GaWx

I’m sure that it is still too early to cancel the rest of the season due to uncertainty, but I’m not (and nobody else can possibly be) sure about how busy/quiet the rest of the season will be.

Just joking around because you said you’re close to giving up. It really is way, way too early to “season cancel” imho.

I don’t think it was a good idea to pin the contest thread and no others. This one is way busier and the contest won’t end for several months. Or at least pin this one and the other current tropical threads as well. Other opinions?

It’s strange. Out of the 10 listed day 8 analogs, 8 of the 10 are from El Niño late August or Septembers: 3 from 2009, 2 from 2006, 1 from 1987, 1 from 1972, and 1 from 1953. The only 2 not Nino are from 2003 and 1981, both neutral. So, no dates from La Nina are listed! Is this significant or is it just a not unusual short period that goes against the grain and will go back to La Niña soon?

Nino 3.4 appears to be steadily cooling now: OISST: CDAS: Buoys: E 3.4 is the coolest I’ve seen it and has been cooling rather rapidly the last few days even though it’s still warm in Nino 4: SOIs have gone solidly positive 11 days and look to continue.

Relative ONI, which adjusts ONI based on average global tropical SST anomalies. Right now those are so warm that RONI is over 0.5C colder than ONI. The equivalent RONI is down to ~-0.7, which is weak Niña.

But we’re already weak Niña per RONI.

My ACE forecast that day at another BB’s season contest (it’s still there) was 176. That was based on CSU’s April ACE forecast ending up 34+ too high when they were very aggressive with ACE per the analysis I had done that I just linked too. They predicted 210 in April. 210-34=176.

Here is fwiw a copy of some excerpts from a post I made on 4/7/24 regarding the extremely bullish April CSU forecast: “I see a pretty clear pattern when they’ve gone very active in April: 2. NS days: They’re predicting 115. Prior to this the highest they predicted in April was 85-95 (four times). All four of those progs ended up too high. The highest actual of those four was only 58 and they averaged a whopping 40.5 too high! 3. # H: They’re predicting 11. The prior highest predicted in April was 9 (six times). All of those 6 progs ended up too high by an average of 3. 7. ACE: They’re predicting 210. The prior highest predicted in April were 160-183 (five times). Of these five, all progs ended up too high with even the closest still being 34 too high! The five averaged a whopping 85.8 too high! Conclusion: If I were a betting man, I’d short CSU’s April ‘24’s forecast overall, especially NS Days, # H, and ACE.”

Do you still collaborate with Keith Allen? I still remember you regularly talking about him and many folks here were thus always eagerly anticipating your posts passing along his thoughts.

The Tropical Tidbits CFS graphics are much more realistic imho: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=eus&pkg=T2maMean_month&runtime=2024082700&fh=6

Even if ONI doesn’t get down into weak Niña, RONI almost certainly will be hanging around that area as it already is likely in the -0.6 to -0.7 area and the SOI has turned to solid + recently. RONI could still get down to moderate Niña. MEI also should be Niña if we can keep the SOI +. GEFS is forecasting strong trade winds/solid MJO MC as I assume you know. All of this should support nice cooling in 3.4.

Aleutian ridge is as you know the opposite of what correlates best to a cold winter in SE US, an Aleutian low. Last year many of us E US folks in the El Niño thread were so excited about all of the forecasts for a mean of a solid Aleutian low. A significantly warmer and drier winter is most likely on the way down here vs last winter’s NN to slightly AN. But winter is still my favorite season! And regardless, there are almost always a few cold snaps.

8PM TWO from NHC: Central Tropical Atlantic: An area of low pressure could form in the central portion of the Tropical Atlantic in a few days. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development of this system by this weekend into early next week as it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

15/9/4

Surprisingly to me, today’s Euro Weeklies had no uptick in the mean ACE progs. These are based on today’s 0Z extended EPS. Had they been based on today’s 12Z instead, I’m confident there would have been an uptick. They stayed the same for weeks 1-3 and had a slight down tick for week 4. Regardless, the maps showing the areas with enhanced chances of TC strike suggest for weeks 3-4 (9/9-22) the highest chance in and near the SE US for any run since I started following these daily. Also, week 3 has the highest chance of any run for the corridor SE to PR.

I’m currently thinking 2/3 chance of a TCG by next week. Due largely to this AEW, I expect the first uptick (as long as I’ve been tracking this daily) on the Euro Weeklies, especially for the week of 9/2-8. Probably some uptick on 9/9-15 as well just due to the end of this.

12Z EPS: notable uptick in members active with this E Atlantic AEW vs earlier runs.

12Z Euro: from main AEW being tracked has a TS just SW of PR moving WNW at 240 hrs

But it would still almost certainly end up a weak to borderline moderate Niña for all practical purposes including on RONI.

Regarding the AEW/activity in the far E ATL on the 12Z runs: 1. ICON at 180 has a TS at 19N/59W moving WNW aimed N of the Leewards. It has had a sfc low from this since the 12Z 8/23 run. 2. GFS has it but doesn’t develop it til it gets to the Gulf on 9/9. It then ends the run as a H just offshore from Apalachicola, FL, about to landfall near there. 3. GEFS: active like 6Z with the lead wave along with some members developing the followup MDR wave. 4. CMC: has a weak reflection of this same AEW at the surface (stronger than 0Z run) that moves WNW to S Bahamas at 240. 5. UKMET: no TCG 6. Euro: not out yet

1. Agreed it will very likely be closer to avg on Sept 1. However, the 3 main 0Z ensembles as well as 6Z GEFS agree that the highest concentration of members with a TCG is in the MDR 45-60W between 8/31 and 9/3. Overall concentration looks a bit higher vs most earlier runs. This is pretty close to when/where 23 AI-Euro runs in a row had TCG as well as TCGs on recent ICON runs. Chances seem pretty good for the next TCG during the first few days of Sept. even though the AI-Euro ironically abandoned its near Leeward Island TCG two days ago. So, we’ll see. If there is a TCG then when considering the near record warmth in many parts of the W basin, that would have the potential to be a big ACE producer. Unfortunately, it could threaten the CONUS. I’ve been enjoying the lowered stress resulting from this recent quiet. The party may be over. We’ll see. 2. I believe that this season will end up backloaded as well as concentrated in the W part of the basin due to less favorable conditions in the E basin due to a variety of reasons, some unknown.