GaWx

Also, why is a solid -NAO like 2010-11 even being given serious consideration based on its rarity in winter since 1979-80? I’m not saying it can’t occur since just about anything is possible with wx, especially that far out. But that’s beside the point. I’m talking about serious consideration.

For starters, I think we can throw out 2010-11 as 2010-11 is not a valid analog because it had a very strong -NAO in Dec and Jan. Also, I agree we can throw out 2020-21 because it also had a -NAO. There’s no good reason based on what we know now as well as what long range models are showing to think that there will be anything even close to a strong -NAO next winter. Moreover, -NAO winters have been few and far between since 1979-80. Only 13% of them since then have had a -NAO averaged out over DJF: 1984-5, 1986-7, 1995-6, 2009-10, 2010-11, and 2020-1. All 6 were within two years of a sunspot cycle minimum and had avg sunspot numbers under 35. Next winter will be active with much higher than 35. Coincidence? I don’t know but I maintain that the chances of a solid -NAO next winter similar to DJ of 2010-11 are very low based on the last 45 winters.

He’s been claiming that these (what I know are very flawed) WB CFS SSTa maps are showing a +PDO, not -PDO. This particular one is ironically showing closer to a neutral PDO (which he isn’t acknowledging and which is still way off from TT CFS, which continues to show solid -PDO). But many of the WB CFS runs have been showing a fake large area of BN in much of the W to CPAC from Hawaii W and NW (just like the fake IO BN) while also showing the warmest NPac anomalies to include a large area off Baja. TT CFS maps have been showing nothing of the sort. And now it looks like WB CFS may be finally starting to correct this BS.

He keeps showing individual runs of WB CFS SSTa prog maps for Nov+ that are way off from other companies’ versions of the same model. Most, if not all, of these WB CFS runs he shows are showing solid BN in the IO, including this one for Nov (he likes showing the cold IO on WB CFS maps to suggest a major drop in global temps is coming): https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1791842665056616545/photo/2 But TT CFS totally disagrees. Here’s the avg of the last 12 runs of the TT CFS for Nov showing the cold IO on WB CFS isn’t real: Also, here is TT CANSIPS: And TT NMME: Bottom line: WB CFS prog maps are badly flawed and thus should be dismissed due to inaccurately portraying the CFS.

At 3 PM were these amazingly high HIs: Miami 112 WPB 114 Key Largo 117 These must be records for at least the day, if not the month!

While FMA ONI was +1.15, FMA RONI was already down to +0.48. Weeklies don't exist for RONI. But based on this FMA difference and assuming the difference is currently similar, an equivalent current RONI weekly would likely already be down to -0.2 to -0.4 (cold neutral).

Ft. Lauderdale has had a whopping 11 days in a row of a record high minimum and with another very likely coming today! Along with this, the last 9 days in a row have had a record high mean. This includes yesterday’s 89.5, the highest on record for May (records back to 1913). Also, only one other day has had a warmer mean, the 91.5 of 6/22/2009!

Even just a -1.5 ONI could be enough for the strongest Niña on record on a RONI basis (records back to 1950). The strongest RONI is -1.94 of OND 1973 followed closely by -1.93 of NDJ 1988-9. Keep in mind that the latest RONI (FMA 2024) is a record breaking 0.67 lower than ONI (+0.48 vs +1.15). Here’s the list of strong RONI based La Niña: -1.94 OND 1973 -1.93 NDJ 1988-9 -1.70 OND 2010 -1.67 DJF 1999-00 -1.65 NDJ 1998-9 -1.62 OND 1955 -1.58 DJF 2007-8 -1.52 OND 2020 (corrected) 1995-6 went down only to -0.94. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

@kdxken @Chrisrotary12 and anyone else who may be interested, the deadline to enter the AmericanWx PGA Championship pool with your five players and prediction of the winning 72 hole score to par is 7AM tomorrow. You can go to 2024 PGA Tour thread in Sports Zone forum to enter and see the scoring rules. No prizes/money. Just for fun. Three entered so far.

Yes. Yes I have. Fall, spring and summer have not had the same decline in NAOs. Summer has actually had a notable increase since 2007.

No, I actually normally don’t put too much weight into solar cycles for seasonal forecasting. But I discovered during my research of -NAO winters since 1980 (the period during which the frequency of -NAO winters has sharply declined) that they all were when sunspots averaged under 35. So, I have to wonder whether or not in recent decades being near a solar minimum has been a significant independent factor for a -NAO winter vs it just being a coincidence.

For those who don’t realize it, 2020-1, 2010-1, and 1995-6 were all near solar cycle minimums and they had -NAOs averaged out over DJF.

I’ll add to a likely robust Niña (especially on a RONI basis) a robust -PDO, SE ridge, and W PAC marine heatwave a -NAO being highly unlikely. Only 13% of winters since 1979-80 have had a -NAO and they were all when the avg DJF sunspot number was <35. All 6 -NAO winters occurred within a couple of years of a solar cycle minimum. Interestingly, all 4 cycle minimums had either 1 or 2 -NAO winters within two years. Coincidence?? Regardless, AGW/CC may be the main reason for a big drop in winter -NAO frequency though I’ve yet to see proof of that. I suppose that may be hard to actually prove. As often is the case, any possible major SSWs would be a wildcard with unpredictable consequences for a portion of winter. Also, someone like @roardog , who’s N of Detroit, or someone in, say, Chicago, would have better potential per climo in a robust Niña vs those of us on E coast. And my being near SE coast places me among the least favored by La Niña/SE ridge/-PDO etc. But regardless, I still enjoy winter the most of any season (obviously nothing to do with snow, which is usually nonexistent here in any one winter). A warm winter here is still cooler than a cool fall/spring and with lower dewpoints. La Niña climo:

Key West has had 5 of the last 8 days with record high mean air temps for the date (tied or broken), including the last 3. (Records go all of the way back to 1872): 5/7/24: 83.5 tie 5/10/24: 84.5 broken (old record 84.0) 5/12/24: 84.5 broken (old record 84.0) 5/13/24: 85.5 tie 5/14/24: 88.0 broken (old record 87.0 (2019)) The 88.0 of 5/14/2024 is the earliest in the season mean that warm by 22 days! The prior warmest mean on any May day was 87.0 (5/14/2019 and 5/22/2023). These record high means always occur with little or no rainfall to allow especially the mins to be warm enough (little or no rain cooled air). Key West has had an extremely dry May so far with only 0.03” and no measurable rain the last 10 days: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=key This dryness is helping the nearby buoy water temps to steadily rise into what is likely record warmth for the date. Yesterday it was as high as 87.4! Last year’s (same date) KW buoy warmest water temp was 2.8 cooler at “only” 84.6: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=kywf1 Edit: KW buoy had a water high of 88.2 today, that’s right 88.2 on May 15th!

The sinking of the land (subsidence) largely due to a combination of the weight of buildings and groundwater usage is compounding the sea level rise problem in many big coastal cities such as NYC. So, these cities have the double whammy of independent factors of sea level rise and falling land level: https://www.forbes.com/sites/lauriewinkless/2023/06/15/new-york-city-is-sinking-under-the-weight-of-its-own-buildings/?sh=541e3df62898

You’re welcome. 1. Yesterday, KW had an air temp low of 82. That was the earliest in the season 82 by 3 days. 2. The low so far today (as of 10PM) is 83. With the 10PM temp being 84 and with there being neither precip nor a cold front nearby, there’s a good chance the low of 83 will hold. If it does it would become the earliest on record 83 low by a whopping 14 days! Edit: the low for yesterday held at 83. 3. The KW buoy water temp has risen significantly since just 4 days ago, when it was 83-4. Today the water high was a whopping 87.4! A year ago today the high was only 84 and it didn’t first hit 86 til May 18th. This is a bit worrisome. Hopefully a wetter pattern will start soon.

Some models have warmed on this month’s runs while some others have cooled. The May UKMET for Aug/Sep rose substantially from April’s ~-1.35 to -1.00 for Nino 3.4. The implied RONI would be a good bit cooler. UKMET and JMA did very well last year. Regardless, several models had either a significant jump or drop this month, telling me there’s still a long ways to go before ONI/RONI can be accurately predicted.

The WB 18Z 5/13 run of the CFS control for Feb 2025 has Memphis a whopping 10 C BN/18 F BN the 1981-2010 climo mean of 45.5! 45.5-18 = 27.5. Coldest on record back to 1875 is 32.0, set in 1899 (before GW). Thus, this prog is for a Feb that is 4.5 colder than the coldest on record (going back 149 years) and that record cold Feb was pre-GW. As long as WB is going to keep feeding JB ridiculously cold impossible CFS maps like this (WB CFS unfortunately are very flawed), he’ll have ammunition to keep suggesting a good shot at a very cold E US 2024-5 winter: Memphis climo: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=meg *Edit 1:57PM: note how once again far N Lake Mich/Lower Mich is amazingly warmer than closeby surrounding areas, symptomatic of a WB (not CFS) bug. Also, much of the US E coast almost always is much warmer anomalywise than just inland on WB CFS maps, which also has to be due to a WB bug. Actually, I’ve noticed that for several years on WB CFS maps.

Last call to see if anyone wants to participate in AmericanWx PGA Championship pool. No money or prizes involved. Just for fun. If interested pick 5 golfers for your team along with what score to par the winner of the tournament will have. For rules, check out PGA Tour thread in Sports Forum and see how I did the Masters. It will be similar though I’m going to handle the score for those who don’t make the cut/withdraw/get a. DQ differently. I’m going to give them the worst finishing score of all of those we pick in the pool. Please post your picks/score of tourney winner in the PGA Tour thread:

On a RONI basis, I feel strong (-1.5-) has a very good chance at this still very early juncture. As of FMA, RONI was already down to +0.48 vs ONI of +1.15. That means RONI was a whopping 0.67 lower than ONI, a record negative difference.

More specifically, I found that all -NAO winters since 1979-80 (only six of them/I define -NAO winters as sub -0.25 since I consider -0.25 to +0.25 neutral NAO) have all occurred when sunspots averaged sub 35. Also, with there having been only 6 of the last 45 winters with a -NAO (only 13%)(1984-5, 1986-7, 1995-6, 2009-10, 2010-1, 2020-1), the frequency has been way lower than that of the prior 25 year period. *Edited for correction of typo Monthly NAO since 1950: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table Monthly sunspots: https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_m_tot_V2.0.txt

The only met I’ve read talking at all about a reasonably potential +PDO next winter is JB and that’s based on WB CFS Pacific SSTa maps for then that strongly disagree with other companies’ (including TT) CFS maps. These all show a solid -PDO. Currently, the PDO is about as strongly negative as it has been since early Oct of 2023! It has been falling as El Niño has been ending. The NOAA based version is ~-2.5 or lower!

Indeed:

This weekend down here was very nice thanks to dewpoints mainly in the 50s.

Welcome back, snowman! You’ve been sorely missed. The ENSO threads aren’t the same without you. When I think of ENSO, I think of snowman as much as anyone!