GaWx

More 12Z for 40% AEW: -UKMET (goes through 180) still has no TC from this -GFS: back to nothing of note at sfc through Caribbean after 0Z and especially 6Z had something -GEFS: quietest run since 12Z yesterday but still has at least ~6 solid TCs -CMC is still not completely out as of 2:05PM (evidently Mr. Slowsky is running it today): at 210 is a cat 1 H moving NW toward W Cuba -Euro 240: halfway between Grand Cayman and Isle of Youth at 1003 mb moving slowly NW

For 40% AEW: 12Z ICON has a strengthening cat 2 H at 180 hrs 100 miles SE of D.R. moving NW toward there

Last 4 Euro-AI have this go across Yucatan, Bay of Campeche, and back into MX for final landfall. If we were already in a moderate to strong La Niña (per RONI), I’d favor the Euro-AI more. But with it being only weak, I’m hesitant to bet on this far S track as weak Niña tend to have further N tracks. Of course, these are merely generalities and thus any one storm is still going to be all over the map as far as possible tracks.

The ante may be going way up within just a few days after Sept 1 as you alluded to based on 0Z/6Z guidance. A MH is being shown as a legit possibility. So, whereas there won’t be one 8/20-9/1, there may be one by, say, 9/4. How would that affect your analysis? Neither 2000 nor 2022 had their 2nd MH of the season til 9/20+.

0Z/6Z model consensus became much more aggressive with this, which jumped from 20% to 40% at 8AM per the above.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave over the central Tropical Atlantic Ocean is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph and approaches the Lesser Antilles. The system is then forecast to move westward to west-northwestward across portions of the eastern Caribbean Sea during the middle part of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Reinhart

Wow, this is bizarre! To review, 23 straight EC-AIFS runs from 6Z 8/19 through 18Z 8/24 had TCG ~9/2 near the Leewards. Then the next 15 had nothing (not even a weak sfc low) anywhere around there. Now all of the sudden, the 18Z 8/28 EC-AIFS has a weak sfc low (though not a TC) that forms on 9/2 near the central Lesser Antilles (so a little S of those 23 runs).

A Sept. to remember which way though?

I agree that the colder WB control runs are the ones posted by people, including JB. And I know that the TT runs are an average of 3 days of runs (12 runs). But I maintain that the WB CFS map related algorithms are highly flawed based on the many insanely cold WB CFS control runs that I’ve posted about both here and especially in the NY forum. For one, why are there so many record cold winter WB CFS runs in the first place? If there were an apples to apples comparison to other sources’ individual control runs, I’d bet very heavily they wouldn’t be nearly as cold. Secondly, these record cold runs almost always have a warm spot near N Lake Michigan/Michigan while S Lake Michigan is much colder/near record cold! The example below has anomalies of +2C in N L Mich while a mere 250 miles S it is -7C, a difference of 9C/16F, for Jan ‘25! No way! These are big hints that these maps are heavily flawed. And note the multiple areas of -7C/-13F scattered throughout the E US. These are all near all time record cold for Jan. These maps are essentially fake news as far as I am concerned. JB posting them is irresponsible but he doesn’t care. @donsutherland1follows these along with me and agrees with my assessment of JB and these ridiculous WB CFS maps. I used to be skeptical of this but I now believe that these are being used by them for marketing purposes. Also, anything that promotes cold is consistent with JB not believing in AGW as being significant. By the way, he’s now promoting an article stating in its headline that the Atlantic is now cooling at a record pace when in reality the article is saying that only a portion of the equatorial E Atlantic has cooled at a record pace since March. Lmao. He’s now taking that ridiculous misinformation and implying that the globe is now cooling due to decreased underwater seismic activity. I kid you not!

You must mean the fake WxBell frigid CFS control runs. The real CFS runs per TT are mild.

12Z runs for lemon: 1. ICON still has a very weak low that gets into the E Caribbean. 2. Crazy Uncle has a H off the E coast of FL at 240 moving NNW after having nothing the prior two runs and a TS in the SE Bahamas three runs ago. 3. GFS has very little but 20% (6) GEFS have a H with 3 of those hitting or threatening the NE Caribbean. 4. UKMET: nothing classified as a TC through 180 5. Euro: following H7 vorticity one can trace a weak 240 hour W Car sfc low to this. The Control then goes from there into the NC Gulf as a strengthening TS and then recurving. Edit: EPS has a good number of members that are similar to the Control implying there could be a threat to the US gulf coast ~9/9-11.

I’m not predicting that since it isn’t really predictable imho, but it could as the atmosphere cools as it has happened before. 1950 is a good example, with 8 NS forming then including 2 MH. 2020 had 3 MH in Oct, the most of any month that year. 2010 had 5 H that month.

It sounds like they don’t know. Too many different things mentioned. They mentioned the Atlantic equatorial cooling but weren’t clear about that leading to quiet. I’m still suspicious of something not mentioned in this, the record warm middle latitudinal E and C Atlantic. We’ll see whether or not yesterday’s Euro weeklies are going to be right about waiting til late Sept for a more active than normal period. In the meantime I’m enjoying the reduced stress here near the coast thanks to the quiet. If it were to stay quiet for the rest of the season (highly doubtful), I won’t be complaining.

So, is the current significant drop in Nino 3.4 finally going to take ONI down into weak La Niña territory? I suspect it is but it obviously remains to be seen. At least now the SOI is supportive.

I want to make sure you realize that that’s Andy Hazleton’s tweet that I posted, not JB’s.

This image illustrates well how the headlines related to the record speed of cooling of the eastern Atlantic equatorial region is leading to confusion. It’s even now leading to at least one well-known pro met. to say it is likely related to decreased underwater seismic activity and means a significant drop in the average world temperature. I think he’s confused and doesn’t realize that this record cooling is for just a very small portion of the Atlantic. Aside: This cooling is leading some pro mets to suspect that the current quiet of the tropical MDR is partially related to this along with record warmth in the middle latitudes of the E and C Atlantic.

Today’s Euro Weeklies could be nicknamed “A Tale of Two Seasons”: - Weeks 1-3 (9/2-22): remain only at ~50% of climo overall. These haven’t changed much for days other than a gradual decline. - Week 4 (9/23-29/new week “on the block”): the first forecast for that week is for 120% of climo and it follows the prior week’s modest 70%. So, it’s seeing some kind of sudden change. If it were a reversion to climo, it would be only at 100%, not 120%. Also, this is the first time there has been any week at 120%+ since the 8/16 run. Will be interesting to follow. Any thoughts?

I’m sure that it is still too early to cancel the rest of the season due to uncertainty, but I’m not (and nobody else can possibly be) sure about how busy/quiet the rest of the season will be.

Just joking around because you said you’re close to giving up. It really is way, way too early to “season cancel” imho.

I don’t think it was a good idea to pin the contest thread and no others. This one is way busier and the contest won’t end for several months. Or at least pin this one and the other current tropical threads as well. Other opinions?

It’s strange. Out of the 10 listed day 8 analogs, 8 of the 10 are from El Niño late August or Septembers: 3 from 2009, 2 from 2006, 1 from 1987, 1 from 1972, and 1 from 1953. The only 2 not Nino are from 2003 and 1981, both neutral. So, no dates from La Nina are listed! Is this significant or is it just a not unusual short period that goes against the grain and will go back to La Niña soon?

Nino 3.4 appears to be steadily cooling now: OISST: CDAS: Buoys: E 3.4 is the coolest I’ve seen it and has been cooling rather rapidly the last few days even though it’s still warm in Nino 4: SOIs have gone solidly positive 11 days and look to continue.