GaWx

I think I’m going to go ahead and order two Anker 521 Portable Power Stations to have in case of a bad icestorm: https://www.anker.com/products/a1720? I figured two better than one in case it’s real bad/lengthy outage and can them in different rooms at same time. Cost each $160 on Amazon Prime. Can get them on Saturday if order soon. They are 256 Wh with 6 port Powerhouse, 300 watt (peak 600 watt), solar generator, 2 AC outlets (has car socket fwiw). Hopefully this would be powerful enough to power my fridge a few hours a day, a space heater, my cell phone, etc. I figure having two would allow me to power the fridge on one and I could have the other in my bedroom for space heater, cell, etc. Hopefully im thinking this through correctly. I don’t fully know what I’m doing to be honest, but reading the much appreciated advice here and elsewhere tells me this would hopefully do what I’d need. And I could always return one or both within 30 days if I don’t use them. @dsaur @WarmNoseHater @SnowDawg Edit: I may also buy extra bags of ice just in case to help keep things cold. Also, with it cold outside, I’d be able to put some things outside I suppose if need be while the cold hangs on.

Due to NW trend 12Z to 18Z: Suppression risk % in relation to SE GA lowered on 18Z GEFS vs 12Z from 15-16 to 11 of 30 members. Also, # of EPS members with snow rose from 12Z to 18Z Sav: 26 to 36 Waycross: 24 to 31 @metallica470

The 18Z GFS was an improvement vs the 12Z from the persoective of most here I’d think.

-SAV hasn’t had even a trace of wintry precip in 7 years -SAV has had more snow than RDU only twice in the last 138 winters (1.4% of the winters): 1. 1985-6: RDU 0.9”; SAV 1.4” 2. 1989-90: RDU 2.7”; SAV 3.6” -So, even if SAV were to get more snow than RDU (highly iffy as of this early) for the upcoming threat, the odds would be high that RDU would overtake them by winter’s end

With ATL already having had one major winter storm, I was thinking about how often they have had two or more within the same winter. Here are the ones per my files: -1/2000: 2 ZR 7 days apart -2/1979: ZR followed by 4.2” sleet 11 days later -1/1962: snow followed by ZR 9 days later -3/1960: ZR followed by another ZR 7 days later followed by snow 2 days later -1/1940: ZR followed by snow 16 days later -12/1935-1/1936: 2 ZRs 4 days apart followed by snow 28 days later -12/1917-1/1918: snow/sleet followed by ZR 39 days later -2/1905: 2 ZRs 3 days apart -2/1895: 2 snows 4 days apart -1/1885-2/1885: sleet/ZR followed by snow 20 days later ——————— Summary based on the above ATL history: -Multiple major winter storms occurred during 10 winters of the last ~145 or once every 15 on average…maybe more often than one might think -We’re currently in the longest period between these multiples as it has been 24 winters. Previous longest was 21 winters (1979 to 2000) -Days apart between the multiples: 2, 3, 4, 4, 7, 7, 9, 11, 16, 20, 28, 39 -If ATL were to have a major starting on 1/21, it would be 11 days after the prior one

12Z GEFS vs 12Z GEPS for SE GA 1/21-2: - much larger suppression risk GEFS (~50%) vs only 5% GEPS Waycross: 15 suppressed, 8 mainly SN/IP, 7 mainly ZR Savannah: 16 suppressed, 4 mainly ZR, 10 mainly snow 12Z EPS for 1/21-2: doesn’t show sleet or ZR -Waycross: 26 of 50 with snow (mean 1.1”) -Savannah: 24 of 50 with snow (mean 1.65”) @metallica470

This 12Z CMC ensemble precip type map below as of 1AM Wed morning illustrates the difficulty in trying to forecast the main precip type in SE GA for Tue/Wed: -Waycross: misses precip to suppression for one member (# 3); mainly rain only once (# 20); mainly snow/sleet for 9 members (#7 and #11 have snow on next frame); mainly ZR for 9 members -SAV: misses precip to suppression for one member (# 3); mainly snow/sleet for 13 members; mainly ZR for 6 members @metalicwx367 @gtg947h @Awesomesauce81

SAV has had more snow than GSP in the last 130+ years only 2 times: 1967-8 and 1989-90. So, only happened ~1.5% of winters.

That 12Z Euro snowfall would be the heaviest snowfall in decades for most of in and near the blue area from immediate SAV, which got a little less, ~2” of snow/sleet in Jan of 2018, to Alma, Waycross, Valdosta, Albany, TLH, and Pensacola. So, I’m taking with a huge grain for now, of course.

7 years for much of the deep SE since the last flake or pellet

Way better trend vs 0Z: 12Z 0Z

12Z Euro is back with the 1/21-2 winter storm: unlike the UK clown map, this is all snow and it is the more accurate Kuchera to boot:

Unfortunately for Savannah and nearby, that 6.7” is very likely mainly ZR and definitely not snow based on 850s because they’re largely +4 to +2C during when most of 0.80-0.90” of qpf falls while 2m is 31-32F. During hours 138-44, a good portion of that snow on the clown map is actually ZR or IP due to 850s being a few degrees above 0C.

Pivotal UK may be getting abused by weenies. 12Z warmer 2m/thicknesses at 132 vs 0Z at 144

12Z UKMET looking slightly warmer and slightly delayed with slightly lower pressure for the high as precip approaches. Snow line should be further north. Not good for my area because that could lead back to a mainly heavy ZR if there’s any wintry.

-2/12/2010 might have come very close in SC. I suppose Hilton Head and nearby did not have measurable and likely not 1”+ though. -Also close but no cigar in GA in parts of 1/1977 and perhaps not quite the required 1”+ for all of SC/GA 2/25/1914 even though SAV had 0.5” of sleet 2/25/1914. -But did your source miss 2/13-14/1899 for 1”+ in all of SC/GA? -SC/GA likely came pretty close in parts of mid 2/1895

0Z EPS snow mean: nothing like operational Members:

0Z Euro snow: one of jackpot winners is believe it or not Gainesville to Jacksonville! @pcbjr

Because the icestorm threat here is still persisting, I’d like to be prepared just in case. I don’t have a generator and don’t plan to buy a portable at the last minute (if I even can). What other measures could I take? Is there something I can get just to power my fridge? What about something like a “portable power station”? Would they be very helpful? I see that Amazon has them and I can’t get them fast. Can I plug my fridge into that? Also, for recharging my phone, what about something like that or instead maybe something less powerful like a small charging hub? If I got that would it help to get several instead of just one in case the power were to be out for days? I could always return extra ones I don’t use within 30 days I believe. Any advice would be appreciated!

I had been saying to give it through today (6 days out) to see if the common NW trend would finally get going as days 7-6 were when last week’s storm finally got a good trend NW and missed the coast. Well, it still hasn’t happened after all of these days. Clock is ticking fast now. This is at a crossroads. This is an uncommonly powerful, large and very cold/Siberian high in the picture this time. Last week it weakened rapidly to a falling apart 1020s high by the time it got close. In stark contrast, the Siberian high is progged to maintain 1040s to 1035 til when it is nearby to our north. With that in mind, with tonight’s 0Z runs being only within ~5.5 days, and with ensemble means getting beefier in the deeper SE, the chances of a NW trend finally taking away the deep SE/coastal significant wintry precip are dropping pretty fast now. If there’s none by 12Z tomorrow (~5 day point), this Jan 21-2 threat is likely going to be a rare storm that includes the SE coast in a significant way and not just affect well inland. If the coast ends up remaining in the winter storm picture and it’s mainly ZR, then that would mean a large portion of the well inland SE would probably have lots of snow and sleet. But if the coast were to end up with mainly snow, the heavier snow may not extend all that far inland…probably not more than 150 or so miles.

Sleet vs snow is a similar concept. 2” of sleet won’t typically melt faster than 6” of snow. I suspect it may even last longer on average. Sleet can be tough to melt in the shade!

Tony, I’ve been able to find only two other instances with at least about that much here: late Jan of 1922 (predecessor storm to tragic Knickerbocker Theatre storm in DC) and late Feb of 1914 (that one also had a decent amount of sleet). Early Jan of 2018 had a good bit but less than half that and thus limited outages. So, yes climo says not impossible but heck no unless we get a 100 year storm.

Jacksonville, FL has a whopping 0.7” on the 18Z GEFS for 1/21-2! That’s near 10 times the normal annual. Just unreal. This run has easily the heaviest snow mean yet for coastal SC to Jacksonville to Gainesville to the coast of LA! Nine members have snow at Jacksonville! @pcbjr

NWS CHS for SAV: don’t see this every day MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY MOSTLY SUNNY. MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. MONDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. TUESDAY PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 20 IN THE MORNING. TUESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 20. WEDNESDAY MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 20 IN THE MORNING.

Only one of our 3 TV stations seems to be talking about a threat Tue-Thu. NWS CHS: AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY AND BEYOND, THE FORECAST BECOMES EXCEEDINGLY TRICKY AND ALSO POTENTIALLY VERY IMPACTFUL. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS BROADLY AGREE THAT WE WILL HAVE VERY COLD AIR COINCIDENT WITH PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OR OFF THE COAST. VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT. HOWEVER, CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION, PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS, AND SPECIFIC IMPACTED AREAS. ALL SCENARIOS ARE ON THE TABLE, INCLUDING SEEING LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL.