GaWx

It looks like 2” at Central Park in 2009 when it was measured that was left from a big snow 12/19-20 but it was melting rapidly due to rain falling and thus was gone by 12/26: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx

Every one of these 5 indicators is at the coldest of the season to date clearly indicative of a rapidly strengthening La Niña to near weak/moderate Niña border on the dailies and suggesting equivalent RONI dailies probably at least high end moderate to quite possibly bordering on strong. This means a Nov to Dec cooling likely one of the strongest back to 1950 though not near the 0.8 record shattering cooling suggested by many earlier CFS runs: OISST: -0.98 C CRW: -0.95 C CDAS: -1.43 C Buoys: coldest below -1.5 C near equator along entire Nino 3.4: OHC: 0.6 C plunge just since late Nov to -1.1 C

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 917 AM EST TUE DEC 24 2024 ..SNOWFALL REPORTS LOCATION AMOUNT TIME/DATE PROVIDER ..NEW JERSEY ..BERGEN COUNTY OAKLAND 1.0 IN 0800 AM 12/24 COCORAHS MONTVALE 1.8 ESE 0.8 IN 0800 AM 12/24 COCORAHS RIVER EDGE 0.5 IN 0840 AM 12/24 PUBLIC ..ESSEX COUNTY MONTCLAIR 0.5 IN 0800 AM 12/24 COCORAHS ..HUDSON COUNTY HARRISON 1.0 IN 0800 AM 12/24 COOP ..PASSAIC COUNTY WEST MILFORD 1.1 IN 0720 AM 12/24 COCORAHS ..UNION COUNTY NEW PROVIDENCE 0.6 IN 0730 AM 12/24 COCORAHS ..NEW YORK ..ORANGE COUNTY 0.8 N PORT JERVIS 2.5 IN 0700 AM 12/24 COOP PORT JERVIS 1.8 IN 0800 AM 12/24 COCORAHS 1 WNW MONROE 1.6 IN 0805 AM 12/24 PUBLIC ..PUTNAM COUNTY NELSONVILLE 0.3 S 1.4 IN 0715 AM 12/24 COCORAHS ..ROCKLAND COUNTY STONY POINT 0.5 IN 0700 AM 12/24 COCORAHS ..WESTCHESTER COUNTY CROTON-ON-HUDSON 1.3 IN 0850 AM 12/24 PUBLIC ARMONK 0.8 IN 0800 AM 12/24 COCORAHS SOUTH SALEM 0.5 IN 0755 AM 12/24 COCORAHS

So, are you saying Newark needs another 1.5” from this morning’s snow? I see that it had snow and only 1/2 mile visibility at 8AM. That sounds pretty significant if it had continued for awhile.

Chris, it appears NYC will get close to the 3” mark for snow in Dec that you follow during La Niña.

The bc GEFS and EPS continue to predict an MJO that would be weak left side of diagram for early Jan (see below). As mentioned, 7 of 8 similar cases during Jan for cold ENSO during last 50 years were concurrently cold dominated in the E US. Weak MJO (near or inside circle) has tended to be concurrently colder than strong for all phases in Jan after all cases were averaged. So, my hope would be for it to remain weak when later coming around on the right side: GEFS: EPS:

What a nasty late afternoon here with breezy drizzly and only 42.6 F now. CAD at its best/worst! This is easily the coldest afternoon of the season yet! I may not get a walk in. 10:45PM: Down to 41.1 with light rain. The cold has a real bite to it. 11:30PM 40.8 with light rain

Indeed, it is easily the coldest overall yet! Jan 6-12 is a whopping 5-7 F colder in the N Rockies to N Plains to Chicago vs yesterday as the strongest cold now aims to come into the US further west with the H5 ridge now a bit further offshore the W coast (stronger -EPO/weaker +PNA) and a further S piece of the TPV into N Hudson Bay. Temps in the NE are slightly colder and the SE is ~same as yesterday. Jan 13-19 is also significantly colder vs yesterday/easily coldest overall yet especially NE US to Midwest with the H5 ridge also a bit further offshore.

Wow, a rise of 0.4 more the last 2 days! NOAA equivalent daily is likely up to ~-1.64 vs a low of ~~-4 Oct 10!

The MJO forecasts toward weak left side are what make me think the recent GFS suite trend is mainly a head fake or temporary at worst and that the E US will likely be dominated by cold in much of Jan 1-20+. Also, a (near) record +PNA in Dec for cold ENSO is encouraging for Jan +PNA prospects as has been posted about. Fingers crossed I found 8 cases of weak left side MJO (similar to the images below) in cold ENSO in Jan with 7 of the 8 cases being concurrently cold dominated (posted in detail over the weekend): In addition, the early Jan progged -AO is on the side that supports E US cold.

The MJO forecasts are what make me think the recent GFS suite trend is mainly a head fake or temporary at worst and that the E US will likely be dominated by cold in much of Jan 1-20+. Fingers crossed. *Edit: Also the (near) record Dec +PNA for cold ENSO is encouraging for Jan +PNA prospects per analogs.

All commodity markets inherently have high levels of gambling. Not for the faint of heart! I’d say that market typically reacts to already existing model trends more than it predicts model trends. That’s why I like to mention its trends. This morning it reacted to what the last few models have shown. Even the latest EPS lost some HDDs.

The last few GFS suites especially have trended toward the initial cold in January coming down further west vs what was showing late last week through early yesterday. Hoping that would be temporary or better yet a head-fake. Interesting times in the forecasting discussion world!

I’m seeing what appears to be a trend toward the early Jan cold dumping more into the W US vs E US vs what was showing on runs late last week through early yesterday. Hoping that would be temporary and/or the trend is a head-fake. *Edit: This is especially the case on recent GFS/GEFS more than the others. Natural gas, which hit new highs on Fri, has been dropping back some the last few hours and most noticeably since 8AM EST. That market could be considering this recent trend, which would be bearish for NG demand if reflecting reality.

Today’s forecasted GEFS AO is getting quite low, sub -2 mean and still falling at the end. It averages ~-2 for Jan 1-5: Here are the 13 1950+ cold ENSO Jans with Jan 1-5 averaging sub -1.5 AO together with the full Jan avg temps anomaly (based on each respective 30 year climo period) at Baltimore (proxy for E US): 2021 -2.9 +2 2014 -1.5 -7 2011 -2.9 -4 2009 -1.7 -5 2008 -1.6 +1 2001 -2.6 -1 1997 -1.8 -1 1996 -2.0 -2 1985 -2.3 -4 1965 -2.4 -2 1963 -3.6 -4 1955 -2.6 -2 1951 -2.4 +3 AVG -2; 1 MBN (2014); 7 BN; 3 NN; 2 AN (2021, 1951) So, this fwiw implies a notably better chance for BN than AN for Jan 2025 at Baltimore (as a proxy for the E US) assuming todays GEFS AO forecast for Jan 1-5 will verify pretty well.

I don’t include Mar as part of winter. I’m talking met winter (DJF) since Mar normal temps are significantly higher (early met spring). I agree that many (though not me) just focus on snowfall and thus I agree with what you’re saying that many would think fail if cold but not snowy. But again not all think this way.

If the cold domination hangs on through Jan 15 and possibly as late as Jan 20, we’d be looking at the high likelihood that both Dec and Jan would end up averaging NN to BN in much of the E US, something you didn’t expect in advance per your posts. I certainly didn’t expect this then. So, even if Feb is mild (still quite possible as often is the case in La Niña…I favor it as of now), this winter is likely going to end up significantly colder than we had expected.

The bc MJO forecasts for early Jan from GEFS/EPS continue to be in the general vicinity of what has often during cold ENSO coincided with cold in much of the E US in Jan, that being just outside, near, or within the left half of the circle (7 out of the 8 cases that I found: 2022 2nd half, 2000 late, 1999 early, 1996 and 1994 (1st halves), 1982 late, and 1976 early). The only failure was the mild middle of Jan of 2023.

The last 6 days of Euro Weeklies runs have had measurable snow into far N FL on the mean!

Today was a near perfect day for a late afternoon walk with low 50s, sunshine, and a light breeze. Todays KSAV high of 56 is 7 BN. The low of 37 is 5 BN. Loving it!

Oct-Dec PDO rises of 1.25+ during cold ENSO since 1854: 1878, 1882, 1892, 1894, 1910, 1921, 1924, 1943, 1949, 1962, 2000, 2005, 2007 2024 will likely join these

That’s the highest daily WCS since Apr per the chart. Equivalent NOAA likely now down to only -2 from ~~-4 ~Oct 10! MTD ~~-2.5 to -2.8 but rising and could mean full Dec will be ~-2.2 to -2.6 (or ~~-2.4) vs Nov’s -3.24 and Oct’s -3.78. That could mean a top 11-15 Oct-Dec rise (back 170 years).

We’re still on pace for a shot at a new record high Dec PNA for non-Nino. Current projections are close to the +1.58 of 2020. Keep in mind that the tabular monthlies tend to be ~1.8 times the mean of the dailies. Current highest tabular Dec +PNA for non-Nino: 2020: +1.58 1960: +1.46 1985: +1.39 2005: +1.38 2000: +1.23 Where were the subsequent Jan tabular PNAs for these non-Nino high +PNA Dec? 2021 +0.19 1961 +1.41 (4th highest on record for non-Nino) 1986 +0.97 (tied for 7th highest on record for non-Nino) 2006 +0.43 2001: +1.51 (3rd highest on record for non-Nino) Avg Jan for these 5: +0.90 So, as @Stormchaserchuck1 was suggesting (actually he was suggesting for all ENSO), +PNA in Dec tends to carryover into Jan for non-Nino. Three of the 5 did strongly and one weakly. The other (2020-1) went to neutral. So, none even went to a weak -PNA. But caution is advised due to the sample size being small.

Spot on, Chuck! Last evening I discovered there’s a really good 3-4 week outlook archives section (issued once/wk since 2015-6). For the SE quadrant of the US, yesterday’s is THE most impressive for Jan (I mean based on % chance for BN) on record! It beat out the prior most impressive for Jan, that for 1/16-29/2016, a period that verified well in the SE quadrant with 4-6 BN. It had a major winter storm and flurries as far south as Gainesville, FL!

The week 3/4 outlook website has a great archive section. I just took a look at all winter week 3/4 outlooks since they started 2015-6. I can confirm that today’s, with all but the S 1/2 of FL in 60-70% BN chances, is easily THE coldest week 3/4 outlook for the SE as a whole for Jan on record! The 2nd coldest for Jan was issued for Jan 16-29, 2016: 1/16-29/2016 verified very well with the solid cold of 4-6 BN. Also, there was a major winter storm N GA/Carolinas. In addition, flurries fell as far S as Gainesville, FL. (I was there) @pcbjr Could the SE, including Deep South, have a similarly cold and wintry two week period to 1/16-29/2016? Based on today’s coldest week 3/4 forecast on record for Jan, the extended models, Dec cold/strong +PNA analogs, and a decent chance to have an MJO largely near or inside the circle starting on left side, I wouldn’t at all discount this possibility. Could this finally be when the widespread SE major winter storm drought ends?? Was this the coldest week 3/4 outlook on record for the SE for ALL met winter from an absolutes standpoint? There’s only one other that can compare, the one for 2/9-22/2019 (see below). But that one was for a period with avg normals ~3F warmer than those pertaining to today’s week 3/4 outlook. Thus, I’d say today’s is the coldest week 3/4 outlook for the SE on record in terms of implied absolutes being forecasted for all met. winter!