IWXwx

I scrolled back my GRLevel 3

24 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Warning for here, gonna be fun.

There is some broad rotation. IWX is getting reports of a possible tornado touchdown south of Angola in Stueben Co. EMA is reporting damage in that area.They are getting a survey team together.

EDIT: When I say they, I mean IWX

20 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

One surprise is Chicago having a max temp of 97 compared to 96 for St. Louis. I'd have to think St. Louis might end up winning by the time summer ends.

Most likely.  I believe that St. Louis averages about three 100° a year.

lol at the new 12z 3km NAM. Actual radar vs. the model''s simulated radar. Must have been some kind of initialization problem.

...and yet another t-storm warning for my county today with no severe weather, just a nice summer's night thunderstorm. At least my spotters weren't playing whack-a-mole like we did with the pulse storms this afternoon.

I'm thinking 4 warned storms in a 7 hour period with no severe has to be some kind of record.

I seriously don't know why you take them seriously. If you a more accurate forecast, just get it from here. There are some seriously good mets/hobbyists that post here.

IWX issued a head-scratching 3 t-storm warnings for my county in a half an hours' time for some pulse storms earlier this afternoon. So of course, I had to deploy spotters just so they could report no hail and no winds reported over 20 mph.

14 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

T-storm watch until 9pm for SE IN/extreme N KY/most of Ohio.

I hope you guys score. We have had four days of slight risk or better in 2018 in NE IN and have nothing to show for it. Three out of the four times, I questioned SPC for including our area when guidance didn't look great to begin with.

I may be mistaken, but I'm not seeing the parameters for severe in the FWA area this evening. The CAMS look much better for NW IN/ORD than over here. Can anyone tell me what SPC is seeing that I'm missing to have the slight risk extend into our area?

I was freaking out until I saw that it is the CFS (Can't Forecast S@#t).

LOL at this MI TV weather guy getting upset with his cohosts over the Year Without A Spring.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/trending-now-videowall/michigan-weatherman-freaks-out-on-complaining-co-hosts/g1dgsxzje6gw3q_rayjiyzlwib_ynmxv

I found these one year ago today. This year, the woods floor is still brown, it's 32° and snowing at 2 PM. Major suckage.

19 hours ago, IWXwx said:

I just clicked through the GFS and other than the next couple of days and again on day 9, it depicts below to well below normal temps right on through 384.

2018, the year without a Spring.

19 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

Long range GFS shows more zonal flow and warming after next week. I don’t see anymore ridicously cold (30’s for highs) on GFS (other models - do still show it - 12z GEFS says 20’s for highs next Monday - STOP.) CIPS saying we’ll jump from this to above normal by June - May being the transitional month. 

 

At this point, though - if we started May out with 70’s and 80’s (not likely to happen) - I would still personally call 2018 - the year without spring in modern history. 

Yes, I was going to point out that the latest run doesn't depict the double digit negative anomalies after Sunday-Tuesday like it had in previous runs, although it still shows an average of below normal temps for the next two weeks.

I just clicked through the GFS and other than the next couple of days and again on day 9, it depicts below to well below normal temps right on through 384.

2018, the year without a Spring.

I know that the meaning behind the point-n-click forecast, but I always have chuckle when I see this. I have wonder what Joe Public thinks when he sees it.

Following a long, boring winter for this part of the Midwest, I might as well start off the Spring complaint thread by moaning about getting fringed by SNOW this morning and it looks like it will happen again this weekend. So winter kicks sand in my face by fringing me with storms to my SOUTH.... in MARCH.

Spring, oh Spring, where art thou?

54 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Hello, all.  Just got back this Monday Aug. 28 from a week's vacation in the Ohio River valley that started with a view of the total eclipse from Harrisburg Illinois that was beyond awesome.  Sorry for no pictures.   I had expected the moon to cover the sun and show the corona but what I didn't expect and fully amazed me was the wall of darkness that came in from the west at totality.  It was like an approaching t storm but in clear sky.  Got about as dark as a full moon night and street lights came on.  Lasted about two minutes.  By far the most amazing thing I have seen in an astronomical sense.    And no, IWX, I may be older but not THAT OLD!  Ha! Ha!

Hey! Good to hear from you! A few of us were worried about you since you haven't been on here for awhile. I'm glad that you had a good eclipse experience and vacation. Thanks for being able to take a little friendly ribbing about age. This coming from a guy who's no spring chicken compared to most of the posters here.

I'll be starting a thread about 2024 soon. lol

17 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I was reading a story about Indianapolis being in the totality zone in 2024, and it mentioned how the last total solar eclipse there was on September 14, 1205.  That is an unusually long time to wait as most of the bigger cities in the region have had 2 or 3 totals since then.  Turns out that eclipse in 1205 was total in only a portion of the city so it got me searching for the last time all of Indianapolis had a total eclipse (as 2024 will be).  The date?  May 15, 0831.  That is just astonishing.

Wow, that is amazing. I believe Indystorm took pictures (cave paintings) of that one.

I haven't checked closely, but I believe we'll be on the northern edge up here for 2024.

8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Is that from Accuweather or something?  

TWC

1 hour ago, Trent said:

It seems they're going much more conservative with headlines for Cuyahoga County this year. It almost feels like they are doing headlines that are "county average" versus "maximum snowfall in the county" this year. It certainly makes it difficult for a county with over a million people that has drastically different weather by the mile.

I'm optimistic here along the lakeshore, but I've quickly learned that no set-up is ever a lock for snow here. I think accurately forecasting lake effect snow accumulations for areas outside the typical high elevation primary belt is a much more difficult task than forecasting for a place like Chardon. 

It's too bad they can't issue polygon warnings like they do for severe weather. After all, why treat winter weather differently? It may not be needed for synoptic snows, but LES is often so geographically specific, it would be warranted.

EDIT: I just saw OHweather recommend the same thing in his last sentence. It only makes sense.

Well, PCW airport ASOS has reported some slightly weird things since it came online (less than a year ago?).  Maybe that -14 temperature wasn't one of the weird ones.  I don't remember this ASOS being there before 2014.

 

http://www.portclintonairport.com/

A similar situation happened at Benton Harbor is SW MI. They stayed clear and hit -15°. That temp was verified by IWX. Surrounding stations didn't bottom out due to cloud cover.

Hindsight being 20/20, I would make two new requirments for the rebuilt homes. A safe room (underground) and a working SAME radio. I don't know how many times my SAME Radio alerted us to potental storms.

We have an ordinance that all new mobile homes and modular (prebuilt) homes must have SAME radios installed. However, I suspect that a majority of people never turn them on or turn them off after the first time they hear the "annoying" warning tone.

It's also frustrating when the warnings you put out are ignored. I had a situation once where we had a really nasty storm coming into Fort Huachuca via the South Range. We were getting extreme winds and the lightning frequency was outrageous. I was on the radio telling everyone to take cover and cease outdoor activities. One bright (?) Butter Bar (2nd Lt) decided that the middle of a raging thunderstorm was a great time to line his crew up for inspection outside of their Comm Vans with antennas deployed-12 of them wound up in the hospital due to the lightning strike. In 1964, I and my Duty Forecaster followed a hook all of the way into the Base keeping the Command Post continuously advised. The next day with 6 confirmed tornadoes in his Missile Complex and damage on Base, the Wing Commander was enraged by the fact that not only had he not been informed of what was happening but that the Command Post never issued or passed on any warnings to the people in the complex including contractors in a house trailer parked near a silo that was missed by 50 yards.

Steve

In 2003, a funnel cloud was spotted north of Hartford City, IN. I was on the south side of town and headed north to try try to intercept the storm as a part of Skywarn/EMA. As I drove through town, not just a few, but dozens and dozens of people were standing outside along the street and on their porches trying to catch a glimpse of the the funnel as the sirens were blaring.

The sirens are supposed to warn people to take cover. Instead, I felt like I was in a parade with all of people along the street. We work very hard to save lives and protect property, but sometimes it gets frustrating.

I am currently showing 27 tornado warnings on my GR. Wow.