GaWx

This 2nd Danny band is a doozy here in SAV, Ga, with lots of CTG lightning, some very closeby, and heavy rains. I hope I don't lose power!

Center aiming for Hilton Head or just north. Thunderstorms again here in SAV now with this 2nd band. Skies are dark. Winds are light.

2PM PDT vs 24 hours ago: Portland 112 (+3)(warmed 2 last hour) SeaTac 103 (+5) (warmed 4 last hour) Pendleton 109 (+2)(no change last hour) Walla Walls 107 (-2)(warmed 1 last hour) Spokane 101 (0)(warmed 2 last hour) Yakima 105 (+1)(warmed 2 last hour)

Per radar and trends, we (SAV) look to get the heaviest rainfall from a couple of bands on the west/SW side of Danny starting shortly and going for a couple of hours on and off. I wouldn't want to be driving then as tropical bands like this are often very heavy. It looks to be coming at a bad time, drive home time. So far, only occasional very light rain has fallen with light winds but is getting dark now.

1PM PDT vs 24 hours ago: Portland 110 (+6)(warmed 5 last hour) SeaTac 99 (+3) (cooled 3 last hour) Pendleton 109 (+3)(warmed 4 last hour Walla Walls 106 (0)(warmed 1 last hour) Spokane 99 (+1)(warmed 1 last hour) Yakima 103 (+1)(cooled 1 last hour)

Noon PDT vs 24 hours ago: Portland 105 (+7) SeaTac 102 (+8) Pendleton 105 (-1) Walla Walla 105 (+2) Spokane 98 (+3) Yakima 104 (+3)

Here's something weird. After all of the 6 stations in Wash/Ore either dropped 1-3 F or were steady the previous hour, they all rose 1-2 F this most recent hour (5 PM PDT)! The hottest hourly of the day was reached at both Portland (112) and Yakima (107).

B.C. heat wave shatters Canadian record for highest temperature ever recorded | CBC News This also says new Canada record of 46.1C but could it also be wrong? A little good news. The 4 PM Washington and Oregon readings that I've been following were all either the same or cooler than 3 PM.

1 PM PDT vs 24 hours ago: Portland 104 (+11) SeaTac 96 (+4) Pendleton 106 (+5) Walla Walls 106 (+5) Spokane 98 (+5) Yakima 102 (+2)

As of Noon PDT vs 24 hours earlier, this is how much hotter it is: Portland 7 F SeaTac 6 F Pendleton 6 F Walla Walla 5 F Spokane 4 F Yakima (airport) 2 F

My feeling is that if they’re going to investigate this that it be today rather than tomorrow afternoon, when it would already be nearly onshore.

Looking at 10AM PDT readings vs 24 hours ago: Portland, Walla Walla, Pendleton, and Yakima are 6 F warmer. Spokane area is 4-5 F warmer. SeaTac is 3 F warmer. Keep in mind that June records were already obliterated in Portland, Seattle-Tac, and other locations yesterday!

@donsutherland1and others, Do I think AGW is contributing to this? I strongly feel that way. The globe is ~2F warmer than it was just since the 1970s and ~3 warmer than 1900 if I’m not mistaken. And this is the fourth extreme heatwave just this month to go along with Desert SW, N Plains, and Russia as Don pointed out. But is the likely contribution to this more than, say, 2-3F? That’s impossible to know. One thing that is an additional major contributor is the widespread drought in the area (see below), likely caused largely by La Niña, combining with the very anomalous Pacific NW ridge. Do y’all think the AGW contribution to this heatwave is likely more than ~2-3F? Do you think that the widespread W US drought is a bigger contributor? I'm strongly suspecting it is based on the physics of air heating up more over drier soils due to their much lower specific heat levels. Would we be looking at a historic heatwave had there been no drought? I have a lot of doubt about that and also suspect that there wouldn't be as strong a ridge there without the drought. Also, note that the 3 big US heatwaves have all occurred in widespread drought regions as per the map below:

It appears you're indirectly referring to UHI, which I think is a legitimate significant factor for Phoenix in addition to AGW as I mentioned. But keep in mind that UHI mainly affects minimums. The increase in average maximums is likely mainly related to AGW imo and Don mainly emphasized maximums.

@donsutherland1, excellent analyses from one of the best and most objective analyzers of data here. As much as I like your posts ITT, I think they would have been even better if you had mentioned the very likely additional significant role of UHI on mainly Phoenix’s minimum temperatures. I assume you’d agree that UHI has contributed much more to higher minimums than to higher maximums and is I believe the main reason why minimums have increased by a significantly higher amount vs the increase for maximums. So, I feel that higher minimums are due to a combo of UHI and AGW, with each having significant effects. For this reason, in order to get the best feel for AGW’s effects independent of UHI, I tend to focus only on maximums as I believe that the vast majority of those increases has been due to AGW. To be fair, you have focused much more on those.

Hi Don, I respect you immensely and therefore feel the need to tell you that it looks like there’s a major problem with the Yakutat temperature sensor. Please check out this link to hourlies for the last few days: https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/PAYA.html a t e Time (akst) Wind (mph) Vis. (mi.) Weather Sky Cond. Temperature (ºF) Relative Humidity Wind Chill (°F) Heat Index (°F) Pressure Precipitation (in.) Air Dwpt 6 hour altimeter (in) sea level (mb) 1 hr 3 hr 6 hr Max. Min. 17 17:53 E 5 10.00 Overcast BKN037 OVC055 36 29 76% 32 NA 29.33 993.3 17 16:53 NE 7 10.00 A Few Clouds FEW029 35 28 76% 29 NA 29.34 993.6 17 15:53 E 3 10.00 Mostly Cloudy SCT030 SCT040 BKN050 36 30 79% NA NA 29.35 993.8 17 14:53 E 9 10.00 Overcast OVC036 36 30 79% 29 NA 29.36 994.2 17 13:53 E 8 10.00 Light Rain OVC040 36 30 79% 30 NA 29.37 994.6 17 12:53 E 6 10.00 Light Rain FEW027 BKN040 OVC055 35 32 89% 30 NA 29.37 994.5 17 11:53 Calm 10.00 Light Rain BKN038 OVC045 NA NA NA NA NA 29.36 994.4 17 10:53 Calm 10.00 Mostly Cloudy SCT046 BKN055 NA NA NA NA NA 29.35 994.1 17 09:53 NE 3 10.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN050 NA NA NA NA NA 29.35 994.1 17 08:53 Calm 10.00 Partly Cloudy SCT085 NA NA NA NA NA 29.33 993.4 17 07:53 Calm 10.00 Partly Cloudy SCT120 NA NA NA NA NA 29.33 993.4 17 06:53 Calm 10.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN110 NA NA NA NA NA 29.34 993.7 17 05:53 Calm 10.00 Partly Cloudy SCT110 NA NA NA NA NA 29.36 994.4 17 04:53 Calm 10.00 Partly Cloudy SCT100 NA NA NA NA NA 29.38 995.1 17 03:53 NE 5 10.00 A Few Clouds FEW038 NA NA NA -11 NA 29.41 996.1 17 02:53 E 3 10.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN044 NA NA NA NA NA 29.44 997.1 0.01 17 01:53 NE 5 10.00 Overcast SCT034 OVC042 NA NA NA -11 NA 29.47 998.1 17 00:53 E 5 10.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN028 NA NA NA -11 NA 29.50 999.1 16 23:53 NE 7 10.00 Overcast BKN026 OVC033 NA NA NA -13 NA 29.54 1000.5 0.01 0.01 16 22:53 NE 8 10.00 Overcast BKN023 BKN036 OVC044 NA NA NA -14 NA 29.57 1001.5 16 21:53 E 9 10.00 Overcast OVC021 NA NA NA -15 NA 29.58 1001.8 16 20:53 E 8 10.00 Overcast BKN020 BKN025 OVC033 NA NA NA -14 NA 29.60 1002.5 0.07 16 19:53 NE 7 10.00 Mostly Cloudy FEW018 SCT025 BKN120 NA NA NA -13 NA 29.61 1002.9 16 18:53 NE 7 10.00 Overcast FEW021 BKN055 OVC110 NA NA NA -13 NA 29.62 1003.2 16 17:53 E 6 10.00 Overcast SCT018 OVC120 NA NA NA -12 NA 29.64 1003.9 0.01 0.07 16 16:53 Calm 5.00 Light Rain BKN017 OVC023 NA NA NA NA NA 29.65 1004.2 0.04 16 15:53 E 7 10.00 Overcast OVC011 NA NA NA -13 NA 29.66 1004.6 0.02 16 14:53 E 5 4.00 Rain BKN009 OVC013 NA NA NA -11 NA 29.67 1004.9 0.08 0.24 16 13:53 E 10 8.00 Light Rain OVC008 NA NA NA -16 NA 29.66 1004.6 16 12:53 E 8 10.00 Overcast OVC006 NA NA NA -14 NA 29.66 1004.6 0.07 16 11:53 E 9 3.00 Light Rain FEW008 BKN013 OVC023 48 38 68% 44 NA 29.64 1003.7 0.06 0.09 16 10:53 E 9 3.00 Light Rain OVC012 52 37 57% NA NA 29.63 1003.3 0.03 16 09:53 E 8 3.00 Light Rain Fog/Mist OVC016 37 36 96% 31 NA 29.61 1002.7 16 08:53 E 10 10.00 Light Rain OVC033 37 35 57 37 93% 30 NA 29.59 1002.1 0.04 0.13 16 07:53 E 8 9.00 Light Rain OVC027 37 35 93% 31 NA 29.58 1001.8 0.04 16 06:53 E 5 10.00 Light Rain OVC026 48 35 61% 46 NA 29.58 1001.8 0.02 16 05:53 SE 3 10.00 Light Rain OVC030 51 33 50% NA NA 29.58 1001.5 0.01 0.03 16 04:53 SE 7 10.00 Light Rain OVC034 55 32 42% NA NA 29.57 1001.3 0.01 16 03:53 SE 7 10.00 Light Rain OVC034 55 34 45% NA NA 29.55 1000.7 0.01 16 02:53 E 9 10.00 Light Rain OVC048 56 33 61 42 42% NA NA 29.52 999.8 16 01:53 E 5 10.00 Overcast OVC046 50 28 43% 48 NA 29.53 1000.0 16 00:53 NE 6 10.00 Light Rain OVC050 55 27 34% NA NA 29.53 1000.0 15 23:53 E 5 10.00 Overcast OVC050 53 27 37% NA NA 29.54 1000.4 15 22:53 E 6 10.00 Overcast OVC060 53 25 34% NA NA 29.55 1000.7 15 21:53 E 7 10.00 Overcast OVC060 49 25 39% 46 NA 29.56 1001.0 15 20:53 NE 12 10.00 Overcast BKN070 OVC090 51 24 60 36 35% NA NA 29.58 1001.6 15 19:53 E 6 10.00 Overcast FEW055 BKN070 OVC100 58 26 29% NA NA 29.61 1002.8 15 18:53 E 6 10.00 Overcast OVC055 51 27 39% NA NA 29.64 1003.6 15 17:53 E 5 10.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN055 49 28 44% 47 NA 29.65 1004.2 15 16:53 SE 5 10.00 Overcast OVC055 54 29 38% NA NA 29.68 1005.0 15 15:53 E 3 10.00 Mostly Cloudy FEW050 BKN060 BKN075 37 30 76% NA NA 29.70 1005.9 15 14:53 Calm 10.00 Partly Cloudy SCT046 40 29 56 40 65% NA NA 29.73 1006.7 15 13:53 E 6 10.00 Overcast FEW049 OVC065 49 30 48% 46 NA 29.76 1007.8 15 12:53 NE 8 10.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN035 BKN046 43 30 60% 38 NA 29.78 1008.5 15 11:53 NE 8 10.00 Overcast SCT033 BKN040 OVC047 52 31 45% NA NA 29.81 1009.4 15 10:53 E 9 10.00 Overcast BKN040 OVC048 56 29 36% NA NA 29.83 1010.0 15 09:53 E 6 10.00 Light Rain OVC041 54 29 38% NA NA 29.84 1010.4 15 08:53 E 6 10.00 Overcast FEW033 BKN046 OVC060 51 30 54 41 45% NA NA 29.84 1010.4 15 07:53 E 6 10.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN048 BKN065 51 30 45% NA NA 29.84 1010.6 15 06:53 NE 8 10.00 Overcast OVC048 46 30 54% 42 NA 29.86 1011.0 15 05:53 NE 9 10.00 Overcast OVC046 47 31 54% 43 NA 29.87 1011.6 15 04:53 NE 7 10.00 Overcast OVC044 47 31 54% 44 NA 29.89 1012.1 15 03:53 NE 6 10.00 Overcast OVC043 47 31 54% 44 NA 29.90 1012.5 15 02:53 NE 7 10.00 Overcast OVC046 49 31 51 38 50% 46 NA 29.91 1012.7 15 01:53 E 5 10.00 Overcast OVC048 43 31 63% 40 NA 29.92 1013.3 15 00:53 NE 6 10.00 Overcast OVC048 46 31 56% 43 NA 29.93 1013.6 14 23:53 E 5 10.00 Overcast OVC047 46 32 58% 44 NA 29.94 1013.7 14 22:53 E 3 10.00 Overcast FEW024 BKN039 OVC049 46 32 58% NA NA 29.94 1013.7 14 21:53 E 6 10.00 Overcast FEW026 SCT037 OVC047 50 32 50% 48 NA 29.94 1013.7 14 20:53 E 3 10.00 Overcast OVC034 50 32 55 39 50% NA NA 29.94 1013.9 14 19:53 E 3 10.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN120 55 32 42% NA NA 29.94 1014.0 14 18:53 NE 6 10.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN038 46 34 63% 43 NA 29.95 1014.3 D a t e Time (akst) Wind (mph) Vis. (mi.) Weather Sky Cond. Air Dwpt Max. Min. Relative Humidity Wind Chill (°F) Heat Index (°F) altimeter (in Don, here are just 2 examples of hourlies that look bogus: 1. 16:53 on 12/15 is at 54 F, a rise of a whopping 17 in one hour from the 37 the previous hour while overcast?? That can’t be. And the winds didn’t change much. Light E to light SE. So, no major warm front/airmass change it would appear. 2. At 9:53 on Dec 16th it was 37 and it then rose a whopping 15 in one hour under light rain to 52 with continued light E winds. I may post more later about the problems with this station when time permits.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/whats-behind-the-floods-in-texas-and-heat-in-india/ So, no mention of the current El Niño being a factor at all? Even the alarmists have to admit that this is a gross misrepresentation!

ORH, But what about the fact that 1950-2000 was by a good margin the most active 50 years for solar in at least 350 years? I still wonder about that possibly having contributed a significant % of the 1950-2000 warming. Possible? I'm admittedly still waiting for a cooldown to finally commence in the wake of the recent very slow cycle.

http://dailycaller.com/2015/05/22/former-un-lead-author-global-warming-caused-by-natural-variations-in-climate/ "'This suggests that while some portion of the temperature change observed in the 20th century was probably caused by greenhouse gases, there is a strong likelihood that the major portion was due to natural variations,' Lloyd wrote in his study." Any comments? Anything to this? This is from a former lead author of a UN intergovernmental panel on climate change. I personally still question how much could have been due to the most active 50 year period solar wise in 350+ years during 1950-2000 though I'm still waiting for evidence of a cooldown to finally get going in the wake of the slow most recent solar cycle.

I agree with about a 2018 deadline to finally see some cooling impact from a solar minimum. That's been near my put up or shut up time for a few years in this forum.

This late 19th century and early 20th century cooling during that solar minimum with what could be some lag then getting started combined with the idea that the 2nd half of the 20th century had the most active sun of any 50 year period in at least 350 years (which coincided well with the strong warming during that period) has been telling me to at least be open-minded about the potential amount of cooling effect from the likely upcoming grand solar minimum. However, the longer we go over just the next few years without at least a sign of any cooldown, the less likely in my mind that we'll ever get much cooling from any grand solar minimum. It is getting close to put up or shut up time IMO as regards the sun.

CA drought being blamed on CC. Any comments? http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/at-the-edge/2015/04/14/climate-change-and-the-california-drought

How do you explain that GA hasn't had a single H hit nearly as bad as the multiple major hits throughout the 1800's in over 100 years and not near the frequency? I could just as easily say there's some significance to that but I won't because there's no way to know the reason. It could just as easily be due mainly to randomness.

Tam, Thanks for this data. To be fair (and assuming a near steady background avg. temp.), the # of records of any kind will be biased higher in earlier periods. Example: An all-time record low or high on any date at most any station in, say 1915, was much easier to attain than it would be in 2015 simply because the record is now 100 years longer.

I meant to add some more things about ENSO. 1884-5 was at/near a low end weak Nino, which has a number of times been associated with the E US as a whole having very cold winters. 1887-8 had similar ENSO. The two warmest ATL winters of all time, 1879-80/1889-90, were during mod/very strong La Nina's. ATL's winters have been warmest on average during La Nina. My point is that regardless of AGW, the sun and other factors, the natural ENSO often has ruled and still rules the roost quite often when looking at individual winters. I assume you agree. I still wonder about the overall degree of extremes of US wx in the late 1800's. I don't know how they couldn't have been way up there.