GaWx

That's an interesting point. However, also keep in mind that none of 1954, 1915, 1908, and 1892 had a preceding strong El Nino.

After pretty much being on its own having had nearly a week's worth of runs showing almost all hurricanes at peak in the E or C Caribbean, the 12Z GFS has no more than a TD to possibly low end TS from this on the entire run! That's pretty bad imho though it was fortunately pretty predictable due to doing this kind of thing on its own at times in the past. And now this run could turn out to be too weak! Edit: The 12Z EPS retains the idea of a possible 2nd TC (if the initial Car mandarin low actually has TCG) in or near the SW Caribbean in early November. Edit: Regarding the "mandarined" low, the Happy Hour GFS more than likely is not even showing a TD with at most a weak TD for a short period. Too funny!

Regarding your linked article: 1. I don't think that the current triple dip La Nina is all that notable from a climate perspective. Per both the NOAA ONI table that goes back to 1950 and Eric Webb's ENSO SSTA table that goes back earlier, there were these triple dipping cold ENSO periods: A) 1892-3, 93-4, 94-5 B)1908-9, 09-10, 10-1 C) 1915-6, 16-7, 17-8 D) ASO of 1954, OND of 55, JAS of 56 E) 1973-4, 74-5, 75-6 F) 1983-4, 84-5, 85-6 G) 1998-9, 1999-2000, 2000-1 H) 2020-1, 21-2, 22-3 So, other than the longer period between the triple dips of the 1910s and 1950s, these have occurred 7-22 years apart since the late 1800s. The current one started 22 years after the start of the prior one. So, I don't see it being that notable that we're now in a triple dip as it was kind of due. 2. The same article refers to a cooling trend between 1979 and 2020 in much of the E Pacific off of S.A. Well, 2020 was the start of the current triple dip La Niña. And 1979 was going into a weak El Niño. So, if this is merely based on the difference between 1979 and 2020, then obviously it was notably cooler in 2020 than in 1979 off of S.A. That isn't due to a longer term trend but rather due to a short term cooling in 2020 due to La Niña as the image below shows. What if the ending point had been during the super El Niño of 2015 instead of 2020? The trend from 1979 off of S.A. would have been warmer rather than cooler. https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

In addition to the potential that this first TC forms in the central Caribbean in a few days, the model consensus is suggesting that a 2nd TC may form in or near the SW Caribbean during the first few days of November. That includes the 0Z UKMET and yesterday's 12Z UKMET in addition to other models like the Euro, ICON, and GFS. The EPS, GEFS, and GEPS also are suggesting this has a good chance to occur. So, as crazy as it sounds, don't be surprised if we get both Lisa and Martin form in the Caribbean next week.

The 12Z Euro has a weak closed low form in the C Car, the first run doing that. Prior runs have had no more than a very weak low and that in the W Car. Let's see if this is the start of a trend on the Euro.

0Z GFS: no TCG until the C Car. Much more reasonable. Edit: But then it forms a 2nd one behind it in the C Car that goes east lol. I'm not counting this part as reasonable lmao.

The 12Z Euro and UKMET continue with no TCG at all. However, they both have weak lows in the SW Car day 6+ that will need to be watched for potential TCG due to more favorable conditions, considering what the 12Z CMC and ICON as well as yesterday's 12Z JMA show, noting that climo favors that area over all others, La Nina climo, and recent decades of increased activity late in the season: Oct 21-31 geneses: (add two more to this in the W Car for 2016-21) Nov 1-10 geneses:

For some reason, Tidbits doesn't have either the 0Z or 6Z GFS. But I later found them at Pivotal and Weathernerds. I have a lot of doubt that the GFS, ICON, and CMC are actually developing the same wave. What do others think? Based on what it has done many times in the recent past (~25 runs in a row in mid May in the W Car for example that turned out to be nothing), I still think the GFS is drunk with its E Car TCG into a H while still in the E Car. I'm also considering climo as well as the Euro and UKMET not having an E Car TCG. Looking closely at the 0Z UKMET maps, all it has is a very weak low (1012 mb) at the ABC Islands (12N, 69W) at hour 84 (a far different scenario vs the GFS) that then moves westward with no TCG into the far SW Car. It finally develops some in the far SW Car while still moving westward and ends up at 1007 mb at hour 168 near 11N, 82W (150 miles E of the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border). I'm still sticking with a C or W Car TCG, if there is any, by early to mid next week and expect no more than a weak low in the E Car preceding that possibility later this week that moves westward just N of SA.

Sound familiar? Back in mid May, there were something like 25 GFS runs in a row with W Caribbean TCG that lead to modeled H landfalls in many cases while other models were mainly quiet. Then about a week after the first run with it, the GFS dropped it and never was heard from about this timeframe again. I think that's likely what's happening now with its E Car TCG. I suspect it will at some point throw in the towel on E Car TCG. Perhaps then it will change to a much more reasonable C or W Car TCG. Even the 0Z CMC has TCG in the C Car.

The 0Z CMC with its CCar TCG is a much more believable scenario vs the GFS SECar TCG. I don't see the 0Z GFS on Tidbits. Where did you see it?

Maybe so/we'll see or maybe it has also been sniffing something. Can anyone recall the last time the GFS with some support from the ICON sniffed out something in the Caribbean like this? We can follow the wave whose vorticity the GFS is focusing on as it is centered near 9-10 N, 51W.

I think that the GFS has been smoking the crack pipe for days, but now we can add Happy Hour's effects to the mix.

Regarding the now cherry nearing Bermuda, aka Invest 94L, the Euro/UKMET/GFS takes the LLC to the Cape Cod to Maine corridor Wednesday. Here's the relevant part of the TWO that indicates it is now likely to be designated a TD shortly: Central Subtropical Atlantic: Satellite and Bermuda radar images indicate that the low pressure system located about 100 miles east-southeast of Bermuda now has a well-defined center and is producing a relatively concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. If the thunderstorm activity persists near the center, the disturbance will likely become a tropical depression later today or tonight while it moves west-northwestward and passes near Bermuda. After that time, the system is expected to turn northward and move toward cooler waters and into a region of unfavorable upper-level winds, which should limit additional development. Regardless of development, periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over Bermuda through tonight. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

I'm wary of the GFS overdevelopment bias this season in the southern Caribbean off of South America and it could be coming into play here. The 12Z ICON doesn't have actual TCG until the C Caribbean and it isn't more than a TS as of hour 180. That's the best support the GFS has. And sometimes the ICON has overdone things this season. The 12Z CMC has only a very weak low and no TCG. The 12Z UK, Euro, and JMA have very little til a weak low in the SW Car. That's the part of the Car that I have more interest in for TCG (next week). These model wars make these forecasting threads extra fun! The GFS is developing this at least partially from vorticity located now per the model near 9N, 50W. I wonder how it is looking there right now.

Having already realized that FL as well as other areas in the W basin may very well still be at risk again before the end of the season based especially on recent La Niña climo, here's my take on this potential system fwiw: After having the two weakest runs since the 6Z 10/21 run at 12Z and 18Z yesterday and thus looking to me like it was quite possibly getting close to giving up on a H in the E Car, these last 3 (0Z, 6Z, 12Z) have been the strongest in the E Car! I still think the exclusive to GFS idea of a H in the E Car from this is out to lunch based on a combo of bias, relative lack of model support, and climo and that a TCG from this, if any, would thus wait til the C or W Caribbean, but we'll see. The GFS has done this kind of thing in the past where it would stubbornly hold onto a H run after run on its own only to later abandon it, sometimes abruptly. It is almost as if the GFS is a trolling model at times lol.

After having had the two weakest runs (yesterday's 12Z and 18Z) since the string of GFS ECar Hs started with the 6Z 10/21 run, the last two runs (0Z/6Z) have gone the opposite way to the strongest through hour 198 (12Z on 11/1)! I still think the GFS' idea of a H in the ECar is wrong and that any TCG, if there is any, would likely wait til the C or WCar. This is quite the interesting situation from a forecasting perspective with such major differences persisting among the main models! I still think the odds of one more significant land impacting TC somewhere in the W basin this season are pretty high based on recent decades of La Niña season history, especially since 2005.

And now the 0Z GFS at hour 198 has the strongest H it has had at that forecast timeframe with 970 mb S of Hispaniola.

I still think the GFS is out to lunch with its climo unfavored E Caribbean geneses. The two recent runs are the weakest through late next week in the E Car, which imho is hinting to us that that is the case and that it will quite possibly stop showing E Car geneses within a few runs. OTOH, the 18Z GEFS is about as active with geneses in early November in the W Car as has been the case with any recent run. This is similar to the increased activity there on the two most recent EPS runs though the GEFS is quite a bit more active. Imho, it is the C or W Caribbean where we should be wary about a possible TCG next week rather than the E Car that the GFS has been insisting on.

The 12Z Euro as well as the 12Z EPS, similarly to the 0Z, are hinting at the possibility of TCG in the C or W Caribbean ~10/31-11/2 with ~25% of EPS members somewhat active fwiw. The Euro has light shear in the SW Caribbean then along with an upper high forming to the N in addition to a strengthening surface high to the NE increasing low level convergence. These all are suggestive of more favorable conditions for TCG in the W Caribbean in ~8-10 days. Climo: Oct 21-31: Nov 1-10:

The 12Z GFS is through hour 252 (with just a 1002 mb low) the weakest it has been in the Caribbean with this system since way back to the 0Z 10/21 run. It had had in nearly all of its runs since then (nine runs) hurricanes at that forecast time (as strong as 938 mb!). Even though I've been harping on the idea of a good chance for one more TC this season with significant land impacts based on the last nine La Niña seasons and 2/3 of La Niña seasons since 1964 having had one form either in late Oct or Nov, this GFS E Caribbean TCG has continued to look ghosty to me based on a general lack of support by other models in the E Caribbean, the GFS seeming to involve something coming off of SA in this genesis (which the GFS suite has been wrong on a good number of times this season), and the rarity of TCG in the E Caribbean vs C or W Caribbean. I'm still on the alert for one more potentially impactful system this season but don't think this E Caribbean GFS TC is the one as it appears bogus to me. OTOH, a decent % of 0Z EPS members is hinting at TCG in the much more favored (per climo) W Caribbean around 10/31 to very early Nov. That's a much more believable possibility to me than this GFS TC. Edit: Despite the weaker start, the 12Z GFS run later goes ape shoot once again with this with a 952 mb H in the NE Caribbean on Nov 5th with it reaching H strength on 11/4. I'm not believing it. The prior run had a H by 11/1, yesterday's 18Z had it by 11/2, and yesterday's 12Z had it by 10/31.

Folks, Keep in mind that this map is showing probabilities. The SE US is in the 33-50% chance range for above normal (based on 30 year average) ("A") temperatures. That means that none of the SE actually has a likelihood of A. Rather, the SE has a higher chance for A than for either N or B. For example, let's say you're on the 40% chance for A line (as is the case for RDU, CLT, CAE, AGS, and MCN). That means your area has a 40% chance for A, 33% chance for N, and 27% chance for B. I got that info from here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal_info.php In my 1st post ITT (two months ago), I listed eight 3rd year cold ENSO analog winters using Eric Webb's tables. Here's how those turned out at ATL: - 1874-5: N (based on AGS, MGM, & SAV being N since ATL N/A) - 1894-5: B - 1910-1: N - 1917-8: B - 1956-7: A - 1975-6: N - 1985-6: N - 2000-1: B Tally for ATL for eight analogs: 3 B, 4 N, and 1 A. So, fwiw based on the 3rd year cold ENSO analogs, the SE US has a very good shot at not having a mild winter. Instead, the higher likelihood is for just one of the three months to be mild. For these eight winters at ATL, here are the # of mild months: - two winters had two - four winters had one - two winters had none Here are the # of cold months: - one winter had two - five winters had one - two winters had none Based on all of this, the best bet is probably for one mild month, one near normal month, and one cold month. The last three of these eight winters were that way. That one cold month would have a good chance to be pretty memorable as were Feb of 1895, Dec of 1910, Dec of 1917, Jan of 1918, and Dec of 2000.

It actually has been on most models for at least several days of runs. Most runs have this low or its remnant moisture either going into the NE US or SE Canada mid next week or else recurving sharply and staying offshore those areas. Edit: The 18Z GFS takes the surface low across Cape Cod and then into Maine.

The last two GFS runs have similar shenanigans. They're giving me ghost vibes because the GFS loves its ghosts, especially late in its runs. The latest example is what apparently won't occur next week. Many GFS/GEFS runs had had a Caribbean TS+ next week with no other model support and now that idea has been dropped. So, it appears that the next real Caribbean TC would be in November, if any at all. As mentioned earlier, November has had more than its share of impactful activity during recent La Niña seasons. So, I'm not counting out that possibility as of now.

Upper 30s (38-39) for all three of 10/19-21 at KSAV with new record low and coldest so early in the season since 2001 on 10/19. KSVN similar except 40 on 10/19. The three sub 40 lows this month at KSAV compares to an average of only 1/2 a day that cold in the full month of October since records started in 1874. The record number of sub 40 lows in October is five with more than three occurring only four times, three times during the cold 1960s and the other time in 2001. Having three sub 40 lows by October 21st is a new record that beat the old record of two sub 40 lows by October 21st set only once (in 1954). Also, October 21st beats the old record earliest for the third sub 40 low by six days (old record of October 27th for the 3rd sub 40 low set both in 1962 and 1965). So, it wasn't just the intensity of this early cold event that was noteworthy for the deep SE US. It was also the duration.

It was 38 at KSAV, the coldest this early in the season since 2001 as well as a new record low for the date. It was 40 at KSVN.