GaWx

^ Interesting stat. Here is that record tying 10th PTC advisory: Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 1100 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 ...CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.0N 70.6W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 500 PM AST Wed Jun 29 2022 ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.6N 69.0W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF CURACAO ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM ESE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES ------------------------- Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 500 PM AST Wed Jun 29 2022 The system has changed little in organization today, and in fact has taken on a more elongated appearance. Most of the heavier showers and stronger winds are occurring in a long band over the northern portion of the disturbance. Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and a Dvorak classification indicate that the current intensity remains near 35 kt. High-resolution visible satellite images suggest that the system may trying to close off a center to the south of the ABC Islands, but the surface observations are still not very conclusive. Radar images from Curacao also do not yet show a definite center. The system could make the transition to a tropical cyclone at any time. The initial motion continues to be rapidly westward, or 280/18 kt. There is not much change in the track forecast reasoning. The flow on the southern side of a large mid-tropospheric ridge to the north of the system should maintain a mainly westward track for most of the forecast period. The latest HCCA prediction shows a slightly more southern track after 1-2 days than before, likely due to the input from the ECMWF model. The new NHC forecast is not much different from the previous one, but is only a little farther south after 36 hours or so. Since the system is expected to remain in a low-shear environment, it is likely to strengthen after it moves away from the influence of the South American land mass. The system is expected to approach hurricane strength over the southwestern Caribbean, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for a portion of the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua. After some expected weakening from crossing Central America, the system should regain strength over the eastern North Pacific basin. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is expected to spread westward across the ABC Islands, portions of northern Venezuela, and northeast Columbia through Thursday morning, and reach Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday. Areas of flash flooding are expected, along with the potential for mudslides. 2. Winds to tropical storm force are expected over the ABC Islands for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the northwestern coast of Venezuela and the northeastern coast of Colombia tonight and early Thursday. 3. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua by late Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 11.6N 69.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 30/0600Z 11.8N 71.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 30/1800Z 12.0N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 11.7N 79.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 11.4N 82.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 11.1N 85.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 02/1800Z 11.2N 87.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 03/1800Z 12.3N 92.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 13.5N 98.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

For the first time in 2 weeks (6/14), I'm getting a big dousing from thunderstorms. Been getting them for the last 1.5 hours (since 1:20 PM) and will thus add up nicely. There is some street flooding. I'll provide the total later. Until today, most of my rain this month fell 6/8-14. I got a modest amount yesterday (0.25") bringing me to 4.35" MTD before today's dousing. Recent radar: Edit for Flood advisory issued 1/2 hour ago and also this report in the area of 2.48" in only one hour: 0312 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NNE VERNONBURG 31.98N 81.11W 06/29/2022 M2.48 INCH CHATHAM GA It looks like 2.5" has fallen IMBY, which brings me to 6.85" MTD (slightly above the longterm mean for all of June). This makes it the heaviest for any one day since way back on 11/6/21, when a similar amount fell. That amount is as much as I got in all of May.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 1100 PM AST Tue Jun 28 2022 Satellite imagery suggests that the disturbance is slowly getting better organized, with gradually increasing convective banding in the northern semicircle. However, surface observations from Trinidad, Tobago, and Grenada indicate that the system has not yet developed a closed circulation. Therefore, it still has the status of a potential tropical cyclone. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on the various surface observations. The disturbance is forecast to be in an environment of low shear and warm sea surface temperatures if it remains offshore, and this should lead the system to become a tropical cyclone in 12-24 hr. Strengthening is likely to be slow until the system moves away from the coast of South America after 36 h, at which time a faster development appears likely. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast and calls for the system to reach hurricane strength over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by the 72 h point. Later in the forecast period, the global models still suggest that the cyclone's low-level circulation will remain intact after crossing Central America and this is also shown by the NHC forecast. The system is moving a little faster with the initial motion now a somewhat uncertain 285/23 kt. A general westward motion near or just north of the coast of South America with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or two due to the presence of a low- to mid-level ridge to the north. A south of west motion may occur for a time while the system is over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track is lies close to the various consensus models. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is expected to spread westward across the Windward Islands and parts of northern Venezuela tonight through late Wednesday night. Localized flash flooding will be possible. 2. Winds to tropical-storm-force are expected over portions of the southern Windward Islands for a few more hours, over Islas Margarita Wednesday morning, and over the ABC Islands by Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the northeastern coast of Venezuela tonight and early Wednesday. 3. There is a greater-than-normal uncertainty in the system's forecast intensity once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea late Thursday and Friday, which will depend on how much it interacts with land from tonight through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 10.9N 62.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 29/1200Z 11.3N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 30/0000Z 11.8N 69.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 30/1200Z 12.3N 72.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 12.3N 76.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 01/1200Z 12.2N 80.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 12.0N 82.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 12.0N 87.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN 120H 04/0000Z 13.5N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Tuesday 6/28 was the first day in 1.5 months with it not colder than normal north of 80N:

Thanks, Mike. NHC 5 PM update: Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 500 PM AST Tue Jun 28 2022 The disturbance continues to generate strong convection with some banding features over the northern portion of the system. Nonetheless, observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft, including Tail Doppler radar wind data, along with imagery from the Barbados radar indicate that the system still lacks a closed circulation. Given that the disturbance should continue to move through a low-shear and moderately moist atmospheric environment for the next couple of days, some intensification is possible, and the system is expected to make the transition to a tropical cyclone on Wednesday. However interaction with land, including low-level inflow off the land mass of South America will likely limit intensification until the system reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea later this week. More significant strengthening, possibly into a hurricane, could occur over the latter region as shown in the official forecast. Late in the forecast period, the global models suggest that the cyclone's low-level circulation will remain intact after crossing Central America and this is also shown by the NHC forecast. Although the center position is not precise, the initial motion estimate continues to be quickly westward or about 280/21 kt. There is no significant change to the track forecast philosophy. A strong mid-tropospheric ridge is expected to be maintained to the north of the system through this week. Therefore a continued westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through the forecast period. The official forecast track remains about the same and closely follows the dynamical model consensus. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is expected across the Windward Islands, northeastern Venezuela, and the ABC Islands through Wednesday. Localized flash flooding will be possible. 2. Winds to tropical-storm-force are expected over portions of the southern Windward Islands tonight, over Islas Margarita Wednesday morning, and over the ABC Islands by Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the northeastern coast of Venezuela tonight and early Wednesday. 3. There is a greater-than-normal uncertainty in the system's forecast intensity once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea late Thursday and Friday, which will depend on how much it interacts with land from tonight through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 10.1N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 29/0600Z 10.8N 62.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 29/1800Z 11.4N 66.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 30/0600Z 11.9N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 12.1N 73.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 01/0600Z 12.1N 77.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 12.0N 80.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 12.0N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 03/1800Z 13.0N 90.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...OVER THE PACIFIC $$ Forecaster Pasch

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 57.5 West. The system is moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A westward or west- northwestward motion is expected through Thursday. On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over portions of the southern Windward Islands by tonight, and move over the southern Caribbean Sea or near the northern coast of Venezuela on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days if the disturbance remains over water. Conditions appear conducive for development if the disturbance remains over water, and it will likely become a tropical storm near the southern Windward Islands or while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high ...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). -------------- Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 1100 AM AST Tue Jun 28 2022 The system continues to produce vigorous deep convection and also exhibits some banding features. However, reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that there is no well-defined center of circulation at this time. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system again this afternoon. The system is expected to remain in a low-shear and moderately moist atmospheric environment for the next couple of days. However, interaction with land and fast forward motion will likely limit intensification until the system reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea later this week. More significant strengthening, possibly into a hurricane, could occur over the latter area. Although the center position is not precise, the initial motion estimate is kept the same, or 280/20 kt. A strong mid-tropospheric ridge is likely to remain anchored to the north of the system this week. Therefore a continued westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through the forecast period. The official forecast track is mostly unchanged and remains close to the corrected dynamical model consensus. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is expected across the Windward Islands and northeastern Venezuela tonight through Wednesday. Localized flash flooding will be possible. 2. Winds to tropical-storm-force are expected over portions of the southern Windward Islands tonight, over Islas Margarita Wednesday morning, and over the ABC Islands by Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the northeastern coast of Venezuela tonight and Wednesday evening. 3. There is higher-than-normal uncertainty in the system's forecast intensity once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea late Thursday and Friday, which will depend on how much it interacts with land from tonight through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 9.8N 57.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 29/0000Z 10.5N 60.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 29/1200Z 11.3N 64.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 30/0000Z 11.7N 68.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 12.1N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 01/0000Z 12.2N 75.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 12.1N 78.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 12.0N 84.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 120H 03/1200Z 12.5N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch

Additional good news is that it appears it will be moving fast enough to prevent a repeat of the Eta and Iota flooding disasters in Central America though that's not set in stone yet. The projected speed of movement is 2-3 times as fast as those two disasters.

While very important for at and near the coast especially and nothing to be taken lightly, I'm not quite as concerned about how strong it may get as I am about track and speed. That's because despite Eta and Iota both being of historical strength, you may recall that it was the incredibly heavy rainfall from slow movement as opposed to the winds and surge that lead to a large portion of the devastation and casualties. The river flooding was horrible. Then again, there likely is a good bit of correlation between how strong they get and how much moisture they can produce and retain for several days after landfall. The areas hit hardest by flooding rains included W Honduras and parts of Guatemala. At the time, Eta caused by far the worst flooding there since Mitch of 1998. And then came another with Iota! The number of refugees caused by this pair of disasters was immense! I just hope this one is moving at a good clip to minimize the potential number of hours of heavy rainfall.

Hope this doesn't end up rainwise another devastating Eta or Iota down there!

I'll pass lol. No more big heat today in this area despite continued sunshine. How much cooler than 24 hour ago? SAV 10, Hunter 14, Ft. Stewart 11, and SSI 11 all thanks to east winds off the ocean instead of the hot W to NW winds from inland of yesterday. So, it was quite a potent heat event here but thankfully it was very shortlived with no return of big heat in sight.

Alma, GA, had a new record high for the entire month of June at 105 and also ties the all-time record high set in August of 1995! Records go back to 1938. This was quite the historic day in SE Ga and nearby areas. I think the models did a pretty good job of warning us about this.

KSAV has so far at least tied the record high for today at 102. That is already enough to be the hottest in 3 years and the first 100+ in 3 years. That also ties the hottest all of the way back to 2001 and is the hottest in June since 2011. Edit: SSI had a new record high of 103!

1. At 1:15 PM, it hit 102.0 imby! 2. As of 1 PM, Macon is at 99 vs only 94 at Augusta. So, once again, Macon is coming in quite a bit hotter than Augusta. Edit: 102.7 IMBY 2:55 PM! Then it suddenly plunged 4 degrees to 98.7 at 3:01 PM! I think this is due to a slight increase in cloudcover as I don't think the wind direction shifted. I guess when it is that anomalously hot, any slight change can easily knock the temp down. I'm assuming our high so far of 102.7 won't be exceeded the rest of the day. Edit #2: 102 very close to the coast at St. Simons Island at 4 PM is a new record high. They can thank the NW wind totally opposing any chance for a seabreeze.

This means that the last two days vs the average of the last 15 years has gone from +240K to +140K. Recap vs avg. of last 15 years as of: 6/15/22: +70K 6/16/22: +120K 6/20/22: +240K *6/22/22: +140K *Edited due to typo

Despite similar conditions, including light winds and sunny skies, and almost identical normal highs, Macon's high on Wednesday was 105 while Augusta's high was "only" 99. Why? It is all about recent rainfall. Last June, for example, their temperatures were very similar, which is typical. Neither then had dry soils. What's happening now though? Macon rainfall since 5/25/22: a mere 0.23". So, they literally bake like in a desert. OTOH, Augusta rainfall since 5/25/22 has been a much higher 2.96". So, much less baking. Actually the big differential started on June 11th. Before that June 1-10 average highs were similar with Macon at 90.7 and Augusta at 90.6. There had not yet been enough time for large soil moisture differences to have developed. In contrast, look at June 11th-22nd average highs: Macon 99.1 and Augusta 94.1, a whopping 5.0 difference! Daily differences 6/11-22 Macon minus Augusta: 3, 6, 3, 8, 8, 6, 2, 4, 5, 6, 4, 6 I've found that local rainfall over the prior 3-4 weeks often has a big impact on summer high temperatures and this is a great example.

These numbers translate to another nice gain relative to 2007-2021 with 2022 now at +240K vs the mean of those years compared to +120K four days ago and +70K five days ago. Fwiw, the north of 80N temperatures averaged out continue to be slightly colder than the 1958-2002 mean, which can't hurt especially considering every of the last 40 days has been colder than that mean.

I see two SE GA circles representing new record lows, but I can't find any that even came that close to a record. I checked the main stations of SAV, Ft. Stewart, SSI, Alma and Waycross. So, this coolwx map doesn't look right.

I got no rain today but did get 0.20" yesterday. I'm now at 4.1" MTD, easily the wettest month since November of 2021. My last good dousing was 0.90" on 6/14. Most of my rainfall this month was received June 8-14 (3.3").

So, that is a nice gain vs the mean of those years to +120 vs the +70 of 24 hours earlier. It has been cooler than the 1958-2002 mean north of 80N averaged out on most days since late April making it the coolest during that period averaged out in many years. Furthermore, though subtle since variance in summer is small, the June 17th daily mean temperature is the coolest on June 17th since 2014. As long as the north of 80N mean temperature remains even just slightly cooler than the 1958-2002 mean, the chances of a sustained rapid pace of loss vs climo anytime soon are reduced somewhat though that's nowhere near a guarantee as temp. north of 80N is only one of the variables:

It reached the upper 90s in this area before thunderstorms moved in and cooled it back a lot. Hope to get a decent dousing this afternoon though any is better than nothing. Edit: It has turned out to be a really nice dousing. Still raining. 2 very closeby CTG strikes caused power to blink. Still more nearby lightning strikes. Ended up with 0.90", which brings me to a nice 3.90" MTD and already the wettest month since November!

The extended portion of the GFS has gotten ridiculous with its numerous runs having hurricane threats over the last few weeks. It has for a number of years had a bias toward too strong activity in the Gulf and W Caribbean, especially during early and late season.

MBY got a very beneficial ~0.90" of rainfall yesterday evening (June 8th) from heavy thunderstorms, which included at least one close CTG strike. This was easily the heaviest rainfall here in 2.5 weeks and puts me near 1.5" MTD. I had irrigated my lawn a few days ago for the first time in a couple of weeks after a rather dry period. Yesterday's nice rain means I can hold off further irrigation at least through the weekend and then reassess early next week. Edit regarding the next day (June 9th): Getting slammed now with a heavy thunderstorm. I ended up with a big win with ~1.5" late afternoon getting me to 3" MTD, which suddenly gets me to wetter than normal MTD.

Chuck, The following subsurface animation suggests that the upper 100 m or so and especially the area east of 140W is cooler vs the TAO/TRITON based source that you posted. Thoughts about which is more accurate?

Ed, A thread starter can go to the first post and then choose the edit option (by clicking on the "..." on the upper right side). Once in edit, the title can be changed. Also, tags can be added or changed.