GaWx

-0Z ICON and CMC are threats to FL 0Z UKMET: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 16.7N 83.0W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 15.11.2024 84 16.6N 83.9W 1003 25 0000UTC 16.11.2024 96 16.4N 84.0W 1001 26 1200UTC 16.11.2024 108 15.7N 83.4W 1001 27 0000UTC 17.11.2024 120 15.3N 82.9W 1001 29 1200UTC 17.11.2024 132 15.4N 83.4W 1002 29 0000UTC 18.11.2024 144 16.3N 84.6W 1002 31 1200UTC 18.11.2024 156 17.8N 86.1W 1001 34 0000UTC 19.11.2024 168 20.7N 86.8W 999 38

We’ll probably get a RONI 3 month low point of sub -0.8.

12Z UKMET: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 14.4N 81.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 16.11.2024 120 14.4N 81.1W 1002 27 0000UTC 17.11.2024 132 14.3N 80.6W 1001 31 1200UTC 17.11.2024 144 13.9N 80.2W 1001 32 0000UTC 18.11.2024 156 14.3N 80.4W 1000 33 1200UTC 18.11.2024 168 14.8N 80.9W 999 33

Possibly headed well into the 160s due to next potential W Car TC.

159.8

Indeed the WCS daily is the highest in 2.5 months. But just for those who aren’t aware, NOAA has been running ~1 lower than WCS for a long time. So, the equivalent NOAA daily is ~~-2.89.

Here’s the 0Z 11/10/24 WB CFS 2m temp map for DJF with its typical badly flawed silliness (way too cold E half of US, extreme cold spot S Lake Michigan (8-9F BN, warm spot 250 miles to the NNE, colder N of that (3F AN):

In some locations for certain things I think there are 24 hour records also kept. But the gold standard is by calendar dates.

It is a solid W at 30 mb. Maybe that’s for a different altitude? https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

Check this out on today’s Euro Weeklies (similar to yesterday’s): the SPV stays near climo avg throughout

1. Today’s KSAV (well inland airport) rainfall of 4.35” set a new record high rainfall not just for today but for the entire month! The old Nov daily record was 4.13”, which was set Nov 18th, 1898. 2. Hunter (KSVN), which is much closer to me and to my amount, had even more, 5.67”! I don’t have daily records for Hunter. 3. These very high amounts for the date were helped by the heavy rain starting near midnight as opposed to being split by two days.

It finally lightened up but not after getting ~4+ of rain within a couple of hours and ~6” since midnight! But the damage is done. Lots of water is again in my garage. Came in from right garage door jamb (as I see it from inside) and then spread to portions of the left side. I looked outside and it appears the source is water coming up through a crack in the concrete right outside the door. Water appears to be coming through that crack from underneath the concrete!! This is crazy. NWS was slow but finally issued a FFW at 12:39PM, which was 1:40 after the heavy started and an hour after 3”+ had already fallen! BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1239 PM EST THU NOV 7 2024 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... BRYAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... CHATHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... * UNTIL 645 PM EST THURSDAY. * AT 1239 PM EST, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA. NUMEROUS ROADS ARE NOW FLOODED AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. SOME STRUCTURES MAY ALSO FLOOD OR BECOME ISOLATED. HAZARD...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS, URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES. * SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE... DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH, POOLER, RICHMOND HILL, AND TYBEE ISLAND.

After off and on light rain since 2AM, I’m getting heavy rain again just before 11AM. At 11:20AM, very heavy rain continues. I’ve received 1”+ during just the last ~25 minutes! 3”+ since midnight, a full Nov climo rain in just 12 hours! Streets are flooding. A little water now sneaking around one side of my garage door. This is what 70 F dewpoints can cause in Nov! Edit 11:35AM: still very heavy! ~2” last 40 minutes and ~4” since midnight! Current level of street:yard flooding is as bad as the worst of the summer. This includes Debbie, which while also bad and which gave me 11”, was over 3 days (a bit more spread out).

Over the last 1/2 hour (since midnight), I’ve had by far the heaviest rain since 9/25-7 (Helene related). It looks to continue for awhile per radar as it moves N from just offshore. Much further inland (Statesboro, Sylvania and other locations) there is ongoing flooding from another area of moderate to heavy rain that has been falling since late afternoon! Update at 1:20AM: It hasn’t stopped here and is now coming down the heaviest yet. Over the last 80 minutes, I’ve had >1”. That’s very heavy for early Nov. Update 1:47AM: Close to 2” has fallen over the last hour and 45 minutes.

Ida of 2009 may qualify.

Yes, QBO rose from Sep’s +8.61 to Oct’s +10.36 (at 30 mb): https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data My latest guess is for the peak month to be Dec with the most likely range for peak month being Nov-Jan.

The good news is that the Euro has a much stronger warm signal than dry signal in the NE US. At most some of the NE is barely in the lightest BN shade. So, there’s almost no signal to no signal on precip. there. There is a more notable dry signal in the SE US, especially deeper SE, which is consistent with La Niña climo.

Are you aware of a warmer E US outlook for winter from the Euro as of Nov 1st for past winters?

The newest WB Euro seasonal for winter is a bit warmer than the run from Oct for the Mid Atlantic, NE, and especially the Midwest (Dec and Feb are warmer than the prior run had while Jan is not as warm): Here was last month’s run:

I’m not necessarily buying into it. I just thought it was semi-noteworthy enough to post due to the change. It’s just one run (they often jump around) and it weakens it only to near normal at that not til the low accuracy end of the period. Even if it were to verify, it could go right back to strong obviously as ups and downs are common. In the meantime even it still suggests a mainly strong SPV for Nov 20 through Dec 15th. I’ll see what future runs show as I look for model trends like I usually do.

Today’s Euro Weeklies mean, while warm dominated til the end once again, have a change late (not on prior runs) toward a weakening SPV that approaches the climo avg fwiw:

10AM EST FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 15.2N 76.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 16.5N 77.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 18.2N 79.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 19.9N 80.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 21.7N 82.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 23.4N 83.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 24.6N 85.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 26.1N 87.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 27.4N 89.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Kelly

As of 10AM EST, this was upgraded to TD#18: 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 ...SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 76.9W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth, and a Tropical Storm Watch for Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas. Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters, satellite images, and surface observations indicate that the low pressure system over the south-central Caribbean Sea has developed a well-defined center and is producing organized deep convection. Therefore, the system now meets the criteria of a tropical depression. The maximum flight-level winds from the aircraft support holding the initial wind speed steady at 30 kt. Deep convection is gradually organizing near the center and in bands around it, especially on the south and east sides of the circulation. The depression has jogged a bit to the right of the previous track, and the initial motion estimate is now 010/8 kt. A turn to the northwest is expected later today, and that motion is forecast to continue during the next few days as a ridge builds over the southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean. This motion should take the center of the system near Jamaica tonight, near or over the Cayman Islands by late Tuesday, and across western Cuba on Wednesday. After that time, when the system reaches the Gulf of Mexico, the model solutions diverge, which appears to be due to differences in the steering patterns and vertical depth of the storm. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and remains close to the various consensus models. However, it should be noted that the track forecast over the Gulf of Mexico is of low confidence. The environmental factors of low wind shear, high moisture, and warm SSTs support intensification, and since the system now has a well organized circulation, there is increasing confidence of steady strengthening until the system reaches Cuba or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. In 3 or 4 days, when the system reaches the central Gulf, a sharp increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear, drier air, and slightly cooler waters should end the strengthening trend and induce weakening. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, fairly close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.

1. Thus, the difference between ONI and RONI has steadied out in the low to mid 0.50s after having peaked in the 0.60s earlier in the year. This makes me think it might not drop below 0.50 anytime soon. 2. Most SST anomaly measures have risen over the last week or so fwiw. Is it possible the low has already been reached? Opinions?

The following Jan-Mar after the very strong -PDO of 1894 was actually quite cold in most of the US. The PDO rose sharply to the -0.86 to -0.64 range during JFM. This included what is still the coldest Feb on record for the SE US and other locations.