Harry Perry

Should be interesting to see what happens here. Love that the front can indeed make it north of the MI/IN/OH and IL/WI border in the middle of winter, but never come spring… Stays along I-80 Every. Single. Time. Keeping the weather trash here and 70° and sunny 50 miles south.

00z NAM sticking to its guns.

Last Thursday at approximately 4:30, it was 29/30° With moderate FZRA, and it was freezing quickly on contact. Fortunately it only lasted about 45 minutes to an hour but turned everything into ice for the evening and the glaze stuck to the trees (could hear the crunching on the wind). My immediate thought was, “enough of this.” A week later I see that could’ve just been the appetizer. One hope is that most of the QPF will fall earlier in the day as plain rain prior the temps slipping just under that point of instant accretion during the late afternoon/evening as precip wanes.

I would agree, if temps end up a degree or two cooler though, it will not be pretty.

Ended up with 6.5” total here in Battle Creek. Definitely a bit more than expected. Fine flakes this morning turned into monsters this afternoon/evening. Nice event, was also nice that it was still - no wind and not all that cold 31-32° for the duration. Trees are all plastered with snowfall.

Ironically enough 21z SREF mean increased from 3.7” from 15z to 5”. Excellent lift in the DGZ for most of the duration of the event, wonder if heavier rates will lead to some dynamic cooling to help ratios out a bit. Going to go with 4” of concrete locally.

00z, 06z and 12z GFS all look like complete trash. Nothing really to speak of for anyone in the sub except for maybe an inch or two of slop for DTW. Ontario looks good. 06z Euro holding steady with a swath across I-69, but really local with not much outside of it. Still plenty of time for this system to fall completely of the tracks, which I have a hunch it’ll do.

Just got home, I live in a subdivision in the fringe of city limits. Not bad at all.

Me too! That would be an experience over there. Think it was the NAM Forecasting 94.5” over there. Just bizarre.

Everywhere and I mean literally everyone here closing early due to the “snow storm”. Garbage pick up is today and they called it off. No one on the roads/highway. Some ice on side/back roads but all other roads and highway is clear. Very windy, but visibility is pretty good. Filtered sun at times, very little if any snow accums today. Feels like a normal Michigan winter day.

This is rather lack-luster so far, and the back end of the snow is approaching quickly. Will be interesting to see what transpires, but the 3-6” by 1am looks to be in dire jeopardy.

Notable uptick for sure.

I think they’re sitting in a good spot now, I could see an upgrade to blizzard warning if the low continues to deepen more rapidly earlier than expected. Overnight shift or mid morning shift would likely pull the trigger on that. Or if they don’t they will just as the winds begin to die down and the snow rates drop Friday evening - in somewhat typical GRR fashion . One thing to note is (Bill Marino GRR AFD) mentions the uncertainty with 3+ hour of 1/4 mile visibility/less in the WSW zones, but I would say that it’s close enough to more than likely going to happen in the Eastern zones just as much if not more as the SLP deepens over the east side of the state. All headline verbiage and technical jargon aside. It’s going to feel like a blizzard.

Never a dull moment. What’s your prediction around our parts?

This. Albeit the November LES event was the most impressive I recall in recent times (over a foot of pure LES), this system will only enhance totals, but it’ll be interesting to measure. Think that might be a problem with 50mph gusts.

SREF or die

Meanwhile

Don’t throw the towel in yet. This is still 72 hours away. A lot ̶c̶a̶n̶ ̶ WILL change (for better or worse in the next 72 hours)

Bonus on the GFS, shows a decent clipper on the heals of the departing system. Starts Sunday evening and drops a few more inches across southern Minnesota, most of Iowa, northern Illinois, Indiana. Brings more moisture and lift into the DGZ for the LES belts - even with the disturbance passing south of the lakes, enough to squeeze another 1-3” for western lower Michigan, maybe more. Still a long way off.

Yeah, should make a thick crust of ice/slush beneath. Travel will be a nightmare. Nice hearing from you, been a minute.

More realistic, though ratios are cut due to high winds shredding the flakes.. 10:1 still snowing.

For the weenies…

Definitely a wound up storm but getting weaker on QPF every run.

With storms of this magnitude, we’re going to see wild fluctuations 96+ hours out. You don’t want to be in the bullseye at the moment. One thing is pretty certain, it’s going to be a massive system.