GaWx

Interesting and great observation! You got me curious. So, I looked back to 1850-1950 via Eric Webb’s table. I found that it was a bit different. For that period, I counted after neutral periods ended 12 of 21 (57%) went to El Niño and 9 of 21 (43%) went to La Niña. So, whereas El Niño was somewhat more frequent, it wasn’t nearly like the one-sidedness of 1950+. For 1950+, I count 12 of 13 neutral periods (92%) that went to El Niño after ending and 1 of 13 (8%) that went to La Niña after ending. So, for 1850-present, I count 24 of 34 neutral periods (71%) that went to El Niño and 10 of 34 (29%) that went to La Niña. Thus, when looking at the full 174 year period, there still does appear to be a pretty good favoring of El Niño after neutral periods end. Next I looked at only multi-year long neutral periods. For 1950+, 6 of 6 (100%) went to El Niño. For 1850-1950, 9 of 14 (64%) went to El Niño vs 5 of 14 (36%) going to La Niña. Thus, after 1850-present multi-year neutral periods, 15 of 20 (75%) went to El Niño and 5 of 20 (25%) went to La Niña. That’s pretty significant and thus tells me there really MAY be an inherent favoring of going to El Niño rather than La Niña at the end of multi-year neutral periods as opposed to that being a mere coincidence. So, for strictly single year long neutral periods for 1950+, 6 of 7 (86%) went to El Niño vs 1 of 7 (14%) going to La Niña. But for 1850-1950 I count only 3 of 7 (43%) that went to El Niño vs 4 of 7 (57%) going to La Niña. Thus for 1850-present for strictly single year long neutral, I count 9 of 14 (64%) going to El Niño and 5 of 14 (36%) going to La Niña. This all tells me there’s more of a chance that the single year neutrals going to El Niño more often have been coincidental even though that’s not 100% conclusive. If we assume that going to El Nino after a multi-year neutral period is truly favored over going to La Niña, does anyone have a theory as to why that would be the case?

In addition to Euro warm bias (though not nearly as bad as BoM was last year), folks shouldn't forget that model forecasted ONI needs to be reduced a good bit to best estimate where RONI will be.

From pro met 57 from your area, he not surprisingly doesn't buy the GFS as it is on its own of the ops just like has been the case quite often: "Here's a comparison of the 12Z GFS, Canadian, and Euro valid in 10 days, which is 12Z June 16. Which one is not like the others? This is happening in EVERY basin since the last GFS change (I'm not calling it an "upgrade")." http://wxman57.com/images/12ZModels.JPG

1. My perception that Raindance’s forecast last winter was “sort of deemphasized” can best be illustrated by the lack of replies in his winter forecast thread: There was only a pretty small % of active members posting (including my post) during the subsequent 2 weeks (through Oct 25) followed by not even a single post in Nov-Feb! Rightly or wrongly, that gave me the impression that there was a deemphasis of sorts. If he had had a cold E US forecast, I bet there would have been many more posts there than the 17 replies. I mentioned: “bias resulting from desires for a cold winter. I’m also vulnerable due to the same desire.” When I said this, I wasn’t talking about member forecasts. I was talking about member desires and was thinking that that lead to limited activity in Raindance’s thread. 2. I know you and others (including myself) have a lot of respect for Raindance’s forecast related contributions, especially because of the enormous amount of detail he backs his forecasts up with and how well he has done in recent years. I also realize you and others have his forecasts as “must reads”. I’m not debating that. You’ve been quite vocal about it. 3. Also, I agree with you about the lack of cold/snowy member forecasts. Yes, the most bullish forecasts/hopes were mainly for NN temps/snow with mild/lack of snow in Dec being balanced out via a transition to cold/snowy by Feb. But even these were significantly colder and snowier than Raindance’s. There was a lot of excitement about Feb potential (me included) vs Raindance not showing that. The Euro and other models were fostering this as many runs had beautiful H5 maps in Jan/Feb! They busted horribly! 4. @snowman19@George001, and I think @Stormchaserchuck1were also mild pretty much from the start. Kudos to them. Snowman19 got numerous weenies, especially when he posted Paul Roundy tweets. George also got some. But alas, they were pretty much right after all! 5. I have an enormous amount of respect for your forecast related contributions! I put Raindance, Griteater (though I don’t know if he did a formal forecast last winter), and yourself at the top as far as member preparation/time put into them and details shown to back them up.

Raindance and others, Per the above WPO data for 2018-24: - All but one winter (2021-2) had +WPO - All Marches had +WPO - May had a lower WPO than preceding winter’s avg WPO in all cases except May after 2021-2 - All but one summer (2023) had a -WPO, the exact opposite of winter. This reminds me of the prevailing more negative NAO of recent summers vs winters. - Every Dec rose vs prior August and all but one rose over 1.00 - So, considering all of the above, seasonal trends have been a major factor during this period. Keeping this in mind, is the flip to a -WPO in May (-0.27, the first -WPO month since Oct), itself, signifying anything different from the prevailing 2018-2023 pattern? Is this flip likely signifying much regarding the WPO for the next winter? - Raindance, I read that your gut favors a -WPO Aug-Oct. But what does your gut say about next winter’s WPO?

Not picking on you or anyone in particular. When Raindance says warm E US winter, he’s sort of deemphasized. But when he says something that appears to possibly promote something other than a warm E US winter (even if it is just a snippet and even if he doesn’t outrightly say he’s expecting cold there), he becomes the must listen to guru by the E US cold winter lovers. Last winter, he was pretty much warm in the E until Mar. Thus he wasn’t getting too much attention before Mar. As Mar came, the attention increased because of Raindance’s chilly Mar since he did well with his warmth through Feb. I’m just having fun but y’all have to know this is pretty much true and that it’s due to bias resulting from desires for a cold winter. I’m also vulnerable due to the same desire.

1. The winter of 2017-8 had a +WPO. https://psl.noaa.gov/tmp/gcos_wgsp/data.73.21.103.151.156.12.50.31.txt 2. Is a -WPO being forecasted by the consensus of models (excluding Weatherbell CFS output, which is totally untrustworthy for reasons I’ve stated)?

Not necessarily Modoki but the models are showing at least basinwide, which would be in contrast to the E based Nina of 2017-8 and this was my point. I said “more basinwide”. The contrasts of this and the other 4 factors couldn’t be much bigger vs 2017-8. Also, @snowman19of course meant 2017-8 rather than the 2016-7 he has in his last post.

Interesting discussion he did in advance of the winter of 2017-8 for the SE saying a benign winter wasn’t a shoe-in for 2017-8 largely because of a combo of the Niña not being strong (turned out E based moderate based on RONI), a strong (and dropping) -QBO (at 30 mb), and a very weak sun. His suspicions turned out to be prophetic. Jan was very cold and Dec/Jan ended up quite wintry with three major winter storms. One of those was a once in a multidecadal SE coastal storm that gave even my rarely hit area the biggest hit since at least Dec of 1989. How do these and other anticipated factors for 2024-5 compare? It couldn’t be that much more opposite: 1. very likely rising +QBO vs falling strong -QBO in 2017-8 (30 mb) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index 2. likely stronger and more basin-wide Niña expected based on RONI vs E based moderate of 2017-18 RONI: lowest -1.25 in NDJ of 2017-18 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt Monthly SSTa showing it E based in 2017-18: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii 3. many more sunspots a near certainty with it progged near max (sunspots (well) over 100) vs only 8.5 in 2017-8 https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_m_tot_V2.0.txt 4. Strong -PDO progged vs neutral in 2017-8: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat 5. Warmer globe vs 2017-8: 2023 was significantly warmer than 2022/earlier years (record breaking) and 2024 hasn’t backed off yet

The NOAA PDO for May of 2024 comes in way down at -2.97, which compares to the May WCS PDO of -1.86. The last time the May PDO was lower than this was way back in 1950. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/ That tells me that the last few days of NOAA PDOs have very likely been near -4. I’m educatedly guessing that the upcoming winter NOAA PDO will average -1.5 or lower based on the model progs and recent trends. The last 3 winters have been sub -1.5. Getting a sub -2 will be very tough based on there having been only four that low since 1853-4. But there have been 16 sub -1.5 and La Niña will help the chance for, say, a -1.5 to -1.75 winter. I’ll be surprised if it isn’t sub -1.

The avg NAO has, indeed, risen during winter since 1979-80. However, we also know that it has fallen during summer since 2007. So, might the NAO change in recent decades be close to a wash? Are they just talking about winter?

It wouldn't at all surprise me if the hottest highs in much of the Midwest would be cooler due to significantly higher avg relative humidity/much higher crop coverage keeping the ground from heating up as much. Actually, I'd expect that. But I'd expect the lows to be higher.

The Key West buoy’s water temp has come down considerably since the high peaked at a record high for May of 92.3 late on 5/29/24. It is now down to 86.7, which compares to 90.0 at the same time on May 29 & 30. So, a 3.3F drop essentially. A wetter pattern in recent days has been a big help. Watching this area carefully especially because of the threat of more coral bleaching as occurred in 2023: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=kywf1

The all important RONI ONI difference for MAM is out: -0.64. RONI +0.11 ONI +0.75 RONI ONI difference: DJF: -0.58 JFM: -0.63 FMA: -0.66 (record low; records back to 1950) MAM: -0.64 So, the difference is holding as we go toward La Niña. That’s why I’ve been saying that the equivalent RONI weeklies recently likely had already gotten to ~-0.5. Based on the dailies bouncing back slightly in recent days, I’d guess the equivalent RONI dailies have probably bounced back to the -0.4 to -0.3 vicinity. RONI: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt ONI: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt

It is never bad to question the climo base as differences can cause different output. But in this case I don’t see that being the reason. WB uses 1981-2010 whereas TT uses 1984-2009. Not the same but they’re close. Also, WB CFS anomalies are much colder in some areas and warmer in others. From just N of Hawaii westward for 4,000 miles, WB CFS is solidly BN vs AN on TT CFS while just off N America WB CFS is solidly AN (warmer than just about the rest of the NPac) vs NN on TT CFS. So, WB is much colder in one area and warmer in another.

The latest versions of the extended climate models for next winter on Tropical Tidbits (CFS, CANSIPS, NMME) are all keeping the warmest NPac SST anomalies in the W 1/2 of the ocean and are thus maintaining a robust -PDO. The same can be said for the Weather Bell versions of the CANSIPS and Euro. However, for an unexplained reason, the Weather Bell SSTa CFS maps, which have major differences in various parts of the globe, have been suggesting on most runs a +PDO with a large cold tongue extending from SE of Japan E to just N of Hawaii and a strong warm area just off W N America. It makes no sense for the same model for the same period to show near polar opposite output. It looks to me like there’s a serious bug in the WB CFS output.

Does it matter that much exactly what month the peak is determined to have occurred (which I’d think would have to be after the fact, regardless) if the peak is indeed going to end up occuring in early 2025?

1. Consistent with this, note how frequent were -NAOs in winter mid-50s through early 70s. The winters since 2011-2 have been the exact opposite! 2. The only -NAO winters (sub -0.25 using the NOAA table’s values, which are slightly different from what your graph shows) since 1979-80 have all been in the general vicinity of solar minimums for the last four cycles. Coincidence? I don’t know but it at least looks like there may be a relationship in this age of rare -NAO winters. If so, the next good shot at one or two maybe near the end of the 2020s. @snowman19knows about this. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

1. Winter months with both -NAO and +PNA since 2000: 11 of 74 (15%) 12/2020, 2/2013, 1/2011, DJF 2009-10, 12/2005, 1/2004, 12/2002, 12/2001, 12/2000 2. Same for summer months: 17 of 72 (24%) JJA of 2023, 8/2021, 7/2020, 7/2019, 8/2019, 7/2016, 7/2015, 8/2014, 8/2011, 7/2010, 8/2010, 6/2009, 7/2009, 8/2008, 7/2007, 7/2005, 8/2004 So, 60% higher frequency of -NAO/+PNA for summer months vs winter months since 2000 Edit: contrast much higher since 2012 with only 2 of 38 (5%) for winter vs 10 of 36 (28%) for summer

I need to clarify something. Those are years that I listed. I went back and modified the post to prevent any more confusion. So, that wasn’t a huge 2 day jump from May 22nd to May 24th. Rather, that was a large rise from May of 2022’s hottest of 87.3 to May of 2024’s hottest of 92.3. Also, this 92.3 of 5/29/24 was 4.9 warmer than the avg of the hottest in Mays of 2005-22 as well as 2.2 warmer than that for any other May back at least to 2005. Good news is that KW buoy down to 87.3F this morning, which compares to 90.0F at same time on May 29th and 30th. As if 87.3F is cool lol. Indeed, Atlantic as a whole is boiling. I don’t get any snow way down here in an avg winter but I still prefer the winter not be mild. This hurts those chances.

Has anyone here read this? If so, any thoughts? https://theethicalskeptic.com/2020/02/16/the-climate-change-alternative-we-ignore-to-our-peril/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Before anyone says he denies AGW, “I am a proponent of addressing anthropogenic global warming as a first priority for mankind. I first adopted the ‘Venus – runaway greenhouse effect’ paradigm (applied to Earth’s climate) after reading Carl Sagan’s groundbreaking work outlined in his book, The Cosmic Connection. Since that time, I’ve worked more extensively than most inside efforts targeting mitigation of volatile organic compounds, alkanes, methane, and carbon monoxide/dioxide contribution on the part of mankind.” and “I have shared in the grave concern over human contribution to the stark rise in global temperatures now obviously underway.”

The Key West buoy at 6Z on 6/1 (map time) can be confirmed to have been 89.4F/31.9C. It peaked at a May record breaking 92.3F/33.5C on 5/29/24! Before 2024, the record May high SST was 90.1F/32.3C, which was in 2023. Before 2023, the May record was 89.1F/31.7C (2017). Records go back to 2005.

Now look at the PDO: -3.04

Key West buoy SST in May of 2024 peaked way up at 33.5C/92.3F on 5/29/24! Records go back to 2005. The previous May’s hottest on record was the 32.3C/90.1F of 2023! Year/That May’s hottest KW SST 2024: 33.5C/92.3F hottest in May 2023: 32.3C/90.1F 2nd hottest in May 2022: 30.7C/87.3F 21: 31.4C/88.5F 20: 30.3C/86.5F 3rd coolest 19: 31.5C/88.7F 4th hottest 18: N/A 17: 31.7C/89.1F 3rd hottest 16: 30.9C/87.6F 15: 31.4C/88.5F 14: 29.7C/85.5F 2nd coolest 13: 30.7C/87.3F 12: 31.1C/88.0F 11: 30.5C/86.9F 10: 31.2C/88.2F 09: 30.8C/87.4F 08: 31.2C/88.2F 07: 29.0C/84.2F coolest 06: 30.8C/87.4F 05: 30.8C/87.4F 05-22 May hottest avg: 30.8C/87.4F For the period 2005-12, the hottest KW SST was 33.6C (in July). Compare that to the 33.5C of 5/29/24!

The swing from Nina to Nino leads to warming but not normally as early as the timing of the sudden sharp GW in 2023, which started about now. Why would AGW by itself cause such sharp GW? Its warming has been much more gradual. Thus I remain suspicious of other factors contributing, including Tonga. Perhaps El Nino had an earlier than normal influence. If so, why? RONI was still only neutral then though it had warmed from ~-1C in NDJ. But if it was, why hasn't it cooled back any yet? Maybe it really was mainly from AGW. I'm open minded.