GaWx

It doesn’t matter as he’s using maps with bogus CFS forecasted Pacific SSTa data to make it seem like 13/14 is a good analog. I‘m not saying he knows it is bogus though. I assume he doesn’t.

True. But if he were at least to use accurate maps showing a +PDO, it wouldn’t be so bad. But doing this using inaccurate maps is ridiculous. I assume he doesn’t realize these WB SSTa maps are bogus.

Privately he may very well look at others but he’d still likely dismiss them in his mind due to his bias. But regardless, publicly because he works for WB, because the WB maps show what he wants (+PDO), and because he keeps thinking after a bunch of busts that perhaps he won’t bust this time, especially since he almost always badly wants to predict a cold E US winter.

New from JB: “Now the CFSV2 is trying to forecast a warm PDO for the winter” “this would resemble a blend of the SST of 10-11,13-14,14-15” Once again, he’s relying on what I feel are bogus WB CFS SSTa maps like the one above. Yes, that looks like a +PDO. But it doesn’t matter if it is bogus like I think it is. Why does it have the warmest Pac waters, other than near Japan, just off N.A. and a 1,000 by 4,000 mile area of cold waters in the W to CPAC (to just N of Hawaii)?? To compare, here’s the -PDO shown on the latest TT CFS SSTa map for NDJ using 1984-2009 climo (DJF not out yet on TT): is orange where huge blue WB area is (including N of Hawaii) and only yellow/white (cooler) just off N.A. So, TT -PDO for NDJ vs WB +PDO for DJF for the same model! You can’t make this stuff up! By the way here’s TT CANSIPS for DJF: strong -PDO @snowman19@donsutherland1@Brian5671

For some slight good news at least for now: the Atlantic MDR is for the first time in 11 months no longer the warmest on record as 2010 has barely overtaken it.

1. I don’t like seeing this, especially because I’m not too far from the coast of GA. 2. The increase in tidal flooding isn’t just from SLR/CC. Subsidence has also been a major and possibly larger factor in some of these same areas: Regions with the highest land subsidence in the United States are mainly located along the East and Gulf Coast Analyzing land subsidence rates in large coastal cities, Bekaert and his colleagues found Houston has the fastest peak subsidence rates — about 17 millimeters (0.67 inches) per year from 2014 to 2020 — in the United States. Other research showed parts of Houston lost over 3 meters in elevation in certain areas since 1917. Land subsidence in the Houston-Galveston area is largely caused by groundwater withdrawals. Parts of New Orleans are also experiencing high rates of sinking, due to both human-induced and natural processes. Research showed that rates are highly variable across the city, ranging from 150 to 500 millimeters (6 to 20 inches) over the past 20 years. While Houston and New Orleans are notable subsiding locations, other places in the Gulf also experience high rates. In a large area north of Tampa Bay, subsidence rates have been clocked at up to 6 millimeters (0.24 inches) per year, about twice as much as global sea level rise, from 2015 to 2020 due to groundwater pumping. https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/05/30/land-sinking-us-subsidence-sea-level/

Thank you for this link! This is a summary of what I learned from reading it, with emphasis on tables 3 (9 eruptions since 1880s) and 4 (subset of the 9 that covers only the 4 since 1963) -Covers the two DJFs that follow 9 volcanic eruptions (3 each of VEI 4, 5, 6) -For the eruptions that occurred Mar-Aug (7 of 9) the immediate next 2 DJFs were analyzed -But for the two that occurred in Oct, a one year lag was assumed and thus the two later DJFs were studied. -Winters analyzed: 1883-4/1884-5, 1886-7/1887-8, 1888-9/1889-90, 1903-4/1904-5, 1932-3/1933-4, 1963-4/1964-5, 1975-6/1976-7, 1982-3/1983-4, 1991-2/1992-3 -For these 18 winters averaged, table 3 shows a significant +AO and +NAO based on BN SLP in the Arctic (-2 mb) and AN SLP in the Azores (+3 mb). -For just the average of the 8 winters since 1963-4, table 4 shows an even stronger +AO/+NAO with even more BN Arctic SLP (-3 mb) and even more AN Azores SLP (+5 mb). -But focusing on just the 8 winters since 1963 (table 4) and looking at the respective NOAA NAO/AO monthlies shows a disconnect with this study’s table 4/very mixed picture 1) NAO: 1963-4 and 1976-7 had two of the strongest -NAO since 1950! Also, 1964-5 had a moderate -NAO and 1975-6 had a neutral NAO. So, 50% of the 8 winters had a negative to neutral NAO. The average NAO for the 8 was near 0/neutral! **Edit: Coincidentally?, 1963-4/1964-5 and 1975-6/1976-7 were near solar mins (avg sunspots <27) while 1982-3 and 1991-2/1992-3 had >110 with 1983-4 ~75. 2024-5 almost definitely/2025-6 likely will have active sunspots fwiw. 2) AO: 1964-5 and 1976-7 were -AO while 1963-4, 1982-3, and 1983-4 were neutral AO. So, 5/8 of the 8 winters had a negative to neutral AO. The average AO for the 8 winters was near 0/neutral! -Their map for the 18 winter average shows NN temperatures in the E US despite their +AO/+NAO average. (They’re AN in N Eurasia). -My look at the 18 E US winter temperatures one by one using NYC as the representative city (normals based on nearby 30 year averages): 1883-4: slightly BN (cold Jan) 1884-5: BN (very cold Feb) (cold SE)(Nino) 1886-7: slightly BN (cold Dec)(Niña) 1887-8: BN (very cold Jan)(big Mar blizzard) 1888-9: slightly AN (mild Jan)(super Nino) 1889-90: MAN (D,J,F mild)(MAN SE)(Niña) 1903-4: MBN (all 3 cold)(BN SE)(Niña) 1904-5: BN (cold D,F)(MBN in SE)(Nino) 1932-3: AN (mild D,J) 1933-4: BN (record cold F)(Niña) 1963-4: NN (cold D, mild J)(MBN in SE)(Nino) 1964-5: NN (Niña) 1975-6: NN (cold Jan, mild Feb)(Niña) 1976-7: MBN (MBN DJ)(record cold SE)(Nino) 1982-3: AN (mild Dec)(super Nino) 1983-4: NN (mild Feb)(Niña) 1991-2: AN (Nino) 1992-3: NN (mild J, cold F)(Storm of Cent. Mar) ————— AVG of all 18: slightly BN/wide variation AVG of 9 1st winters: slightly AN/wide variation AVG of 9 2nd winters: slightly BN/wide variation (most of BN to MBN winters 2nd yr) ENSO: 7 Nino, 7 Niña (even split but study favors Nino maybe due to bigger weights of 2 super Nino) Their maps show stronger than normal SPV/TPV for the 18 winter average. Stratosphere is opposite, warmer than normal, in the tropics.

The overall lower level of posting is likely because the prospects for warmth next winter in the E US appear higher to many than it looked a year ago for 2023-4. I’m still posting and will continue to because I enjoy forecast discussions regardless of what the prospects are for whatever. But I’m much less excited than last year for a shot at a non-warm winter (though winter is still my favorite season). Snowman may post more later for all we know. However, there’s less incentive this year because he’d no longer be the near lone dissenting voice as folks like me would largely agree with him now. Last year he had raindance and sometimes Chuck and George but hardly anyone else as I recall. In other words, it is closer to an echo chamber so far this year. So, who would he preach good chance of a warm winter to if many of us are already believers? (That said, nothing in the wacky world of wx is ever close to being set in stone.) In case you haven’t seen it yet you can go to the NYC region’s banter thread to see him, myself, donsutherland, bluewave, and others if you want to see some recent more active longterm forecast discussions. These discussions aren’t particularly aimed at the NYC region as they’re about the E US in general.

Fwiw for next winter (I know forecast value is low), the new CANSIPS pretty much maintains the -PDO/WPAC marine heatwave/basin wide to central based La Niña/-PNA/+EPO of the prior run though all but -PDO/WPAC marine heatwave with less intensity. Also, it lost the +AO/+NAO to go neutral to slightly -AO/-NAO. Temperatures in the E US went (vs cooler base of 1981-2010) from a somewhat solid AN on the prior run to very slightly AN to NN on the new one. This is equivalent to NN vs 1991-2020 base. It cooled ~2 F. Again, fwiw and I’ll believe it will be that “cool” when I see it (due to model cold bias and very low accuracy that far out): New 2 meter DJF E US: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=eus&pkg=T2maMean_month&runtime=2024050100&fh=9 Old: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=eus&pkg=T2maMean_month&runtime=2024040100&fh=10

Fwiw for next winter (I know forecast value is low), the new CANSIPS pretty much maintains the -PDO/WPAC marine heatwave/basin wide to central based La Niña/-PNA/+EPO of the prior run though all but -PDO/WPAC marine heatwave with less intensity. Also, it lost the +AO/+NAO to go neutral to slightly -AO/-NAO. Temperatures in the E US went (vs cooler base of 1981-2010) from a somewhat solid AN on the prior run to very slightly AN to NN on the new one. This is equivalent to NN vs 1991-2020 base. It cooled ~2 F. Again, fwiw and I’ll believe it will be that “cool” when I see it (due to model cold bias and very low accuracy that far out): New 2 meter DJF E US: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=eus&pkg=T2maMean_month&runtime=2024050100&fh=9 Old: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=eus&pkg=T2maMean_month&runtime=2024040100&fh=10

Fwiw the Mt. Pinatubo eruption, which occurred 6/15/91, was followed by +NAO/+AO not only the next winter but also by an even stronger one the 2nd winter (strongest since 1988-9): https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table

Please post your May 2024 SE obs here. Thanks. The first week of May is looking quite warm and thus more like early summer than late spring. @buckeyefan1Please pin. Thanks.

When you say “potentially interesting” with regard to the items you listed, are you implying anything specific? I’m curious about what you’re thinking. To your list, I’d add the continuing effects of the underwater Hunga Tonga volcano due to the massive amount of moisture emitted. I’ve read one paper with an analysis that suggests that significant global effects, including added warmth on a global basis, will likely continue through ~2029. One thing it suggests is that there’s an increased chance vs climo of a multi-year El Niño later this decade due to this:

1. I don't know about snow, but he says that a mean trough in May near the E coast is often a precursor to big H seasons. So, he wants a trough there. 2. He has been wondering why the Euro weeklies at 2M issued directly by ECMWF have been warmer than the WxBell versions of the weeklies. I've been saying that WxBell maps shouldn't be trusted. Keep in mind that Wxbell SSTa CFS maps keep showing a +PDO late in 2024 vs other CFS maps showing a continuing -PDO. 3. I expect a very active H season, regardless. My hope is that it is similar to 2010.

To clarify: What I actually found for the aggregate of moderate to strong La Niña ONI already by ASO was an AVG of NN H hits rather than BN H US impacts. Of course that’s just an avg as there were still some mod to strong Niña years by ASO that were bad for the US. But the avg for weak Niña or cold neutral ONI in ASO was worse with AN H hits on US. No matter what, there’s still a lot of variability/randomness of course.

As a near coastal resident, 100% of me would love for that to happen even though I’m certainly not betting on it as the odds aren’t good. Regardless, one of the top analogs cited by at least two well-known forecasters in April is 2010 because the MDR in March of 2010 was the 2nd warmest since at least 1981 and only barely behind March of 2024 (gray line just below blue line): In addition and similar to what’s forecasted for 2024, 2010 was La Niña that followed strong El Niño. So, there’s a decent amount of hope for the CONUS to luck out with 2024 tracks ending up similar to 2010. I say “hope” because in 2010 the CONUS had no H hits and only 2 TS that had direct effects (with one only a minimal TS). This was despite it being a very active season with a whopping 12 H and 5 MH, similar to where 2024 seems to be heading as of now. In 2010 (see image below), there were a whopping 8 NS that formed E of 42W. Even when looking at the aggregate of non-El Nino seasons, a large majority of those still don’t make it to the US even though a higher % do vs those during El Niño seasons. Fortunately for the US none made it past 75W, not shocking based on history. There were 7 that formed W of 70W. Not surprisingly, all affected land. Belize and MX were particularly hard hit from this group. The two TS that affected the US were from this group. Though not noted as an analog, 1995 (see image below) was another very active season with 11 H and 5 MH and with somewhat similar tracks. It also was La Niña that followed El Niño. Out of 12 NS that formed E of 72W, none hit the CONUS. But from the 7 that formed W of 73W, unfortunately 5 hit the US including 2 H (one H hit twice)(1 MH), very different from 2010.

The 4/26/24 WCS PDO was -1.12, which is equivalent to a NOAA PDO of ~~-2.0:

Why is there such a strong marine heatwave centered in the WPAC? Why there?

By going to Charlie’s link, I was also able to find the year that spiked so high ~May 25: It was 2005: To compare, here’s 2nd warmest for May 25 (2010): Here’s 5/25/23 for comparison (3rd warmest): Interestingly, 2005 cooled rapidly by June 15 (can see rapid drop on MDR graph with all the years) though it subsequently warmed substantially again.

I‘m talking mainly E US, esp in winter. It isn’t just seasonal. The major MR models as a whole have been too cold much more often than too warm for years. That’s likely why, for example, that there’s more often than not a NW correction of surface lows as we get closer in forecast time. When they have the lows too far SE, they usually prog it to be too cold in the E US. Then they come NW in later runs to match the warmer reality. I suspect it is due to the very warm WPAC that @bluewaveoften mentions. This often causes the atmosphere to act like the MJO is in the MC even when it isn’t. This very warm WPAC has according to a pro met I’ve talked to helped to enhance the “SE ridge” (similar to what the MJO MC phases do), something the models usually underestimate for some reason. If the MR models are too cold, there’s no reason to expect the seasonals to not be similar.

By going to Charlie’s link, I was able to find the year by looking at Mar 1 anomalies of all years one by one in the dataset, 1981+. The answer: 2010. Nothing else is even close in the MDR except, of course, 2024: Map above from here: https://www.psl.noaa.gov/tmp/mddb2/4mMm92fguL/sampleframe.png?timestamp=1714238797151 Here’s the slightly warmer 3/1/24 for comparison: Note that on Mar 1 (as well as during the entire period late Feb-Apr 26) 2024 and 2010 are by far the two warmest. That’s why 2010 has been noted as one of the top analogs by at least two well-known forecasters. Note that 2010 anoms remained very warm through Sep 10:

1. When was the last time in advance of winter that he said the “worry” is it will be warmer than his forecast in the E US? 2. He mentions his energy clients often. Energy companies typically do better when winter is cold in the E US. I think this reinforces his natural cold bias in winter. 3. There was no major SSW in Dec like he thought might occur though there were a couple Jan-Mar. 4. He hardly ever recognizes the cold bias that has prevailed for years with the seasonal models. 5. I’m predicting he’ll once again not go warm for his FINAL winter forecast 2024-5. He’s already been showing strong hints about this. One thing he’s already harping on is suggesting a +PDO next winter based on what are clearly to me faulty Weatherbell CFS SSTa map progs for late in 2024 as I’ve shown, including not showing the E/SE of Japan marine heatwave and instead showing cold in a good portion of the W/C Pac. This is despite TT maps from the same CFS as well as from other models showing -PDO continuing. 6. There isn’t even a single winter when for the bulk of the E US he went warm at least since 2014-5 (I don’t mean just slightly AN) and stayed that way. There was one recently (2020-1) that he started off pretty warm (~+3) and cooled it considerably to NN for his final forecast. His frost covered glasses wouldn’t let him go warm and stay that way: Prelim DJF 20-1 Final DJF 20-21: One thing I will give him kudos for was recognizing the importance of the concept of RONI vs just using ONI due to the very warm SSTs elsewhere that were dominating even though it didn’t help his fcast: “There is little cold water anywhere, so the difference in temperatures (relative SSTs) is nowhere near the standard El Niño”

Thanks for your reply. I know there are major negative factors as I’ve said. I feel that CC is overall clearly a net negative. I’m just saying in the interest of honest discussion that that not every factor has been bad to this point, including deaths from temperature extremes. Like with most things, it isn’t all black and white and I feel it adds credibility to admit this.

The major effects of CC to this point haven’t all been bad on a global basis. For example, fewer deaths from temperature extremes resulting from GW due to cold being a much bigger killer than heat. This is largely due to many more hours spent in the cold danger zone than within the heat danger zone in a large majority of locations: “For the majority of the time, most cities have colder temperatures than their local optimum temperature, or the temperature that minimizes the death rate in that area. “It has been estimated that about 5.1 million excess deaths per year are associated with non-optimal temperatures. Of those, 4.6 million are associated with colder than optimum temperatures, and 0.5 million are associated with hotter than optimum temperatures.” “Deaths associated with non-optimal temperatures have been decreasing over time as it has gotten warmer partly due to a reduction in cold deaths. It has been estimated that warming from 2000 to 2019 has resulted in a net decline in excess deaths globally (a larger decrease in cold deaths than an increase in heat deaths).” https://thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/human-deaths-from-hot-and-cold-temperatures-and-implications-for-climate-change Whereas deaths from temperature extremes have decreased through 2019 per this study, the same study says that there’s much uncertainty looking well out into the future. A good number of models suggest that after deaths continue to drop in the near future, they will start to increase late this century. This is because heat related deaths are being projected by these models to then start increasing more rapidly than the reduction of cold related deaths. From the same study, here’s Figure 10, which shows London as an example: Of course due to that being so far out in the future, there’s lots of uncertainty since increased acclimation/air conditioning could negate a good portion of the projected increase in heat related deaths.

1. It was warmer today here but still very pleasant with dewpoints as low as the upper 40s early this evening. The walking was so enjoyable. 2. 114 years tomorrow Atlanta amazingly enough had 1.5” of snow!! This is to me easily its most freak winter storm there on record. It is 3 weeks later than the second latest accumulating snow there on record, three weeks later than Greensboro’s, one week later than Raleigh’s/GSP’s, and 5 days later than Charlotte’s latest measurables! More details are here: