GaWx

The Kingston webcams show that rain and wind have increased substantially the last hour for quite the stormy afternoon. Keep in mind that Kingston is 75 miles NE of the center, nowhere near the core: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=h0E93nmFO1A

Yes, it appears that way. Look for the worst from this storm to move in shortly and last for several hours.

Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 20A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 200 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ABOUT TO SPREAD INTO JAMAICA AS THE EYE OF BERYL APPROACHES... ...EYE OF BERYL EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 76.9W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...225 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

I consider my area to have been fortunate rainfall-wise since the ~2.5” from the tropical low/Invest 92L of 6/21-3. There were pop ups around the area later in June but hardly any rainfall here from those. But then early July has been wet thanks to a stationary front/trough. I’ve received ~2” with ~1” of that just since noon today (just ended).

12Z CMC: very slightly further N than prior run but still 100 miles S of MX/TX border So for 12Z runs CMC, GFS, and UKMET landfalls pretty close in NE MX. ICON still further N but not as far N as prior runs with it ~75 miles S of Galveston. Euro will be out next hour.

12z UKMET: landfall shifted ~50 miles N of its 0z run to ~midway between Tampico and TX border HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 75.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 03.07.2024 0 17.0N 75.0W 960 101 0000UTC 04.07.2024 12 17.9N 78.8W 985 65 1200UTC 04.07.2024 24 18.2N 82.6W 996 46 0000UTC 05.07.2024 36 18.7N 85.6W 996 46 1200UTC 05.07.2024 48 19.4N 88.1W 998 38 0000UTC 06.07.2024 60 20.0N 91.2W 999 47 1200UTC 06.07.2024 72 21.1N 93.3W 1000 44 0000UTC 07.07.2024 84 22.2N 95.1W 998 39 1200UTC 07.07.2024 96 23.3N 96.6W 992 44 0000UTC 08.07.2024 108 24.1N 97.9W 993 46 1200UTC 08.07.2024 120 24.4N 99.3W 998 29 0000UTC 09.07.2024 132 CEASED TRACKING

12Z GFS: landfall shifts S to ~100 miles S of TX/MX border vs close to or N of border on prior runs

12Z ICON: Significant shift SW in W Gulf with landfall 75 miles SW of Galveston instead of upper TX or near LA border like on prior runs.

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Westerly shear is having an effect on Beryl this morning, as the eye has all but disappeared in satellite imagery and the cloud pattern has become ragged and elongated from southwest to northeast. Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has risen to near 954 mb. However, the Air Force plane measured flight-level winds of 139 kt at 700 mb, while the NOAA plane measured 138-kt winds at 750 mb. These winds support surface winds of 120-125 kt, and based on this the initial intensity is held at 125 kt. The initial motion is now 285/16. A strong mid-level ridge centered over the southeastern US is expected to continue steering Beryl generally west-northwestward at a decreasing speed for the next couple of days or so. The motion should bring the center near or just south of Jamaica during the next 6-12 h and south of the Cayman Islands tonight. After that, the system should reach the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in 36-48 h and emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by 60 h. Once over the Gulf, there remains a sizable amount of spread in the track guidance, with the GFS and HWRF showing a more northerly motion toward the Texas coast while the ECMWF and UKMET show a more westerly motion toward the coast of Mexico. This part of the track forecast lies near the consensus models in the middle of the guidance envelope, and overall there are no significant changes to the forecast from the previous advisory. While there is some disagreement in how much shear Beryl will encounter before reaching Yucatan, the intensity guidance expects enough shear that it agrees on steady weakening. The official forecast follows this and is at the high end of the guidance envelope. Beryl should weaken more while over Yucatan, then slowly re-intensify over the Gulf of Mexico in a somewhat more favorable environment. The intensity forecast again calls for the cyclone to regain hurricane strength before it reaches the western Gulf coast, followed by weakening after landfall. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 17.1N 76.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 17.8N 78.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 18.5N 82.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 19.0N 85.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 19.7N 88.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 60H 06/0000Z 20.5N 90.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 06/1200Z 21.5N 92.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 23.5N 96.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 25.5N 98.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven

Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS JAMAICA WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... ...EYE OF BERYL EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 76.1W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 76.1 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion should continue through today, followed by a turn more toward the west tonight or Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will pass near or over Jamaica during the next several hours. After that, the center is expected to pass near or over the Cayman Islands tonight or early Thursday and move over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Thursday night or early Friday.

June QBO +1.95 (30 mb)

0Z Euro: back S similar to 12Z to just N of Tampico; similar to 0Z UKMET

0Z UKMET is similar to 12Z run. Final landfall little N of Tampico/slightly N of 12Z landfall: use for track, not the very underdone strength HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 71.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 03.07.2024 0 16.2N 71.6W 969 91 1200UTC 03.07.2024 12 16.6N 75.4W 980 73 0000UTC 04.07.2024 24 17.9N 78.6W 989 57 1200UTC 04.07.2024 36 18.2N 82.7W 995 47 0000UTC 05.07.2024 48 18.6N 86.0W 996 45 1200UTC 05.07.2024 60 19.3N 88.6W 1000 32 0000UTC 06.07.2024 72 20.0N 91.9W 1000 39 1200UTC 06.07.2024 84 20.8N 93.8W 1001 37 0000UTC 07.07.2024 96 21.7N 95.4W 1000 38 1200UTC 07.07.2024 108 22.8N 96.8W 996 41 0000UTC 08.07.2024 120 23.6N 98.3W 997 39 1200UTC 08.07.2024 132 23.4N 100.7W 1006 26 0000UTC 09.07.2024 144 CEASED TRACKING

The cruise with close relatives of mine on it that amazingly had Jamaica as a stop tomorrow (no not a hurricane chasing ship lol) had already canceled that stop two days ago since that was a no brainer. But they did end up going to Grand Cayman today. They left there a couple of hours ago and are headed NW to the GOM. Looking at the map of ships, I’m surprised to see another cruise ship only 100 miles NW of Jamaica this close in time to the storm. But it is hauling butt to the NW at 25 mph. See it below (dark blue arrow) along with the circular area with no ships where Beryl is:

My guess based on the past is a drop of one category from where it is when it first encounters the island. But it could subsequently gain that category back soon after passing it by.

The high Jamaican mtns will almost certainly disrupt and weaken Beryl at least while over it or passing it. How much and for how long is the big question. It has mtns over 7K feet high in the E portion! Almost before Gilbert left the island, it started to rapidly strengthen. Then that storm became a monster.

The chance for Beryl to end up in the group of worst storms to affect Jamaica since 1950 is unfortunately increasing. Those worst storms are Dean (2007), Ivan (2004), Gilbert (1988), and Charlie (1951). Dean and Ivan missed a little to the S while Gilbert and Charlie went right over it lengthwise. All 4 were MHs at/near Jamaica. Gilbert appears to have been the worst though I’m not sure as they were all bad.

Unfortunately for Jamaica, when looking at analogous tracks with a solid speed of movement from the E or ESE at/near Jamaica, I’m kind of discouraged. These storms, 1951’s Charlie, 1974’s Carmen, 1988’s Gilbert, 2001’s Iris, 2004’s Charley and Ivan, 2005’s Dennis and Emily, and Dean of 2007 either only weakened slightly, were steady, or strengthened on the way to Jamaica. So, these analogs have been suggesting that Beryl should remain a MH til impact with or a slight miss of Jamaica. Evidently, it is probably going to be too far S of Hispaniola for its mtns to disrupt it significantly.

I’m doing what RONI does, comparing Nino 3.4 anomaly to the concurrent avg worldwide tropical ocean anomaly (20N to 20S).

BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 800 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024 ...BERYL EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 71.7W ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal to Cabo Catoche. The government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from south of Chetumal to Belize City.

18Z Euro vs 12Z slightly N at Jamaica (right over it) followed by 70 miles further N at Yucatan and 150 miles further NE in BoC, where run ends at 90. Implies much further N landfall in W GOM had it gone further.

18Z ICON sticking to its much further N guns.

Indeed. Even if you use 1961-90 normals for 72-3, it was still much colder in the NE US in 72-3. Also, 72-3 was much wetter than 23-4 in the SE. Furthermore, in addition to the historic Feb snowstorm, there was a historic Jan icestorm in some areas including Atlanta area in 73. Even way down here there was a very rare over 3” of snow! In sharp contrast, Atlanta and many areas of the SE had no wintry precip in 23-4. There hasn’t even been a flake here since Jan of 2018 during the longest wintry precip drought on record here.

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024 The cloud pattern of Beryl has become a little less organized since the last reconnaissance aircraft left the storm near 17Z. While the eyewall cloud tops have cooled, the eye has become ragged and less distinct inside the central dense overcast, and the overall cloud pattern is becoming elongated due to shear. Objective intensity estimates suggest that the hurricane has weakened a little in the past few hours, but the advisory intensity will be held at 135 kt until the arrival of the next aircraft missions near 00Z. The initial motion is a quick 290/19 kt. A strong subtropical ridge centered over the southern United States will continue to steer Beryl west-northwestward to westward across the central and northwestern Caribbean for the next few days, and this motion should bring the center near Jamaica in about 24 h, near the Cayman Islands in about 36 h, and near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico around 60-72 h. After that, there remains a significant spread in the track guidance when Beryl emerges into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, due mainly to model differences in the strength and location of a break in the subtropical ridge over the southern United States. The GFS shows a more northerly motion during this time, while the ECMWF and UKMET forecast a more westerly motion. This part of forecast track lies between these extremes near the consensus models and has a higher than normal amount of uncertainty. The intensity forecast also continues to be uncertain. The models are in good agreement that Beryl should steadily weaken during the next 60 h due to shear and dry air entrainment, but the models show a slower rate of weakening than previously. Based on this, the new intensity forecast calls for Beryl to still be a major hurricane when it passes near Jamaica, at or near major hurricane strength when it passes the Cayman Islands, and still be a hurricane when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula. This part of the forecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. There remains considerable spread in the intensity guidance when Beryl emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, although there is somewhat better agreement that the cyclone will intensify some while crossing the Gulf. The new forecast follows this trend and lies near the middle of the spread-out intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 15.9N 70.8W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 16.7N 73.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 17.7N 77.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 18.5N 80.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 19.1N 83.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 19.7N 87.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 20.7N 89.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 96H 06/1800Z 22.5N 94.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 07/1800Z 24.5N 97.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

5PM NHC: Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024 ...EYE OF BERYL MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 70.8W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast during the next day or two. However, Beryl is forecast to be at or near major hurricane intensity while it passes near Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman Islands on Wednesday night. Additional weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).