beavis1729

At ORD, the normal high for today is still only 71, and at MKE it’s only 66. Highs at MKE yesterday and today were only 54 and 53, respectively. I know you’re further west...but the great lakes influence doesn’t really go away here until early June, at which point average highs at ORD are more in line with areas in the Midwest away from the lakes. Just last year, ORD had the following high temps in May: 53 on May 11th 52 on May 12th 57 on May 20th 54 on May 21st And in May 2018, even with the hot end of the month, ORD had highs of 52, 50, 55 on May 11th, 12th, and 20th respectively. The point is that May days can be quite chilly around here, compared to what many “expect”.

Yeah...partly because many of the daily records (especially lows) during this cold spell at ORD and RFD happened to be colder outliers compared to the surrounding days. And, it didn’t help that it was mostly sunny on Saturday (in May, it’s almost impossible to have cold daytime temps with the sun out)...and that the Sunday precip happened to fall during peak heating, precluding any measurable snowfall amounts despite the extremely cold airmass. In other words, bad timing. If there were “airmass records”, I imagine ORD would have set some new records...

Current temps: ORD: 37 Fairbanks AK: 79

Mixing with snow now here in the heavier bursts, temp 37. Crazy for 3PM on May 10.

I can definitely vouch for this airmass, even on the far west end of the arctic lobe here in the NW suburbs of Chicago. Temps were only in the low 40s yesterday afternoon with nearly full sunshine. Didn’t quite set a record low max, but it’s nearly impossible to be that cold in peak heating around here on May 8th unless complete cloud cover and/or heavy rain is occurring. Temps that low with an early August sun angle speaks to the insanely cold airmass for the time of year. Normal high is 68. A few spots in N IL dropped to the mid 20s this morning, probably close to all time late season cold...but there aren’t many long lasting PORs besides ORD and RFD, which only dropped to 31 and 29 respectively due to UHI influences.

Lows in the LOT forecast area. While impressive, no daily records were broken. Some places, like UGN, may have been close to records for “coldest so late in the season”...but difficult to find reliable and long-term data besides Chicago and Rockford. A bit too much wind for the typical radiators, and the core of the cold was pulling out overnight, as winds switched to SW just before sunrise. UGN 25 DPA 26 ARR 27 JOT 27 DKB 28 RFD 29 PWK 30 ORD 31

Waukegan (UGN) is only 38 degrees at 12 noon, with a WC of 30. Midnight high was 41. ORD had a midnight high of 45, and is currently 43 with a WC of 34. So, the record low max of 42 in 1960 will hold. In WI, the coldest low temp I found this morning was 21 in Minocqua. In Rhinelander at 12 noon, it's 29/8, WC 20. Dropped to 24 there this morning, just missing the May 8th record low of 22 set in 2017 and 1929. Normal low is 38.

If you squint very very carefully, the 18z 3km NAM appears to have a lake-effect snow signal in NE IL on Friday morning. Maybe a "lake-effect flurry" signal...

LOT URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Chicago IL 1125 AM CDT Thu May 7 2020 ILZ003>006-008-010>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002- 010-011-019-080030- /O.CON.KLOT.FZ.A.0001.200509T0500Z-200509T1300Z/ Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage- La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford- Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Northern Will- Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton- Including the cities of Rockford, Belvidere, Crystal Lake, Algonquin, McHenry, Woodstock, Waukegan, Buffalo Grove, Mundelein, Gurnee, Rochelle, Oregon, Byron, Dixon, DeKalb, Sycamore, Aurora, Elgin, Naperville, Wheaton, Downers Grove, Lombard, Carol Stream, Ottawa, Streator, La Salle, Mendota, Marseilles, Oswego, Yorkville, Plano, Morris, Coal City, Minooka, Kankakee, Bourbonnais, Bradley, Pontiac, Dwight, Fairbury, Watseka, Gilman, Paxton, Gibson City, Evanston, Des Plaines, Schaumburg, Palatine, Northbrook, Chicago, Cicero, Oak Lawn, Oak Park, La Grange, Calumet City, Oak Forest, Lemont, Orland Park, Park Forest, Joliet, Bolingbrook, Plainfield, Mokena, Channahon, Manhattan, Wilmington, Crete, Peotone, Beecher, Gary, Hammond, Merrillville, Portage, Valparaiso, Chesterton, Roselawn, Kentland, Morocco, Rensselaer, DeMotte, Fowler, and Oxford 1125 AM CDT Thu May 7 2020 /1225 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020/ ...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as the upper 20s. * WHERE...Portions of northwest Indiana and central, east central, north central and northeast Illinois. * WHEN...From late Friday night through Saturday morning. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above- ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

I've been trying to find the record low temp for the month of May by state...but it's harder to find than I thought. Any good websites for this?

LOT A remarkably cold/deep mid-upper low will be located near Ontario-Quebec border late Thursday night into Friday morning. A short-wave wrapping around this ULL will bring a reinforcing surge of anomalously cold air aloft into Friday morning. ECMWF has been consistent in signal for showers driven by this wave and land/lake convergence. Not all guidance has picked up on this yet, but with consistency of ECMWF, added in slight chance PoPs for northeast Illinois and far northwest Indiana. With very strong May sun and extremely cold air aloft with low freezing levels, steep low level lapse rates could yield graupel mix if not outright snow showers in spots should the showers materialize. Outside of this, the main story will be the temperatures likely staying in the 40s in many areas with brisk northerly winds. In addition, northerly wind driven waves and record lake levels could bring some risk for lakeshore flooding to at least portions of IL/IN shore. The unseasonably cold daytime temps followed by diminishing winds, clearing skies Friday night and 850 mb temps bottoming out as cold as -6 to -9 Celsius (among coldest 850 mb temps on record in May at ILX and DVN) could set the stage for a rare May freeze (<32F) everywhere but downtown Chicago and a hard freeze (<=28F) for some locations. The last May freeze at O`Hare, Chicago`s climate site was all the way back on May 3, 2004 when the low temperature was 30 degrees. With the growing season now well underway after the warm conditions this past weekend, this could be a damaging freeze if it occurs. Should trends hold for temperatures Friday night into Sat. AM, we`ll likely need to issue a Freeze Watch at some point over the next few days. The deep trough responsible for Friday-Sat AM cold will exit east on Saturday, allowing for moderation back into the 50s for highs (still well below normal) along with plenty of sun. Unfortunately, model and ensemble guidance is coming into better agreement for a clipper-like system to impact the area on Mother`s Day (Sunday). There`s uncertainty at timing of precip. onset, with ECMWF on slower side Saturday night, but felt signal is strong enough for rain on Sunday that PoPs were bumped up to likely. The exact track of the associated low pressure system will determine whether temperatures will be merely well below normal (period of time in "warm" sector) or in the 40s (low pressure track south of us). Added in some slight chance thunder mention to account for the brief period in warm sector scenario and fairly stout short-wave with steep lapse rates). Another shot of unseasonably cold air aloft (several degrees below 0C at 850 mb) could follow Sunday`s clipper system and depending on how long it takes to exit the region, hate to say it but couldn`t rule out some wet snow Sunday night before precip ends.

Part of the balance that needs to be considered is that, while people can reasonably debate whether the government should have mandated business closing and other actions as much as they did, it's unacceptable (to me) that the government didn't provide more reassurance and income for people while this is occurring. For example, just say "we will give you 75% of your annual 2019 W-2/1099 income every month until the end of 2020, up to a cap of X...with no questions asked". This would have been much more efficient than all of the complicated first-come first-served PPP/loan programs/stimulus checks that are happening now, and most importantly, it would've given people reassurance. Also, it would stop pitting people against each other. When a country has a crisis, people need to come together, not be arguing. Capitalism doesn't work well during a crisis, as the inherent desire to be competitive with other people is a very bad thing during a crisis. This is a horrendous faliure in leadership from this administration. Sure, there would probably be inflation and other unintended economic issues down the road as a result of this...but what is the alternative? People would have much more incentive to care about public health and social distance if they didn't need to worry about their paycheck and survival. This is what's causing all of the problems, imo.

LOT discussion below. Even if ORD doesn't break the daily record low of 27 on Saturday 5/9, a low of 30 would still make it the 3rd coldest temp on record so late in the season. Later Thursday night or Friday morning, strong cold front is progged to sweep across the area and allow some unseasonably cold air to spill south into region. There remain some modest differences amongst the medium range guidance in the details, but the general idea of an extremely anomalous lobe of cold air moving into the Great Lakes is a consistent theme with all the model guidance. Low and mid level thermal fields are progged to be at or just below recorded mins for this time of year, with record or near record low 500mb heights as well. All of this would seem to support the idea of both daytime and nighttime temps getting into the territory of records. The NBM guidance again resides in the upper echelon of the spread of guidance and have made some downward adjustments to both Friday`s high temps and Friday night`s low temps. Worth noting, that the normally very reliable ECMWF has highs in the mid 40s Friday afternoon with lows in the mid-upper 20s and a hard freeze Friday night. Despite the ECMWF`s run-to-run consistency and stellar track record with forecasting such anomalous events, have only trended temps in that direction, but not all the way there just yet. Certainly seeing growing support for a freeze for most of the CWA Friday night outside of the urban heat island, with the threat for a hard freeze (<= 28F) plausible.

For Chicago, here are the late-season measurable snow benchmarks to beat: - Latest 0.5+" event: May 8-9, 1923 (0.6") - Latest 0.1+" event: May 11, 1966 (0.2") I think ORD will see a Trace of snowfall over the next week, but nothing measurable. Maybe I'll be surprised.

Re-posted from other thread... 12z GFS has 510 thicknesses over Bo's house on 5/8 (hour 102). In N IL, it looks like the coldest days will be 5/8 and 5/9. As of now, it looks like the sun will be out at least part of these days...in which case daytime temps will probably be mild even if the thickness levels are anomalously low. The sun angle is equivalent to early August. If Friday night can clear out with either strong cold advection or radiational cooling, some places in N IL may drop below freezing on Saturday morning 5/9. That's probably the best chance for a record to be broken...although the record low is 27 in both Rockford and Chicago. Rockford 5/8: Record low max 41 in 1960; record low 30 in 1947 5/9: Record low max 41 in 1960; record low 27 in 1966 Chicago 5/8: Record low max 42 in 1960; record low 29 in 1983 5/9: Record low max 42 in 1966; record low 27 in 1983

12z GFS has 510 thicknesses over Bo's house on 5/8 (hour 102). In N IL, it looks like the coldest days will be 5/8 and 5/9. As of now, it looks like the sun will be out at least part of these days...in which case daytime temps will probably be mild even if the thickness levels are anomalously low. The sun angle is equivalent to early August. If Friday night can clear out with either strong cold advection or radiational cooling, some places in N IL may drop below freezing on Saturday morning 5/9. That's probably the best chance for a record to be broken...although the record low is 27 in both Rockford and Chicago. Rockford 5/8: Record low max 41 in 1960; record low 30 in 1947 5/9: Record low max 41 in 1960; record low 27 in 1966 Chicago 5/8: Record low max 42 in 1960; record low 29 in 1983 5/9: Record low max 42 in 1966; record low 27 in 1983

Yeah, crazy. And, at 216 hours verbatim, there are 516 thicknesses in NYC. They struggle to get that even in January...

Wow, that's ridiculous. I never knew about that event. More recently, there was a decent snowfall in parts of northern WI on 5/17/1997.

Here is the AWSSI index for Winter 2019-20, produced by the Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC). As expected, the past winter in Chicago was categorized as "mild", which is the weakest of the 5 categories (mild, moderate, average, severe, extreme). Current winter map here, along with an explanation of the AWSSI at the bottom of the page: https://mrcc.illinois.edu/research/awssi/indexAwssi.jsp Details/graphs for specific cities here: https://mrcc.illinois.edu/AWSSI/chart.html

Just saw in the SNE forum that Boston only hit 62 for a high temp in all of April, which is the lowest April max monthly temp on record. And, the highest temp in Boston for JFMA 2020 occurred in January. That’s crazy.

Looks hot in Las Vegas early next week. It could be the first time in recorded history to hit 100 in April.

Bingo - I hear you. And, I think it’s precisely this uncertainty that is driving the overwhelming government response. Not saying it’s right or wrong... To me, the only solution is to enable widespread testing with almost immediate results...so that people can self-isolate as needed, and everyone else can get back to relative normal, even if masks are still required out of an abundance of caution.

It’s due to increased testing. There could be some other ancillary reasons, but increased testing is the simplest explanation. Occam’s Razor.

Unfortunately, pretty much all sporting events, concerts, etc. are doing this...whether it’s StubHub or Ticketmaster or the venues themselves. It’s extremely annoying, even if there may be reasons for it. Just issue the refunds for all events, if they didn’t occur on the scheduled date. Doesn’t matter if the event has not technically been canceled. Same issue with airline ticket refunds. I have 8 tickets around the US that were previously booked for my family and I for this spring and summer. I canceled all of them, and we can use the money as a credit for future flights by YE 2021...but I would rather have the money back as a refund so that I can make the decision. This is especially frustrating because airlines took a lot of the government stimulus money. Just do what’s best for the customer, and be done with it. Very simple.

Dews are near or slightly below 0F in northern MN...pretty remarkable for April 21st. INL dropped to 14F this morning.