GaWx

Based on 12Z runs I assume since 18Z runs not out yet. Those maps have a lag. Biggest S shift of 12Zs was UKMET I believe.

Good stuff! I see that the greatest increase is in the Midwest. I wonder what % of that heavy precip increase is due to increased crop sizes/transpiration/RH/dewpoints, which is itself partially related to AGW. Also, I bet that slightly increased rainfall rates from TCs along with slightly slower avg speed of movement (both related to AGW) have contributed a good bit to the TX/S Plains and E US increases.

The ICON has some company at 12Z as the JMA (I know, not at all one of the better models) has Beryl hit Galveston. Also, the NAVGEM (I know it is probably an even worse model in general) has a hit at mid-TX coast. So, both of these are very much in the fwiw category.

12Z summary of the main/least inaccurate globals: 1) Euro and UKMET very similar in the vicinity of Tampico on S end 2) ICON TX/LA border on N end 3) in between are CMC halfway between Tampico and the TX border and the GFS at MX/TX border

12Z Euro: 1) slightly further S than prior 3 runs at Jamaica with it barely offshore, which would normally be a terrible track for Jamaica 2) crosses Yucatan just N of Belize border, which is slightly S of 6Z/0Z runs 3) landfalls just N of Tampico, which is similar to 0Z

I’m a RONIer more than an ONIer. If Nino regions are, say, +2, but surrounding tropical regions are, say, +1, I feel that that’s probably going to act more like an El Niño with Nino regions at +1 and surrounding near 0 rather than acting more like a Nino with +2 and surrounding at 0. To a bigger hypothetical extreme, let’s say all tropical waters are +2. If Nino regions are also at +2, how is that going to act like El Niño with no contrast to surrounding waters? I used it starting last year when I learned about it and I’m using it again this year. Last year was a borderline moderate/strong El Nino peak per RONI. We’ll see where RONI dips to this year. I earlier thought that moderate to strong La Niña RONI dip was a high probability. Now I think that the chances for a dip to strong La Niña per RONI have diminished due to the sluggishness of the last few weeks. You said last year’s El Nino didn’t act like a moderate. But did it act like a borderline strong/super? I know it was mild in the NE US but was that mainly due to the effects of a strong/super El Nino or to something else like the very warm WPAC taking over like it has in recent years?

12Z UKMET: useful for track (not for strength): Compared to 12Z: 1) a touch S of 0Z run at Jamaica 2) 75 miles further S at Yucatan but still N of Belize border 3) much further S back to near Tampico like yesterdays runs vs today’s 0Z into TX GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 02.07.2024 HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 67.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 02.07.2024 0 15.0N 67.6W 951 110 0000UTC 03.07.2024 12 16.1N 71.7W 979 81 1200UTC 03.07.2024 24 16.9N 75.4W 990 63 0000UTC 04.07.2024 36 17.8N 79.0W 995 54 1200UTC 04.07.2024 48 18.4N 82.8W 999 45 0000UTC 05.07.2024 60 18.6N 86.2W 999 43 1200UTC 05.07.2024 72 19.3N 88.5W 1003 33 0000UTC 06.07.2024 84 19.8N 91.7W 1001 36 1200UTC 06.07.2024 96 20.5N 93.8W 1003 35 0000UTC 07.07.2024 108 21.3N 95.4W 1000 40 1200UTC 07.07.2024 120 22.2N 96.8W 999 39 0000UTC 08.07.2024 132 23.4N 98.2W 1000 38 1200UTC 08.07.2024 144 CEASED TRACKING

If he’s actually saying that last year’s true metric was ONI and this year RONI is the true metric, I’d agree with you as I believe in being consistent first and foremost since otherwise it would make me suspicious of a bias. But is snowman actually saying that? @snowman19, what say you?

Even if an overall mild winter verifies, which I’m currently expecting, especially the further S one goes (vs normals), I agree with you about good potential for short-lived cold periods, especially in your area and further N. Regardless, 2025-6 is the one I’m much more excited about for potential.

As is the case with most mild winters, there likely would still be several favorable periods for the NE US even if a mild winter verifies. Regardless, it is the subsequent winter that I’m much more excited about for potential.

The NHC is forecasting for Jamaica as much as 5-8 feet surge “in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast”. That was raised from 4-6 ft in the prior advisory. They are forecasting highest winds of 140 mph while approaching from ESE of Jamaica and then weakening to 120 mph when it is nearest to W Jamaica. So, it is saying solid cat 3 hit on Jamaica. These 6 MH since 1903 had analogous WNW tracks on approach to Jamaica and thus should give a good hint of what will likely occur since these moved either just S of or right over Jamaica: 1) MHs that moved WNW just S of Jamaica: Dean (2007) Ivan (2004) 2) MHs that moved WNW right over Jamaica: Gilbert (1988) Charlie (1951) Storm #4 (1944) Storm #2 (1903)

Jamaica’s only chance to avoid a very bad hit may be that shear between it and Beryl. So, that’s my hope to weaken it appreciably though it may not be enough to make much difference. Unfortunately, when looking at analogous tracks with a solid speed of movement from the E or ESE at/near Jamaica, I’m kind of discouraged. These storms, 1951’s Charlie, 1974’s Carmen, 1988’s Gilbert, 2001’s Iris, 2004’s Charley and Ivan, 2005’s Dennis and Emily, and Dean of 2007 either only weakened slightly, were steady, or strengthened on the way to Jamaica. As strong as it already is, I doubt it will be stronger than it is now once it gets there but am concerned it may only weaken slightly at most based on these 9 analogs and still be a MH. Fingers crossed it will weaken substantially.

0Z UKMET: big changes as it now skirts S coast of Jamaica, about worst possible track for them and would easily be worst hit there since Dean of 2007. Also, now crosses NE Yucatan on way to a central TX landfall with it restrengthening on way to TX. Prior run was Tampico! Ignore the winds (too low) and pressures (too high): MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 02.07.2024 HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 63.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 02.07.2024 0 13.6N 63.8W 965 95 1200UTC 02.07.2024 12 15.2N 67.7W 977 78 0000UTC 03.07.2024 24 16.3N 71.6W 985 69 1200UTC 03.07.2024 36 17.0N 75.3W 995 51 0000UTC 04.07.2024 48 18.2N 78.8W 1000 47 1200UTC 04.07.2024 60 19.2N 82.7W 1002 42 0000UTC 05.07.2024 72 20.0N 86.0W 1002 40 1200UTC 05.07.2024 84 21.3N 89.0W 1005 39 0000UTC 06.07.2024 96 22.2N 91.6W 1003 35 1200UTC 06.07.2024 108 24.2N 93.8W 1002 38 0000UTC 07.07.2024 120 25.5N 95.6W 998 36 1200UTC 07.07.2024 132 26.3N 96.5W 994 49 0000UTC 08.07.2024 144 27.2N 97.0W 994 51 1200UTC 08.07.2024 156 28.9N 97.3W 995 38 0000UTC 09.07.2024 168 29.7N 98.3W 998 30

1) Jamaica H landfalls since 1950, the first two of which were very bad major H hits from the E 1951: Charlie (E to W)(MH) 1988: Gilbert (E to W)(MH) 2012: Sandy (S to N on E end) 2) Jamaica H close misses since 1950: Ivan and Dean very bad hits passing just S: 1950: King (W) 1964: Cleo (N) 1974: Carmen (S) 1980: Allen (N) 2001: Iris (S) 2004: Charley (S) and Ivan (S)(very bad hit) 2005: Dennis (NE) 2007: Dean (S)(very bad hit)

CANSIPS H5 for DJF: Aleutian high, moderate -PNA, strong -PDO, SE ridge (especially considering it’s been underdone during La Niña/neutral ENSO for years), +AO, +NAO. And that’s not even assuming the common E US cold bias this and most climate models have been exhibiting for years. Also, it is dry. So, what’s to like? Translation: looks like a crappy winter for the bulk of the E US. I’m not mad as it is what it is. Besides, winter is always my favorite season no matter what!

It is now moving at 22 mph!

It, indeed, would be nice and I’ll hope for it. Unfortunately though, the 7 years before 2024 with at least one MH in May-July ALL had stronger storms than their respective early storms after July and all but one had stronger landfalls after July: 1. 2005 had early MHs Emily 160 mph and Dennis 145 at peaks. Even as strong as Emily was, 3 later storms were stronger than Emily (185-175)! Regarding landfalls, Emily hit at 130 and Dennis at 140 at their strongest. But Wilma hit Cozumel at 150. 2. 1957’s early MH 125 mph/946 mb Audrey was not as strong as Carrie’s peak 140 mph/945 mb. However, Audrey’s 125 mph landfall was by far the strongest landfall of the season. That is the only case on record for which an early season MH had the strongest landfall of the season. 3. 1926’s early MH Nassau H peaked at 140 and landfalled at 135. But Great Miami H peaked/landfalled at 150 in Bahamas. And the Great Havana H also peaked/landfalled at 150 (in Cuba). 4. 1966’s MH Alma peaked/landfalled at 115. But Faith reached 120 (no landfall) and Inez peaked/landfalled way up at 165 (DR). 5. 2008’s MH Bertha peaked at 125 with no landfall. But 4 later storms were stronger (155-130). 6. 1916 had two early MHs, the stronger of which peaked/landfalled at 120. But the later in season TX H peaked/landfalled at 130. 7. 1996’s MH Bertha peaked at 115 and landfalled in NC at 105. But 3 later storms peaked stronger (145-120) and Fran landfalled at 120 in NC. May-July major ATL hurricanes: https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/articles/early-season-major-hurricanes

Thanks for posting this (6/26-30 avg for 2N to 2S). I see that the the upper 50-75m E of 140W and the upper 100-125m W of there is still surprisingly warm for a supposed oncoming La Nina even knowing it isn’t a “relative” map. See the top map below to see how it compares to 6 days earlier.

Indeed. Interestingly, it appears that the record high RONI minus ONI was +0.53 set in DJF of 1975-6.

12Z UKMET vs 0Z: slightly further N with a little closer to Jamaica and landfall on Yucatan just N of Belize instead in N Belize; final landfall Tampico: HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 60.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 01.07.2024 0 12.1N 60.5W 963 91 0000UTC 02.07.2024 12 13.7N 63.8W 981 71 1200UTC 02.07.2024 24 15.1N 67.7W 986 65 0000UTC 03.07.2024 36 16.0N 71.8W 993 59 1200UTC 03.07.2024 48 16.5N 75.7W 998 52 0000UTC 04.07.2024 60 17.3N 79.0W 1000 45 1200UTC 04.07.2024 72 18.0N 82.9W 1001 37 0000UTC 05.07.2024 84 18.1N 86.0W 1001 37 1200UTC 05.07.2024 96 18.7N 88.4W 1004 33 0000UTC 06.07.2024 108 19.4N 91.7W 1005 36 1200UTC 06.07.2024 120 20.5N 93.5W 1006 40 0000UTC 07.07.2024 132 20.9N 95.6W 1006 35 1200UTC 07.07.2024 144 21.7N 97.0W 1006 32 0000UTC 08.07.2024 156 CEASED TRACKING

I as a near coastal resident obviously would want that to be the case. But even then a later storm with a 140 mph landfall instead of 150 would of course still be potentially quite devastating/just about as bad. The bar for this season is so high now that not getting another landfall as strong isn't necessarily saying much.

Thankfully it is moving along at a pretty fast clip of 20 mph thus shortening the duration of effects on the Windwards somewhat vs what would have occurred with slower movement.

0Z Euro: a little S of Jamaica to Belize to Tampico. 0Z UKMET also into Belize.

Impending very sad and scary situation for those islands. But at least it has weakened a little for now. Fingers crossed it won’t restrengthen before passing them. It’s going to be bad enough as it is barring a near miracle.

As expected they just canceled the planned 7/3 stop in Jamaica. However, somewhat to my surprise they kept the 7/2 stop in Grand Cayman. I thought they’d probably also cancel that to be extra conservative to at least stay far enough away from higher waves. So, they’ll be in Cozumel on 7/1, GC on 7/2, and have an extra day at sea on 7/3.