IWXwx

7 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I think most people here do have some standards for how winter should be, though the standards aren't in the same league as yours.  And when standards aren't met, it's more like "oh well, better luck next year" instead of being as emotionally invested as you are.

imo, it's just not worth getting so invested in something that you can't control.  Unless you're making your own snow, you can't control how much snow there is in your backyard.  And even then, what about everywhere else around you?

Having high standards isn't a bad thing.  I do.  I just reserve that for things that I can control.  For example, I love lifting weights.  There are many mental and physical health benefits that not only serve me well now as I close in on 40, but will hopefully pay off all the way through old age.  I love the journey.  I love trying to get better.  Perfect linear progress doesn't happen forever, but you put the work in to be the best version of yourself.  

"For example, I love lifting weights.  There are many mental and physical health benefits that not only serve me well now as I close in on 40, but will hopefully pay off all the way through old age.  I love the journey.  I love trying to get better.  Perfect linear progress doesn't happen forever, but you put the work in to be the best version of yourself."

I never worked out in my adult life, but had physically demanding jobs which helped keep me in shape. However, after getting a desk job with Emergency Management a few years ago, I kind of let myself go. So a little over a year ago, I began lifting and doing cardio. As I just turned 65, I now feel better than I did since I was in my 30's, and that even includes a couple of months last year where I battled cancer with chemo and radiation.

Anyway, I'm looking forward to our I-69 semi-tipping winds this afternoon.

I haven't seen any posts from Powerball in the past couple days. I wonder if he has power.

10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Is there a better chance of seeing the balloon or getting a 6" snowstorm this winter?

 

 

Chinese balloon descending?

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/suspected-chinese-balloon-us/index.html

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

NYC recorded their first measurable snow of the season yesterday at Central Park... 0.4"

That's a crappy way to break a futility run.

2 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

Baroclinic zone moves to Canada. Ride the torch.

It looks like cromartie picked up about 6". Kind of interesting that he hasn't posted on this thread recently about how it's going to bust and that a torch is just around the corner. Here is a representation of how his yard looks:

20 minutes ago, Baum said:

"AS WHAT APPEARED SEVERAL DAYS AGO COULD BE A  
CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS DECIDEDLY LESS SO NOW." as taps plays in the background.

Suppression = Depression

Our peak depth was 6.7" at around 2 PM (EST), but have already lost a couple of inches to melting/compaction with the marginal temps, kind of a letdown. Was cool to see periods of +sn though.

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

Not to be a killjoy for those in the main axis across portions of IL/IN/OH/MI, but I wouldn't put too much stock in this snow maps showing a wide axis of 6-12" amounts.

Most foreign guidance is a drier/less snowy than American guidance. We've seen that battle many times in the past, and know how it often plays out. Would lean towards a solid corridor of 2-5" to 4-7" in the main axis, locally higher.

On 1/23/2023 at 11:59 AM, IWXwx said:

Me kicked back watching model run after model run having FWA in the sweet spot for max snowfall potential, while the ORD crowd laments a possible miss south and the Ohio group fretting about mixing issues

Me when the track takes a last minute 75 mile shift northwest or southeast

I'm realistically calling for 5.5" here.

Thanks for giving me confidence in my call.

15 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Some serious cold in Canada on the 18z GFS around Day 8.  It's impressive enough to see -40 temps, but there's a decent area of -45 to -50 showing up...with even one pixel in NE Alberta at -55.

Of course this is far out and 2m temps aren't exactly modeled well in general...but you don't see a map like this very often.  The extremely rare 468 thickness contour shows up, and it covers a fairly respectable area.  Even 474 is extremely impressive.  Hopefully we'll get to track a real-deal arctic outbreak soon...but of course the question is whether this arctic air will drop south.  At a minimum, seems like a nice temp gradient will set up.  If a big storm results, it should be able to pull the cold air down.

 

I'm a winter lover and also enjoy following any kind of anomalous weather, but as I get older (just turned 65), I just want that type of cold to keep its a$$ up in Canada. 

I'm riding Malacka11's favorite model at 10:1.

Me kicked back watching model run after model run having FWA in the sweet spot for max snowfall potential, while the ORD crowd laments a possible miss south and the Ohio group fretting about mixing issues

Me when the track takes a last minute 75 mile shift northwest or southeast

I'm realistically calling for 5.5" here.

No. 1 event of the year here. Still spitting flurries, but just measured 2.6" on the ol' snowboard. Kinda depressing that we are in late January and that's the deepest snow we've seen.

11 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Sitting here in the bullseye of this storm 3 days out reminds of last year's GHD storm that had 15"-20" forecast only for it to turn to crap with in 12 hours.  Granted this one is a bit less complicated, I'm still keeping my guard up.  

 

I will say my coffee this morning probably tastes better than those sipping in Chicago land, lol, JK.  

TOL and us down here in FWAland are rowing the same boat. Sitting under the bullseye 72 hours out, but not at all confident that it is the final solution.

Top 3 event here and maybe #1, as it is still snowing. We had 2.2" on 11/12 and 2.5" on 12/22.

1.9" at my 7AM CoCoRaHS reading, so it might approach the magical 2.5" mark.

8 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

The winter equivalent of getting the severe season in September. 

Might as well get used to it - See the Chicago Weather Records thread.

1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

DAB our my way. Northern cutoff will be brutal. 

 

At this point I pulling for futility, this winter has been hot garbage 

48 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Seconded

3 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

 

Several recent ORD Februarys  are insulted by those posts

Thought I'd move this over here so as to not clutter up the storm thread.  Eight of the top 15 February Chicago snow totals have occurred in the past 15 years. Looks like quite a trend to me.

1.  2011  29"

3. 2015  26.8"

6. 2016  22.5"

8. 2008 21.8"

9. 2021  21.6"

T 11. 2018  20.3"

T 11.  2007 20.3"

15.  2014  19.5"

1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

DAB our my way. Northern cutoff will be brutal. 

 

At this point I pulling for futility, this winter has been hot garbage 

35 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Seconded

Several recent ORD Februarys  are insulted by those posts

19 hours ago, KokomoWX said:

12z Euro coming in hot for a parade of storms.  

19 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

You and me both know unless this maps 12 hours out its gonna be a kitchen sink Lucy pulls the football event for us lol.  It is pretty to look at though 

Call it intuition, but I think we'll score in this area (North Central/Northeast IN) even if it comes as multiple minor events over the next 10 days or so. Anyone down toward I 70 might as well post the Eurythmics.

The Watch just went up for the eastern couple of tiers of counties in IN and the whole western half of Ohio.

6 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

So who's gonna start the next thread? Let's get that squared away now.

I vote for cromartie

Thanks for the input. It really brings to light some of the factors that goes into issuing products. It will be interesting to see how it affects forecast wording when advisories finally drop.

Sorry to completely derail the thread. Now back to your regularly scheduled short/medium range discussion which looks to be more interesting next week.

19 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

Blue bird day. Sun angle rapidly increasing and felt so warm. Worked outside all afternoon in t shirt. Grass still green and we are only 45 days until meteorological spring. This is a wimpy winter for sure.

I also see green when I look out my back door. I got tired of dragging the push mower out to hit that little spot in my back yard. (I use the rider on the rest of the yard.) Artificial grass FTW.

12 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

I got to stay inside and avoid the WC's all day Fri, and finally forced to venture out on Saturday when to my surprise, conditions were still actually kinda dicey in the W burbs. The "it's too bad" comment was more about getting WWA level snow, which took crazy winds carrying it into/onto the roadways to make for such bad conditions. During my 2 decades under the GRR scheme, I was always arguing for a more "conditions based" headline decision. I had so many WWA's that qualified as Warnings it was a joke. @Harry said would never happen from that office (unless it is some long-duration LES event like this November featured). That office seems to think LES is some super scary version of snow that makes roadways more slippery/difficult/dangerous when the opposite is generally true, lol.

First of all, I know this is way off-topic for this thread, but who's gonna put me in AMwx jail?

That's interesting because at IWX, they are really promoting using "impact-based messaging" and I assumed that this is the mantra NWS wide.  Maybe part of the problem is rigidity of following the criteria for meeting a particular product.

For example, at IWX the criteria for heavy snow is 3-5" for a WWA (or 2-4" at the forecaster's discretion), and greater than 6" in 12 hours or 8" in 24 hours for a Warning. In conversations I've had with their WCM, I got the impression that in the past, they may have gotten their wrist slapped for "overwarning" an event. For example, upgrading to a Winter Storm Warning for 5" of snow, even though there were exacerbating conditions such as blowing snow or glaze ice underneath the snowpack.

It seems that with impact-based forecasting, they've loosened up some and given the individual forecaster some leeway in issuing products. Just my point of view, maybe some NWS mets can chime in.

Congrats ORD/DTW.

Cold rain with wraparound mood flakes for FWA, per usual.