GaWx

You’re welcome. 1. Yesterday, KW had an air temp low of 82. That was the earliest in the season 82 by 3 days. 2. The low so far today (as of 10PM) is 83. With the 10PM temp being 84 and with there being neither precip nor a cold front nearby, there’s a good chance the low of 83 will hold. If it does it would become the earliest on record 83 low by a whopping 14 days! Edit: the low for yesterday held at 83. 3. The KW buoy water temp has risen significantly since just 4 days ago, when it was 83-4. Today the water high was a whopping 87.4! A year ago today the high was only 84 and it didn’t first hit 86 til May 18th. This is a bit worrisome. Hopefully a wetter pattern will start soon.

Some models have warmed on this month’s runs while some others have cooled. The May UKMET for Aug/Sep rose substantially from April’s ~-1.35 to -1.00 for Nino 3.4. The implied RONI would be a good bit cooler. UKMET and JMA did very well last year. Regardless, several models had either a significant jump or drop this month, telling me there’s still a long ways to go before ONI/RONI can be accurately predicted.

The WB 18Z 5/13 run of the CFS control for Feb 2025 has Memphis a whopping 10 C BN/18 F BN the 1981-2010 climo mean of 45.5! 45.5-18 = 27.5. Coldest on record back to 1875 is 32.0, set in 1899 (before GW). Thus, this prog is for a Feb that is 4.5 colder than the coldest on record (going back 149 years) and that record cold Feb was pre-GW. As long as WB is going to keep feeding JB ridiculously cold impossible CFS maps like this (WB CFS unfortunately are very flawed), he’ll have ammunition to keep suggesting a good shot at a very cold E US 2024-5 winter: Memphis climo: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=meg *Edit 1:57PM: note how once again far N Lake Mich/Lower Mich is amazingly warmer than closeby surrounding areas, symptomatic of a WB (not CFS) bug. Also, much of the US E coast almost always is much warmer anomalywise than just inland on WB CFS maps, which also has to be due to a WB bug. Actually, I’ve noticed that for several years on WB CFS maps.

Last call to see if anyone wants to participate in AmericanWx PGA Championship pool. No money or prizes involved. Just for fun. If interested pick 5 golfers for your team along with what score to par the winner of the tournament will have. For rules, check out PGA Tour thread in Sports Forum and see how I did the Masters. It will be similar though I’m going to handle the score for those who don’t make the cut/withdraw/get a. DQ differently. I’m going to give them the worst finishing score of all of those we pick in the pool. Please post your picks/score of tourney winner in the PGA Tour thread:

On a RONI basis, I feel strong (-1.5-) has a very good chance at this still very early juncture. As of FMA, RONI was already down to +0.48 vs ONI of +1.15. That means RONI was a whopping 0.67 lower than ONI, a record negative difference.

More specifically, I found that all -NAO winters since 1979-80 (only six of them/I define -NAO winters as sub -0.25 since I consider -0.25 to +0.25 neutral NAO) have all occurred when sunspots averaged sub 35. Also, with there having been only 6 of the last 45 winters with a -NAO (only 13%)(1984-5, 1986-7, 1995-6, 2009-10, 2010-1, 2020-1), the frequency has been way lower than that of the prior 25 year period. *Edited for correction of typo Monthly NAO since 1950: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table Monthly sunspots: https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_m_tot_V2.0.txt

The only met I’ve read talking at all about a reasonably potential +PDO next winter is JB and that’s based on WB CFS Pacific SSTa maps for then that strongly disagree with other companies’ (including TT) CFS maps. These all show a solid -PDO. Currently, the PDO is about as strongly negative as it has been since early Oct of 2023! It has been falling as El Niño has been ending. The NOAA based version is ~-2.5 or lower!

Indeed:

This weekend down here was very nice thanks to dewpoints mainly in the 50s.

Welcome back, snowman! You’ve been sorely missed. The ENSO threads aren’t the same without you. When I think of ENSO, I think of snowman as much as anyone!

JB is totally on the highly unlikely winter +PDO bandwagon now. Talking about the correlation of +PDO to cold and snow in the NE US. Still another day showing the WB CFS with a +PDO for next winter. Is he going to mention winter +PDO every day for next 6 months on days when tropics are quiet?

The 0Z 5/11 WB CFS control run for DJF 2024-5 literally has an anomaly of -5C at Chicago which is -9F! This is using 1981-2010 climo. That means this would be the coldest winter on record there even barely beating winters like 1903-4 and 2013-4! Meanwhile, far N Lower Michigan is +1C/+2F! How can that even be possible when Chi is -9F? There’s something seriously off with some of the WB CFS seasonal maps and not just with the SSTa maps that keep showing a +PDO. That’s not JB (though he chose to post it). That’s WB CFS and I can’t recall ever seeing such an amazing discrepancy between frigid WB and AN TT for the same model! Granted, TT maps are for 3 days of runs (12 runs) averaged out vs the WB being just one run. But come on! And again, how could Chi be -9F while N Lower MI is +2F? Edit: How could south central Lake Michigan air temps be -6C/-11F while a mere 150 miles to the north over N Lake Mich it is right at normal?

Somehow there’s a WB 12Z 5/10 CFS NDJ map that JB shows with very cold E 2/3 of the US including 5-7F BN centered over W VA along with a +PDO. Meanwhile, here’s the avg of the last 12 CFS runs from TT with practically the opposite including a -PDO:

I expect to be closely following the water temps in the Keys as we head toward summer. Last summer had a prolonged coral bleaching event as a result of continuous significantly warmer than normal water. A big contributor to this marine heatwave was a drier than normal pattern, which when combined with GW lead to unbelievable ocean heat. Hopefully it won’t be as dry. If not, the waters will almost definitely not be as hot. One thing I learned was that whereas the Key West buoy is in deep enough water to count as comparable to other locations around the world for its water temps, there are some buoys in FL Bay such as Manatee Bay and Johnson Key (see quoted post) with too shallow water along with a dark sea floor to count that way. There’s no coral in these very shallow waters. Several of these buoys had a good number of days with high water temps in the upper 90s to low 100s but with wide diurnal ranges due to the shallowness resulting in lows in the 80s to low 90s. These upper 90 to low 100 water highs were taken out of context (due to not noting the shallowness/wide diurnal ranges) by many media outlets using them for sensationalism to get attention/clicks (see earlier ITT). That results in AGW skeptics using that as ammunition to refute the credibility of any articles related to AGW, sort of a red herring fallacy. Even Dr. Masters noted this. At the same time the deeper KW buoy typically had only a few degree range on most days. The KW buoy was setting its own records on many days with daily water temp means in the low 90s. That was detrimental to the coral. I’ll be especially following the KW buoy water temps. It is currently in the 83-84 range, similar to 5/10/23. Last year, KW waters had significant warming 5/17-24. Once it reached 30C (86F) on 5/18/23, it appears there wasn’t even one hourly reading that went back below that til 8/30/23!! The highest hourly was an amazing and likely all-time record high of 34.0C (93.2F)(on 8/10/23)! This continuous hot water is what hurt the coral. 2023 Key West water temps found here: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/view_text_file.php?filename=kywf1h2023.txt.gz&dir=data/historical/stdmet/

Wow! This is easily the worst thunderstorm I’ve experienced in many months. Lead by very strong winds, torrential rains with CTG lightning followed quickly. I was trying to get home to beat the storm but too many others had the same idea and thus the traffic was so heavy it delayed me. Fortunately I got home safely but it there’s no power. Waiting it out in the car til the rain slackens. Edit: Outage lasted 4 hrs! Measured a much appreciated ~0.8”.

Severe thunderstorm warning in this area.

This volcano was different because it blasted a huge amount of water vapor high up into the atmosphere. This is of course highly unusual. Thus it may have caused a temporary net warming though probably small. I assume it is too early to know: https://www.carbonbrief.org/tonga-volcano-eruption-raises-imminent-risk-of-temporary-1-5c-breach/ https://eos.org/articles/tonga-eruption-may-temporarily-push-earth-closer-to-1-5c-of-warming#:~:text=of Warming - Eos-,Tonga Eruption May Temporarily Push Earth Closer to 1.5°,over the next 5 years.

Perhaps this (see link below). I do wonder myself if Hunga Tonga's eruption of an enormous amount of water into the stratosphere could be a significant factor in the very recent unexplained GW acceleration. Regardless, JB's been talking a lot about a supposed correlation of increased underwater seismic activity since 1990 or so and GW. I think he's reaching without strong evidence and think he's saying this due to his denying that increased CO2 has been a significant factor. https://www.science.org/content/article/massive-undersea-eruption-filled-atmosphere-water Meanwhile, the Atlantic MDR is back to being barely warmer than 2010 meaning the warmest on record since 1982.

The MDR avg anomaly just went back higher than 2010 to being again the warmest on record back to 1982 : https://kouya.has.arizona.edu/tropics/MDRsst.png

If anyone would be interested in competing in an AmericanWx PGA Championship pool, please post about it in here or in the PGA Tour thread (in Sports forum) or like this post as I may do one in the PGA Tour thread if I have time:

Keeping in mind my mention in this quoted post of “fwiw esp due to a cold bias tendency”, note how much warmer is today’s Euro Weekly throughout the US for 5/13-20 (just 3 days later)! @Met1985

I don’t have NAO data from the 1910s. But I can say that back to 1950, 2010-1 had the strongest -NAO for DJ for La Niña on record (season snowfall and DJF temperatures also shown): 2010-1: -1.4/61.9”/temps -3 1970-1: -1.2/15.5”/temps -2 1995-6: -0.9/75.6”/temps -3 1984-5: -0.8/24.1”/temps 0 (N) 2020-1: -0.7/38.6”/temps 0 (N) 1954-5: -0.6/11.5”/temps 0 (N) NAO monthlies back to 1950: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table Regarding the 1910s, these were the La Niña winters per Eric Webb along with their NYC DJF temperatures/full season snowfall (avg 29.8”) using 1901-30 for the base period: 1909-10: 1 BN/~24” 1910-1: 0 (N)/27.2” 1916-7: 1 BN/50.7” 1917-8: 7 BN/34.5” NYC data: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx Eric Webb ENSO 1910s: https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

There’s still way too much uncertainty on about where ONI/RONI will be for ASO. The new (warmer) Euro is *fwiw* forecasting a borderline weak/high end cold neutral La Niña for ASO. The Euro tends to be too warm more often than being too cool (warm bias). Now one might feel that after such a significant cool back in this new run that this latest forecast has a decent chance to not be too warm. Perhaps but who knows? But let’s assume ASO will end up ~-0.5 like it has. Where would RONI likely be? Recent trends would suggest a good chance of it being cooler by, say, 0.4 to 0.7. If that were to verify, you’d have ASO RONI of -0.9 to -1.2. That would be right on the border of the most dangerous for the US 0 to -1.0 and the not as dangerous -1.1-.

Currently, the MDR is 2nd warmest since 1982, barely behind 2010. So, keeping that in mind:

As @Terpeastnoted in the NYC forum, the new Euro strengthened the -PDO for later this year vs its prior run.