GaWx

0Z EPS mean is E of the more threatening GEFS with very few in the Gulf and most members recurving E of the US. A nontrivial number still hit the E coast, however. So, a long way to go!

0Z Euro: heading N at 240 at 40N, 67W aiming toward E ME, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia

The mean of the 0Z GEFS is a bit further west than most of the recent runs implying a higher chance for a CONUS hit than those runs.

Good news on the 0Z UKMET, which has this for the first time: at the end it is moving N at 73W implying it would very likely miss the CONUS on this run. Please keep this far away! NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 22.5N 73.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 16.08.2024 168 23.1N 73.2W 1008 31 ———————— Edit: 0Z GFS recurves the AEW safely E of the US E coast (72-3W)

I checked my garage for the 1st time since the rain ended on Wednesday and noticed I have standing water in a small portion of my garage (along a wall) and that doors to a storage room on that side are wrinkled on the bottom despite the water having receded where they are. (see pic below) Also, cardboard boxes for things I’ve stored in there for years are damp up 6”. As stated earlier, I got 10.9” from Debby over a 3 day period.

I’m saying that regarding peak strength 2023-4 and despite similar ONI, I don’t think of 2023-4 as comparable to 2015-6 and 1997-8 due to a much cooler RONI. Therefore, I wouldn’t expect the 2023-4 SOIs to be anywhere near as negative as those for the other two. The other two dipped to as low as -20s for monthly SOI vs 2023-4 dipping to only the -10s. Thus I’m not surprised. When comparing to other Ninos of similar strength, I prefer to look at RONI. So, I looked back to 1950 to see what other El Niños had a RONI peak similar to 2023-4’s +1.49 peak. That’s when I found these with similar peak: 2009-10: +1.57 2002-3: +1.46 1994-5: +1.44 (I inadvertently left this out) 1986-7: +1.54 That’s all I meant by them being “close”. Close in RONI strength. I’m not saying they were necessarily close in any other way except for lowest SOI months as these 4 had lowest months in the -10s just like 2023-4, which makes sense from a RONI based strength point of view.

The 12Z EPS mean is E of the 0Z though still with a few members in the Gulf and a few others at SE FL. Most of the rest recurve offshore the E US though a notable number still either hit or barely miss the NE US. The NE US may very well be the portion of the CONUS, if any, to watch the most for potential impact from this. The next couple of days of ensemble runs will be telling as it is still too early to have a good feel for this, especially with no LLC yet.

As of yesterday morning’s update I had received 10.3” from Debby. I’ve since had an additional 0.6” to give me a Debby grand total (over 3 days) of 10.9”, easily the largest amount from a single event here since Matthew of Oct 7-8, 2016. Together with the 10” I got 7/19-8/3 from PM convection, I’ve received 20.9” during just the 20 day period of 7/19-8/7. Thus, any possible heavy rains from tropical or other during the next few weeks could be extra problematic.

As of yesterday morning’s update I had received 10.3” from Debby. I’ve since had an additional 0.6” to give me a Debby grand total (over 3 days) of 10.9”, easily the largest amount from a single event here since Matthew of Oct 7-8, 2016. Together with the 10” I got 7/19-8/3 from PM convection, I’ve received 20.9” during just the 20 day period of 7/19-8/7. Thus, any possible heavy rains from tropical or other during the next few weeks could be extra problematic.

As of yesterday morning’s update I had received 10.3” from Debby. I’ve since had an additional 0.6” to give me a Debby grand total (over 3 days) of 10.9”, easily the largest amount from a single event here since Matthew of Oct 7-8, 2016. Together with the 10” I got 7/19-8/3 from PM convection, I’ve received 20.9” during just the 20 day period of 7/19-8/7. Thus, any possible heavy rains from tropical or other during the next few weeks could be extra problematic.

Based on RONI peak, 2023-4 wasn’t even close to 15-6 and 97-8 and thus wasn’t that strong of an El Niño: 23-4: +1.49 moderate/strong border 15-6: +2.39 well into super 97-8: +2.36 well into super Based on RONI, 23-4 was close to 2009-10, 2002-3, and 1986-7: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 251 AM EDT THU AUG 8 2024 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN NASH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... SOUTHWESTERN WILSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... NORTHEASTERN JOHNSTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 315 AM EDT. * AT 250 AM EDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WILSON, OR 20 MILES SOUTH OF NASHVILLE, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 35 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES, BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... BAILEY AROUND 255 AM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE EMIT, SIMS, LUCAMA, BUCKHORN RESERVOIR, AND MIDDLESEX.

TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 221 AM EDT THU AUG 8 2024 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... SOUTHERN WILSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 300 AM EDT. * AT 220 AM EDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF SNOW HILL, OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FARMVILLE, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 30 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES, BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... EUREKA AROUND 225 AM EDT. BLACK CREEK AROUND 235 AM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE SARATOGA, LUCAMA, BLACK CREEK, EUREKA, AND STANTONSBURG. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT, A LARGE, EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE, TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS, IN A MOBILE HOME, OR IN A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 23A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 200 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 ...DEBBY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR BULLS BAY SOUTH CAROLINA... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND WESTERN VIRGINIA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.0N 79.6W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

I’ve been concerned about the Fayetteville/Ft Liberty area, especially for very heavy rain, as I have family there. Check out these 11PM conditions FORT LIBERTY HVY RAIN 77 75 94 NE16G22 29.64F VSB 1 FAYETTEVILLE RAIN 77 74 90 NE31G52 29.61F FOG Gusts to 52 at Fayetteville? Wow! Look out power outages!

I feel pretty confident that this CFS will end up too cold with this -1.4 ONI prog.

Down in Richmond Hill (SW of Savannah), a friend of mine said she had the heaviest rain of the entire storm with that orange band that came across just in the last hour!

I can’t answer since I don’t know. I don’t see a particular GFS ens control run.

However, the much more credible 12Z Euro ensemble (since this is 10 days out) has only ~50% that are safe recurves with regard to CONUS, which is a lower % than recent runs. The rest are either close or actually hit the US, mainly E coast vs Gulf. NC northward and the NE in particular looks to be potentially at risk as much as any US region on this run anyway.

The 12Z Euro has an AEW that crosses Hispaniola and then leads to a TC forming in the SE Bahamas by 216 and that turns NNE aiming for W of Bermuda at 240 as it recurves due to a trough.

Models have been consistently showing periods of heavy rain for much of well inland NC starting late tonight S areas going through tomorrow more areas and lingering into tomorrow night N areas. Meanwhile, I’ve been getting some moderate rain from showers rotating on the backside, well away from the center, with more to come this afternoon. So, will add some more to the 10.3” total that I had already received at last check.

12Z UKMET: Whereas the 0Z went in just NE of CHS, the 12Z is a little further NE ~midway between CHS and Georgetown. Then goes NNW to near Charlotte then turns NNE to inland in the NE US:TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 32.0N 79.4WATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042024LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------1200UTC 07.08.2024 0 32.0N 79.4W 996 360000UTC 08.08.2024 12 32.6N 79.3W 995 321200UTC 08.08.2024 24 33.6N 79.5W 997 340000UTC 09.08.2024 36 34.7N 80.6W 999 321200UTC 09.08.2024 48 37.8N 79.9W 999 310000UTC 10.08.2024 60 42.2N 76.6W 996 341200UTC 10.08.2024 72 47.1N 70.2W 990 340000UTC 11.08.2024 84 49.7N 64.9W 989 371200UTC 11.08.2024 96 50.0N 57.0W 992 350000UTC 12.08.2024 108 CEASED TRACKING

I’ve gotten an additional 1.8” since ~6PM yesterday for an updated total so far of ~10.3”, easily the largest amount from a single event since Matthew of early Oct of 2016. There’s still on and off light rain falling and it’s breezy here on the backside. Here’s a SE Debby thread for those who haven’t seen it:

Further to the above’s 8.5”, I’ve gotten an additional 1.8” since ~6PM yesterday for an updated total so far of ~10.3”, easily the largest amount from a single event since Matthew of early Oct of 2016. There’s still on and off light rain falling and it’s breezy here on the backside. @buckeyefan1please pin this thread. Thanks.

Further to the above’s 8.5”, I’ve gotten an additional 1.8” since ~6PM yesterday for an updated total so far of ~10.3”, easily the largest amount from a single event since Matthew of early Oct of 2016. There’s still on and off light rain falling and it’s breezy here on the backside.