliff dive this early. Here's hoping!

Last year for Jan 1st, GSP was 30/15. Yesterday it was 68/52; can I trade? Per GSP, I'm only supposed to go below 40 once on Sat night, then it warms up again. Someone said back in the fall they were just hoping we wouldn't have a historically warm month this winter, well Jan could do it. THIS STINKS!

Yeah the rain has been incredible, crazy to see so many multi-inchers one after another. Seems we've been pretty paltry with the highs and the cold, other than our Dec storm, and even that was borderline for most. I remain hopeful, as even the upstate has nine more weeks we could legitmately see snow, but I'm getting that sinking feeling that many of the ingredients we were looking at a few weeks ago aren't coming together. Maybe I'm just being inpatient, as this is "supposed" to be a back loaded winter setup, but I just haven't seen too many signs of bona fide cold yet, anywhere in the country. I know the SSW event has the potential to help with that, but it may also not help us at all; and we always seem to be Charlie Brown with the SSW and -NOA being the footballs. I agree that MA and NE are probably golden this year, but we've got to get a lot in our boat south of NC to get anything. That's another reason why I hated to miss the big dog a couple weeks ago. Despite the common view it was a "bonus" snow, it could also end up having been our best chance all winter in this area. You never know, here's to a big pattern change after mid Jan! It's just a bit of a gut punch looking at the mid range forecasts and seeing nothing below normal for at least a couple weeks.

It's good to be north of I-40! I40 - I85; here's a tease. Everybody else; sorry Charlie I honestly don't know how to feel about things going forward. I think there is a lot of potential, but I am concerned about the lack of true cold so far, not just around here, but nationwide. Despite the early signs of blocking we still don't seem to be able to get that in winter, and it's frustrating we're already playing the SSW card in hopes of getting some to come our way. The only thing that seems to be working out is the (endless) rainfall, but we need the cold. When I say we, I mean everybody outside of NC that got burried a couple of weeks ago and have gotten in on several small events already. I said before I fear this is going to be an I-40 /north or even state line/north winter, despite all the positive factors leading in, and that fear has not abated.

Despite the western upstate screwzone, I fully agree CAE has it worse. We get leftovers, but that's better than nothing.

Yeah; I vaguely remember that conversation with Lookout, he knows only too well. He's absolutely correct; we have to have a stronger high, or a high that comes in sooner and locks in for CAD senarios, or the cold takes too long to get here and then loses out too quickly to the WAA. Those "cold in place" setups (Jan 88, Jan 2011) work well for us but those seem to only happen decades apart so we're not due for another 20 years or so...! Guess we'll have to settle for our penny and nickle (we don't get dime) events here.

With this one, you see not only the west/east cuttoff, but also the north/south downslopping cuttoff. It's amazing what a one thousand foot rise will do (Gville to Hendersonville for example). And you don't often see the same drastic cuttoff in the NC piedmont; sometimes, but not as often or pronounced.

And again, this is how it happens over and over in the upstate. This is the norm. Pretty frustrating.