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GaWx

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  1. Today’s Euro Weeklies are warmer for 3/11-18 and not as cold 3/18-25 vs yesterday’s run.
  2. Today’s Euro Weeklies are warmer for 3/11-18 and not as cold 3/18-25 vs yesterday’s run.
  3. https://atlas.niu.edu/forecast/aam/cfsv2_aam_fcst_current.png
  4. Consistent with this, much of the SE will end up only 1-2 F AN this DJF. I consider that within the NN range. To compare, 2022-23 was 4-5 AN in the same areas or 3F warmer (270 fewer heating degree days) resulting in a very mild winter.
  5. OHC steep drop continues with it down to -0.2, an indicator of a good chance for La Niña later this year.
  6. GLAAM prediction fwiw from CFS ens: goes slightly negative for next 10 days followed by a rise to weak/moderate positive mid to late March meaning an attempt of one last El Niñoish pattern then?
  7. I agree that being in phase 5 in March isn’t itself a warm signal. We happened to have talked about this same thing earlier today in the SE. I had myself assumed it was similar to met winter and thus had at first assumed phases 4 and 5 had a warm signal. Then I was corrected and I agreed with the correction when I saw what’s below. Looking closely at it, it shows both 4 and 5 averaging near normal for FMA in both the SE and TN Valley fwiw with average anomalies between -0.3C and +0.3C. I say fwiw because as we know the MJO is just one factor even though an important one. These are averages of numerous cases with some BN, some NN, and some AN. Phase 8 is also mainly near normal while 6 and 7 have averaged generally warmer than normal while 1-3 have averaged mainly colder than normal per the same source. I saw that today’s Weeklies start off mild for most days of Mar 1-10 in much of our areas with a transition to cold dominating the 2nd half of Mar. However, I’m taking especially the 2nd half of Mar cold prediction with a huge grain due to recent too cold predictions by all of the models. The Weeklies have strong -AO/-NAO blocking along with a moderate +PNA/Aleutian troughing. The problem though is that the AO and NAO forecasts made just 2 weeks ago for now/late Feb were a huge bust: Also, the +PNA ended much more quickly than forecasted. So, it remains to be seen to say the least whether or not these will verify though it appears that the forecast for -AO and -NAO would probably have a weak SPV to support them.
  8. Indeed. The one exception this winter was in late Dec, when they were still predicting mainly mild for that mid Jan week that was then just over two weeks out and that turned out to be the coldest of the winter. What an odd curve ball that was. Some areas predicted on this map to be +5 for that week ended up -20 instead!
  9. They and all the models, including ensembles only 10 or so days out, were fooled by this non existing strong AO/NAO block predicted for mid-Feb. So, then it looked to me like the Bleaklies, extended GEFS, and the CFS ensemble were going to score a big victory once mid Feb. would arrive since the medium range ensembles all now had this. The GEFS as I posted about still had very strong blocking through the Feb 8 run and then it backed off each day more and more til it vanished. So, I had fallen for it.
  10. For the purpose of making the readers laugh and not to be taken seriously, the Euro Bleaklies have for March a mild first third, a short transition, and then a cold last half due to a combo of +PNA/Aleutian Low and a strong -NAO/-AO. I feel like I’m having deja vu all over again as Yogi Bera would say. Don’t shoot the messenger as I’m just messaging the super important inaccurate Bleaklies. Nothing much else is happening anyway.
  11. Even down in this area, we’re in a wintry precip “drought” of sorts. It has been 6 years, 1.5 months since the last T of wintry precip. Not getting even a T has happened in ~50% of seasons and not getting measurable has happened in ~5/6 of seasons. So, for any one cold season, not getting any isn’t the least bit unusual and getting any measurable is a special treat. But not getting even a T for over 6 years is highly unusual as it hasn’t happened since at least the 1880s-1870s. In the 1920s, there was a 5 years, 11 month drought.
  12. Morning lows at KSAV 2/19-21: 33, 34, 36 One last sub 40 in the string likely tonight and then Sun (2/25). Another beautiful, very low dewpoint day with another high in the middle 60s expected today. A great time to be outside with pollen still moderate, no bugs, and near perfect wx!
  13. My bad. I was in DJF mode. In reality, phases 4 and 5 average near normal in the SE for FMA with 6 and 7 the warmest ones averaged out. Coldest averaged out are 1, 2 and 3. But regardless, MJO phase correlations are only moderate:
  14. Today’s MJO forecasts suggest an increased chance for moderate or stronger phases 4 and 5 starting ~March 5. The folks wanting it mild to warm then should be happy about this though the correlation of those phases to warmth isn’t that strong as MJO correlations tend to be moderate. Also although very much a fwiw being how poorly they’ve done, yesterday’s Euro Weeklies are mainly mild Mar 1-10.
  15. It wasn’t just the extended models that failed badly. Failing that far out isn’t at all unusual due to low skill. But look at how badly the GEFS (other models were similar) busted with the very strong -AO predictions made 2/6-8 for 2/13-20: 2/6 predicted -3.5 2/7 predicted -3.0 2/8 predicted -3.2 2/6 AO prediction: -3.5 for 2/13-20 (all days sub -3.0!) Actual AO: -0.6 for 2/13-20 (2/16-20 all ended up above all 30 2/6 prediction’s members!)(2/20 ended up +2 vs -3 progs!) https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.gefs.z1000.120days.csv
  16. I was curious because I had never analyzed this. The following analysis of the top 10 ACE seasons suggests to me that a weak to moderate correlation of ACE to BOS/NYC snowfall the next cold season quite possibly exists, especially BOS, though ACE definitely shouldn’t be weighted heavily: Top 10 ACE years/snowfall following cold season 1933 NYC: 52.0”; BOS: 62.7”; mod La Nina 2005 NYC: 40.0”; BOS: 39.9”; wk La Nina 1893 NYC: 39.2”; BOS: 64.0”; mod La Nina 1926 NYC: 22.3”; BOS: 41.1”; neutral 1995 NYC: 75.6”; BOS: 107.6”; mod La Nina 2004 NYC: 41.0”; BOS: 86.6”; wk El Niño 2017 NYC: 40.9”; BOS: 59.9”; mod La Niña 1950 NYC: 9.3”; BOS: 29.7”; neutral 1961 NYC: 18.1”; BOS: 44.7”; neutral 1998 NYC: 12.7”; BOS: 36.4”; strng La Nina AVG NYC for top 10 ACE: 35.1” vs 28.5” mean of all years since 1868-9 or 23% above mean snowfall 2 MAN (including record heaviest), 4 AN, 0 NN, 2 BN, 2 MBN; 60% of top 10 ACE seasons had above snowfall median to follow —————————————- AVG BOS for top 10 ACE: 57.3” vs 43.1” mean all years since 1890-1 or 33% above mean snowfall 2 MAN (both in top 5), 3 AN, 4 NN, 1 BN, 0 MBN; 70% of top 10 ACE seasons had above snowfall median to follow ———————————— ACE: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy#:~:text=Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is,into a single index value. NYC: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx BOS: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=box *Edit: This is a small sample but is it possible that a moderate La Niña has a notable correlation to heavier snow in BOS and/or NYC? Anyone know?
  17. The historical data (each year's ACE and each winter's snowfall by EC city) is out there in case someone wanted to see if there's any significant correlation.
  18. This EPO dipped only down to -218 vs the models showing -300: 2024 02 12 -47.15 2024 02 13 -167.32 2024 02 14 -186.38 2024 02 15 -187.46 2024 02 16 -216.35 2024 02 17 -218.04 2024 02 18 -150.94
  19. As bad as all of the models have been, we shouldn’t trust ANY tropospheric model output for over a few days into the future. The strat progs are less unreliable because the strat is normally a bit easier for the models to forecast than the troposphere. But even so, the actual effect of the strat on the troposphere would still be more uncertain. Even if this next SSW along with followup weak SPV were to verify, who’s to say that that would lead to a new round of -NAO and/or -AO? After the major bust of the -AO and -NAO for the current period, I wouldn’t trust them, regardless. And then even if that were to occur, who’s to say that that would definitely lead to a colder E US?
  20. From today’s Euro Weeklies, here’s the 10 mb winds: next major SSW ~March 4-5 followed by a dip of the mean way down to -10 m/s during ~3/8-10, lowest this season for any of the progged SSWs beating yesterday’s -8. Many members dip to sub -15. Then the mean stays weak the rest of March. Will the NAO/AO respond by also dipping?
  21. The last few runs of the GFS hts at 10 mb have suggested the winds getting well down into the second most negative territory for March back to 1959. Although that means it is very likely overdone, it does show how strong a signal there is for yet another major SSW ~March 5th. The 12Z at 384 has a strat HIGH over the N pole (~3,175 dm), where more typically there’s a low there or nearby (the SPV). The SPV on this is very weak (~3010 dm) and is way south in the Atlantic near 53N! It doesn’t get much weaker/displaced than that. So, take the level of weakness shown with a grain.
  22. Lows of 33 yesterday and 34 today here. Those are ~10 BN. A couple more lows in the 30s are quite possible. Yesterday’s high was 63 with plenty of sun. The next two days look pretty similar with dewpoints in the upper 20s to 30s and sunny skies. Absolutely gorgeous and great for the outdoors! I wish it were like this all year round.
  23. As per the post I’m quoting, look at how badly the GEFS (other models were similar) busted with the very strong -AO predictions made 2/6-8 for 2/13-20: 2/6 predicted -3.5 2/7 predicted -3.0 2/8 predicted -3.2 2/6 prediction: -3.5 for 2/13-20 (all days sub -3.0!) Actual: -0.6 for 2/13-20 (2/16-20 all ended up above all 30 2/6 prediction’s members!) https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.gefs.z1000.120days.csv
  24. 1. RONI max through NDJ: 2023-4 doesn’t fit in as it is only borderline moderate/strong 2023-4: +1.49 2015-6: +2.39 1997-8: +2.35 1982-3: +2.53 1972-3: +2.26 2. MEI max through DJ: 2023-4 doesn’t fit in as it is only low end moderate 2023-4: +1.1 2015-6: +2.2 1997-8: +2.2 1982-3: +2.6 1972-3: +1.9 RONI data: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt MEI data: https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ https://www.webberweather.com/multivariate-enso-index.html
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