IWXwx

We had a nice convective squall roll through late morning here, with visibilities dropping to a few hundred feet and thundersnow reported to my southeast.  Picked up a quick inch. Since then, we have been getting remnants off of the lake. A primary band looks to be forming, located from just east of SBN to FWA. Those areas could get a quick couple of inches before it migrates.

I'm in agreement with those above.  If it's not going to be a doozy, I'll take the mild and dry. Maybe we should start a Geezer thread for those of us whose are looking for extreme weather, but don't root on every shortwave to become armegeddon.  Leave that to the younger weenies.

7 hours ago, OHweather said:

I'm not a Lake Michigan lake effect expert...I'm legitimately curious to see if the band can become focused enough to produce 1"+ per hour rates for a length of time or if the stronger winds will lead to a more general spray of moderate snow. The instability and synoptic support are robust, so if a focused band can develop rates of 1-2" per hour would result and the warnings would work out. However, some models struggle to focus a band in the face of the 40 knot low-level flow. Somewhat "marginal" surface temperatures and daytime timing of the heaviest snow could limit accumulation efficiency if it's more of a general spray of snow, so while there'd be poor conditions and some travel impacts accumulations would struggle to verify a warning. It feels like nasty travel conditions are likely to carry well inland in squalls, so the expansion of the advisory seems like a good move...I just don't have a great feel on how widespread any 6"+ totals would be. 

It may have been decided to make a more blanket coverage of the worst condition areas, even if it doesn't technically meet warning criteria. The alternative would be issuing an Advisory, then having to issue long-lived, multiple Snow Squall Warnings for the affected area.  However, their morning disco doesn't give a clue as to why they went this route.

48 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Would be truly grateful if this verified. NWS thinks a general 2-4” is on the table for areas downwind of the lake on Monday/Monday night. Experience says someone under a dominant band will get more.

With the forecast trajectories, I'm liking where I sit for some LES/Enhancement down this way. An inch or two would be nice in this otherwise "normal" December.

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

And clippers 

What are these clippers you speak of?

12 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

Skipped accuweather completely. I started with wright-weather bulletin board then Eastern and Harry’s now defunct board and now this is pretty much all that there is. 

Same here: Wright Weather, Eastern, American

31 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

I received a text from another member of Eastern with the link to the new board.  I had been banned from Eastern just prior to its collapse.  Not sure for what anymore but it was probably deserved. 

I remember you over at eastern, but also can’t remember what happened. I do remember flipping out when I went to the site one morning and it was gone. I don’t remember how I found my way here with the eastern crew, but was glad I found it.

Lots of mood flakes mixed with rain at times today, no accumulation.

3 hours ago, Powerball said:

I wouldn't necessarily say Internet forums are declining.

I'd say it's a combination of:

*Millennials getting older, busy with their careers and have settled down with kids/partners. Even during the hey dey, the weather boards were mostly a teen and early 20-something ordeal, a time when you have virtually no responsibilities, good health and are full of adrenaline. Gen Z and Alpha are also smaller in size than Millennials were (thus a smaller audience of young weather weenies as a whole).

*Society has become a lot more, socially, politically and economically polarized since the 2000s and early 2010s. So much of the community is now bifurcated into our own little echo chambers.

You left out us boomers   Seriously, I think you're right, especially about by being bifurcated into their echo chambers

With posters using the Autumn Banter Thread in December, I figured I'd better make a new El Nino winter thread. It may be a popular place for some.          

IND posted on their Facebook page why it sucks to live along the 40th Parallel

2 hours ago, wxman_ind said:

The outlook for December for Indiana calls for above normal temperatures. If that holds, Indy could set its record for the warmest year ever. We are currently running ahead of 2012!

Kind of crazy to think about that. I guess stronger drought in '12 made it seem warmer than this year.

4 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

In years when there was ample snow by 11/15, I never rode my sleds until after dark. Partly out of courtesy, partly not to piss-off someone holding a high-powered weapon, lol. 

@weatherbo My late cousin had a hunting cottage near L'anse. I never made the trek all the way up there to hunt so I didn't realize it was bucks only up there. Should be open season here in the burbs lol. Last year I had a 10 point and a 6 point run in front of my car just a 1/4 mile from here. Surprising amount of wildlife here in western Wayne County. A lot of waterways and greenways run between endless housing developments. One is on the south side of Plymouth. There's a huge Tom turkey that stakes out his claim to S Main and Ann Arbor Rd in front of a Chrysler dealership. Causes traffic snarls all the time. 

Coincidentally, a met friend of mine hit a big buck last night on his way into work less than a half a mile from IWX. The office has a Fish and Wildlife area directly behind it, and they often see deer and turkeys around the office. You can see where it took an antler to the windshield. He said it drives fine, but is most likely totaled. Poor Audi A6 Prestige.

4 hours ago, weatherbo said:

12th-27th down there and 15th-30th here in Michigan.

Would love to hunt some corn-fed Indiana Doe.  Here in the snowbelt counties of the UP, antlerless is off the table.  They're exclusively for the coyot's and wolves.

I remember as a young man my neighbor giving me some venison from a buck he shot in Michigan (I believe with a bow). The meat tasted like a pine tree!  I wouldn't eat deer meat for many years after that. It wasn't until I had some grain fed Hoosier deer that I changed my opinion about deer meat. I still don't hunt them, but like it when all of the hunters leave my fish alone. lol

Here's something that you don't see everyday, above normal chances for precipitation in the 8-14 day outlook for the whole Untied States (including Alaska and Hawaii) except for the southern tip of Texas.  Oh, and and everyone east of the Rockies will be basking in above normal temps too.

While we're at it, let's add a happy little palm tree to bo's yard to help him prepare for the oncoming onslaught of climate change.

(Sorry, but you're dealing with a retired guy who obviously has too much time on his hands.)

16 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

the warming is only going to accelerate, palms up to the up ez

7 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Humorous how the point forecast for here Tuesday goes back and forth between snow showers on one shift, or partly sunny on the next, as the forecasters disagree.  Some are riding the GFS, and others give more credence to the Euro/RGEM.  Think it's pretty stupid to not have any POPS though given the potent vort and even the near miss of the GFS would still likely warrant a POP.  The forecasters who are leaving it bone dry are going to bomb.

I've noticed the same thing happening occasionally at IWX, although they try to do a good job at keeping the forecast smooth. I also realize that sometimes they have to compromise their forecast to blend with neighboring CWA's.

21 hours ago, iluvsnow said:

I don't know about Van Wert...but Xenia may argue with you on the tornado capitol of Ohio.

Xenia obviously takes the honors for the most powerful tornado, but I am willing to bet that Van Wert leads in numbers. I will have to look it up when I have time.

14 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Euro says trick or treaters will be greeted with snow showers Tuesday evening around this area.  

Same out here. We may even see some lake effect down this way.

After my niece complained on Facebook about the cold temps predicted for Halloween, I suggested that she dress the kiddos up as Ralphie's brother in A Christmas Story, so at least they will be warm.

16 hours ago, Powerball said:

Bless his heart...

It appears that you are acclimated to living in the south. Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that the southern expression for dumbass?

11 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

0.11" overnight.  Up to 2.83" for the month.

We've flip flopped. 0.23" in the past 36 days here.

Never gets old

13 minutes ago, madwx said:

97/83/123

wow

6 hours ago, SolidIcewx said:

I caught my first glimpse of a spotted lantern fly in east Columbus. Noticed honeydew left over on some riverbank grapes. Flew up onto a Ailanthus tree so I could not kill it. Only seen one. Has anyone else in the Great Lakes area spotted these assholes at all? Hearing reports around the Toledo area

Not the Great lakes, but a tree at my friends' convenience store here in Huntington had an infestation.

1 hour ago, Powerball said:

While nothing severe, lightning tracker and radar does indicate this been a pretty stormy morning / early afternoon for parts of the city proper and the NE suburbs.

Selfridge has apparently picked up over 1.5" of rain.

Yeah, the Tigers/Cubs are in a rain delay. It looks like the NE suburbs are getting a second round of lighter rain, but may miss downtown.