GaWx

Latest Euro Weeklies qpf for Feb 10-16: 3rd shade of green is 2-3 times normal (~2-4”). Hopefully there won’t be bad flooding. I could sure use some of that extra qpf down here though even here I’m just into shade 2 (would mean ~1.2” here).

Latest Euro Weeklies Feb 10-16 qpf: 3rd shade of green means 2-3 times normal for that period! I could use that down here.

It doesn’t count unless Euro AI also has same one.

Yep, flooding is a big concern. Here’s 12Z EPS mean:

Boston has had 13.9” of snow this winter to date (low vs their climo). I know, boo hoo lol. If this EPS were to verify, they’d add a whopping 22” over just the next 13 days or 1.5 times their amount to date!

I don’t know how to describe this other than calling this pure insanity: is this real? Of course the NW trend could mean much lower, especially close to the coast, would verify. So, for now I’m not buying this much will actually fall:

Not a forecasting post but I’m putting this Jan recap here due to higher traffic and since it is fairly quiet for now: SE cold lovers like myself should feel fortunate that Jan was as cold as it was as the cold anomaly there was as strong as anywhere on the globe. I’ll reiterate that the Euro Weeklies did a great job forecasting the SE US to have the coldest on the globe. This shows -2 to -4C (likely mainly -2 to -3C or -3.6 to -5.4F) vs 1951-80 base. To convert to comparison to 1991-2020 base, one can probably add ~1-1.5F making the anomaly ~-4.5 to -7F anomaly for many. One has to wonder when the next cold month will be:

The 12Z Euro has been stuck at 105 for an hour. Edit: now it is coming in. Light snow N 1-2 tiers of NC counties Mon morning (2/10). ZR far NW NC 2/10-1.

0Z Euro AI: even warmer with significantly further N 0C 850 line; no snow most of NC now (just some in far NW NC) so warmer trend not over; still some ZR N NC into VA

Record high today at KSAV of 83 and 2nd one since Sat.

0Z EPS 10:1 snow:

0Z Euro: benign for SE

Good news with lowered icestorm threat per 0Z Icon due to it being warmer than 12Z. Also, 0Z CMC a little warmer than its 12Z. Less ZR/IP.

Even on this warmer AI run, RDU appears to still get ~2-3” of snow before change to IP and then ZR. But yes it’s changing to more of an icestorm on the Euro AI. And trend northward of 850s may not be done since this was warmest and storm is still near a week out.

Euro AI 850 mb from 18Z 24 hrs ago: Asheville -4C; RDU -2C and in middle of large 15-18” snowfall area that had extended down to all of NE GA/NW SC Euro AI 850 mb from new 18Z: snow line much further N than 24 hrs ago and further N than prior run (furthest N yet): Asheville +1C; RDU +4C with snow line then at NC/VA border (last run -1C):

Indeed. But what you’re describing is possible much of the rest of the year. That gets old fast imo. I like different seasons, especially our precious short winters. I enjoy wearing corduroys, jackets, and hats and not having the worry about sweating all of the time.

There’s much more to winter than cold rain and snow/sleet. What about normal winter daytime highs of, say, 50s with sunshine/beautiful Canadian blue skies? There are many dry days typically in winter. I’d much rather have days like those than days in the 80s.

Several NYC forum members are pissed about Mid Atlantic and especially Deep South snow so far this winter because they’re currently below climo.

Yeah, on second thought, that may be insulting to the DGEX. I don’t know that the DGEX often forecasted 12-18” over such a large part of the SE while no other model was close. I do think that the Euro AI’s 850 mb temps for this storm should be taken with a huge grain of salt. They appear to me to have been too cold on several runs. It also did terribly at the surface for the Jan 10-11 storm. It had warm S winds well up into the SE while there was a low in the N Gulf. That turned out to be wrong, which was predictable based on similar storms’ old wx maps of the past.

The Euro AI shouldn’t be taken seriously as it has become the DGEX weenie model of our time. One weenie run after another often on its own with very heavy sometimes record breaking snow. All it does is to up expectations way higher than reality in many cases. But since it is circulating, here’s 12Z Euro-AI: not nearly as comical as yesterday’s 18Z, which gave 15-17” in all of NE GA/NW SC, but still very likely way overdone with it further S than 6Z

Today’s Euro Weeklies for Feb into early Mar reversed back warmer again with Feb now back up to +5 to +6 in much of the SE. This compares to warmest of +4 in the SE a couple of runs ago. The warmest run was last Fri, when some of SE was +7. So, it isn’t back to as warm as that. DCA is back up to +2.5 for Feb overall vs NN yesterday and +4 in Fri’s run. So, though warmer today’s isn’t back to as warm as Fri’s run. The weeks 2/17-23, 2/24-3/2, and 3/3-9 are significantly warmer than they were yesterday.

Today’s Euro Weeklies for Feb into early Mar reversed back warmer again with Feb now back up to +5 to +6 in much of the SE. The warmest run was last Fri, when some of SE was +7. So, it isn’t quite back to that warm. The coolest run was Sun’s, which was +4 for the warmest in the SE.

QBO (30 mb) Jan: +12.1 Dec was +12.7 Nov was +13.8 (peak) https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

12Z EPS snow (10:1):

12Z Euro ZR: