GaWx

The 180-100W OHC anomaly has exceeded +1.20 throughout June so far with the latest near +1.35. So, most likely June will resume the month to month warming. It looks to be the third warmest June OHC back to 1979 behind only 1997's +2.25 and 2015's +1.51:

Well, the last two days' averages have shown warming, especially today: -CDAS warmed 0.040 to 0.717 -Coral Reef Watch warmed 0.035 to 0.934 -OISST warmed 0.048 to 0.970 Average warming today was .041

As I said above, the newest BoM run warms July to +1.8, which is a whopping 0.9 warming vs its June initialization of +0.9. I looked at the largest ERSST based monthly warmings for developing El Nino years to give me an idea of how believable a 0.9 warming in just one month is: 1. +0.86 May to June 1968 2. +0.75 Jan to Feb 1976 3. +0.71 Aug to Sep 1982 4. +0.63 June to July 1963 5. +0.56 Oct to Nov 2009 So, a 0.9 warming would about equal the largest monthly warming on record (back to 1950) for an oncoming El Niño, which was from May to June in 1968. Keep in mind that it's still possible that June will end up at +1.0 if there's enough rewarming before the end of this month. If so, it would be a 0.8 warming, which would be near the Jan to Feb of 1976 warming. So, what I get from this is that July warming to +1.8 wouldn't mean an unprecedentedly steep monthly warming meaning it is possible. However, it being about the steepest along with the prior BoM runs being too warm for June tells me to be skeptical that July will get to +1.8. The next 6 weeks will be fascinating to follow. Monthly ERSST 1950+: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

Actually, you didn't beat him as @snowman19posted about this early yesterday: And then I chimed in about it yesterday: I've also pointed out that the prior BoM forecasts for June, +1.3 and then +1.2, look to be significantly too warm. This new BoM run actually initialized June at only +0.9 as I said in the above linked post. Despite that, it has July at +1.8, which is even warmer than the prior run's +1.7. A +1.8 in July would mean an amazingly steep warming from June. So, that remains to be seen, especially in light of its too warm June.

It appears that it will be upgraded at 5PM EDT per this: AL, 03, 2023061918, , BEST, 0, 112N, 414W, 35, 1008, TS This would tie it with Bret of 2017 as the earliest TS in the MDR east of the Caribbean on record back to 1851.

1. Thanks to you I've learned more about CDAS than Ive ever known. 2. I don't think he can use ERSST for daily updates because I don't think that updates daily. But correct me if I'm wrong about that. 3. I get OISST dailies from another source and thus am glad Levi provides the CDAS because I like to look at it, especially for its daily changes, to compare them to OISST and Coral Reef Watch daily changes. Also, CDAS has been good recently to give me a good feel for the minimum as to where SSTs are since it tends to run the coolest. Coral Reef dailies have recently been the warmest.

It would be nice if there were a "wow" reaction icon. Indeed, this newest run has Sep/Oct/Nov at an absolutely insane +2.9/+3.0/+3.2 vs the already pretty insane +2.6/+2.7/+2.9 on the prior run, meaning a warming of 0.3! The prior run to that was "only" at +2.4/+2.5/+2.7. So, it has warmed 0.5 for SON over the last two runs! What's even more interesting is that this new run initialized June at only +0.9 vs the prior run's June prediction of +1.2. But even with that 0.3 cooling for June, it then gets July way up to +1.8 vs +1.7 on the prior run! Meanwhile, the SOI has started its rise from yesterday's -26 June MTD low with today at -19. The NOAA weekly for last week was just released at +0.9, the same as the prior week. Based on the new BoM it likely won't rise much, if any, next week.

Per the following June 3rd post of mine, the CFSv2 then was suggesting a June SOI of ~-9 and first two weeks of July SOI of ~-9.5 fwiw:

Today's SOI of -26 is barely the most -SOI for the MTD and brings June MTD down to nearly -5. However, today should be at or near the low point with a large rise expected during the upcoming week. Around 7-8 days from now, it appears that the SOI will probably head up to near +15. Thus June as a whole will end up much higher than the -15 of May. That's not too surprising considering how far down May was. Then we'll see where July might head. July and August will be important.

Today's 3.4 SSTa update has little net change after yesterday's modest cooling: CDAS cooled 0.010 to 0.685 Coral Reef Watch cooled 0.013 to 0.876 OISSTv2.1 warmed 0.007 to 0.883

Up to 90%/90% in 2PM EDT TWO: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92): Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form over the next day or so. This system is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic with further development through the middle part of the week. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Forecaster Blake

With that slight increase today, 2023 improved significantly since yesterday vs the average of 2007-2022. It went from +160k yesterday to +320k today. It moved from 6th highest to 2nd highest of the last 17 years.

Well, there was fast warming for the last week of May and first week of June. And that lead to NOAA declaring El Niño. But there's not yet been a resumption of significant warming. Is that because we're still in a corrective phase of sorts after that two week rapid warming? June MTD is near +0.9 per OISSTv1.2. There likely will need to be more warming over the next two weeks for June to reach +1.0. Latest BoM predicted +1.2, Euro +1.1, and CFSv2 +0.9. Let's see how June ends up.

Maybe it is a temporary blip, but today all three cooled: CDAS cooled 0.027 to 0.695 Coral Reef Watch barely cooled 0.002 to .0889 OISSTv2.1 cooled .031 to .876 So, today cooled an average of .020 after the last two days of an average warming of .024/day. For the June monthly to end up as warm as +1.0 instead of +0.9, there's likely going to need to be additional warming over the next two weeks. For comparison, the latest BoM had June at +1.2.

I made another error. I totally missed Ana of 1979. And so did this map of 1851-2015 June 11th-20th formations, which has no TCs forming east of the Caribbean. It first became a TD on June 19th: So, assuming I now have this right, the earliest TS designations in the tropical Atlantic east of the Caribbean are Bret of 2017 (June 19th), Ana of 1979 (June 22nd), and 1933 (June 24th or 25th). As mentioned, the current disturbance may come close to the earliest of June 19th.

Today is the 2nd day of warming following the corrective cooling of the three I look at: CDAS warmed 0.025 to 0.722 Coral Reef Watch (barely) warmed 0.001 to 0.891 OISSTv2.1 warmed 0.047 to 0.907 So, today's average warming was 0.024 vs 0.024 also yesterday.

The 2PM TWO has it now up to 60% within 7 days. The earliest on record back to 1851 of a TS in the tropical Atlantic east of the Caribbean is June 19th, set by Bret in 2017. This could come close. Next earliest is June 24th-25th (1933). The third earliest is June 30th (Elsa of 2021). *Edit for correction: Elsa was 3rd earliest but it became a TS at 5AM AST on July 1st, not on June 30th. Elsa track is in here:

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form during the early to middle portions of next week while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. Forecaster Bucci

Due to the cooling that just ended, I'm back to thinking it is extremely unlikely the BoM's +1.2 for June will be reached.

Just 11 days ago, the EPS and GEFS both had an MJO forecast going through the entire MC phases 4 and 5 at moderate strength through about June 20th. Instead, the actual MJO only barely made it into moderate phase 4 and it already is within the circle. The June 5th forecasts had had it going into moderate phase 5 around today with a prog of about a 4-5 day period within moderate phase 5. I didn't at all expect this forecast failure as one can see below in my June 5th post:

That puts 2023 +160k vs the average of 2007-2022 and 6th highest of the last 17 years as of June 15th.

The cooling has ended with warming resumed in all three datasets: CDAS: warmed 0.013 to 0.697 Coral Reef Watch: warmed 0.018 to 0.890 OISSTv2.1: warmed 0.042 to 0.860 *Edited for typos

The 0Z Euro is the 3rd in a row with a closed tropical low in the MDR east of the LAs. This run has it the furthest south and is slightly stronger than the 12Z. It then goes WNW into the Caribbean to SW of PR. That would be a rarity for so early in the season. This Euro has a TD that looks close to making minimal TS strength as Bret (assuming 0Z GFS is wrong about its earlier W Caribbean system) that is similar to Bret of 2017. If that occurs, Bret of 2023 would be second only to Bret of 2017 as the earliest TS on record to go into the Caribbean from the east. From 8AM TWO: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa later today and early Friday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic during the early to middle part of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Bucci

Do you or does anyone else have any idea of how accurate the Euro ensemble has been and whether there's an identified bias looking ahead from summer to winter at H2 velocity potential?

We're really getting rocked here now, harder than the late morning activity. Very heavy rains, frequent lightning, and gusty winds are all occurring. This reminds me why I hate satellite dish vs cable!