IWXwx

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1156 AM EST THU FEB 7 2019

INC083-071715-
/O.CON.KIND.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190207T1715Z/
Knox IN-
1156 AM EST THU FEB 7 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 PM EST FOR CENTRAL
KNOX COUNTY...
    
At 1155 AM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Vincennes, moving northeast at 50 mph.

37 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

DVN is up to 0.71" of precip so far.  Very impressive.  My station gauge is frozen up and showing 0.00" for the day.  Guessing at least half an inch of precip has fallen.

I've had my Davis freeze like that a few times. I have two CoCoRaHS  gauges as a manual backup. Sounds like a mess out there. It must be neat to experience a zr thunderstorm.

RECORD EVENT REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
240 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2019

...RECORD HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AT FORT WAYNE...

A RECORD HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 40 DEGREES WAS SET AT FORT 
WAYNE YESTERDAY, 4 FEB 2019. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 38 IN 1928.

3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Lol yeah I kind of like sleet when it's not at the expense of missing out on snow.  If the snow/sleet line were closer I'd definitely be rooting against sleet in that case.

I understand about sleet being frustrating when you are so close to a major thump, but like you said if it's not close, I'd chose sleet over ice any day. However, I have had some my best meltdowns here during multiple sleet storms. Well, maybe not as bad a meltdown as Beavis, but you know what I mean. All of that being said, the north shift is very pleasing to me, as looks like most of the ice stays north of the Hoosier state.

Matt Leach the TV met in Ft. Wayne (and a poster here) posted the temp maps for next Thursday evening from the Euro and GFS on his Facebook page. Looks like pretty good model agreement to me!!!!

5 hours ago, IWXwx said:

SBN crushed their old record with a -20°. The old record was -11° in 1936.

Not bad considering their position in relation to the Lake.

5 hours ago, Chicago WX said:

Wait until Hoosier sees the bolded red. 

  

Thought I'd move it over here. I decided to see what did happen in '36 in Indiana.

1 hour ago, Jackstraw said:

Don't get many minus 20/30 wind chills in GA? This is the other side of winter around here.  IMO 1/14 was worse.  Not quite as cold but it set in for a couple weeks without a warm up.  That was my first real taste of the brutal cold after moving up from SC and it hurt!  OTOH you should be used to this clipper coming, a quick 3-6 inches followed by 50-60 and possible thunderstorms lol.

lol

8 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

12z NAMs slashing QPF/snow here, so gonna make a call of 1-3" for IKK. Final. Will cap off a pretty decent clipper train for here though.  

I just noticed those 12zs. I'm still going with an overperforming, fluff factored 3.2" here.

SBN crushed their old record with a -20°. The old record was -11° in 1936.

Not bad considering their position in relation to the Lake.

35 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Thinking of 3 inches of snow here just ne of Indpls.

NAM is giving you over 2" at 10:1. With temps in single digits at onset, you should fluff up to at least 4". Of course, by the time you get out to measure it Friday morning compaction may already be occurring as temps moderate.  Whatever the amount, a nice little caboose to the clipper train.

2 hours ago, madwx said:

 

DVN mentioning sun angle on January 30th.  So Sun Angle Season is officially upon us!

I think that we should declare Groundhog Day as the official start of Sun Angle Season.

40 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

I'm big doggin' for 5-6 here even though it'll be gone in 48 hours lol.

You might get that at 40 or 45:1.

I'll go with 3.2"

7 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

First time I've seen this this late in the winter.  Just saw 2 huge flocks of about 200 cranes each flying south at about 3k feet.  A new species Procrastenarious Craneous lol? 

The wife and I saw a couple of flocks of robins last Saturday, including a dead one on the road. I have never seen robins here in January in my 61 years. I don't know what to make of it.

What the actual heck?!

FWA beat their record low today (1/30) by 5°, -13° and may go lower before midnight. Old record -8° 1966. Tomorrow (1/31) should at least tie at -18° (1963).

The predicted high for Monday (2/4)? 56° (and may go higher). 110 year old record 58° (1909)

My sinuses are going to explode.

47 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Looking like we see some light snow accumulation tonight here as well. This kind of came out of nowhere. Dtx still just has 40% chance of snow. 

Yeah, I've been bombarded with texts about NWS calling for 2-4" tonight. I checked the 3km NAM and sure enough, a strip of 0.20" right through our area. At 20:1, that's 4". I'll take it. Heck, the HRRR is giving us 0.30". If that verifies, it's warning level snow for us. I love clipper surprises.

We got 1.1" on 0.03" early this morning.

2 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

IND calling for rain and high near 40 Monday.   Wagons north!

You just can't buy a break down there. I had to laugh at my point forecast this evening. It's as clear as mud:

3 hours ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

I was only 9 at the time so makes sense I don’t remember that lol

I was 49 at the time and I don't remember that, not because I was too young, but because I'm too old. They say the memory is the first thing to go. (j/k, I really do remember that). Meanwhile, back to the train, I hope to get an inch out of this to go with the half inch I got behind the front last night.

11 minutes ago, buckeye said:

blech,

looks like euro backed off of the frontal wave, (at least for our area), looks like it goes further east.   Not really surprised though.

As far as the brutal cold outbreak, I'd rather have it with a snow cover....if we're gonna do it, might as well go all out.   Bare ground and -10 when it could have been a snowcover and -20 kinda sucks lol.   

Understandable, but personally, any number with a minus in front of it sucks. I'm not a heat miser, but am a not-freeze-my-arse-off-miser. I'd rather have 25° and a solid snow cover.

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

Longevity of the most severe cold has definitely trended back to a significant degree.

Yeah, I saw that, was just being a smarta$$. I honestly would not want the intrusion to be as prolonged as was earlier depicted. Just brutal and life-threatening.

12 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Right...and it means that the furthest south of all models is now tracking the low over the IL/WI state line.  Not good trends for the Chicago area.  In addition to missing out on the heaviest QPF axis, the ratios will be much worse, since temps won't be as cold.  If trends continue, Chicago will be lucky to see 2" out of this, with temps warming into the 30s after the snowfall.  

What used to be a clipper parade has now turned into essentially one meaningful clipper...and now this one clipper may not even produce...and now the arctic outbreak next week is being muted. Not a good day for winter weather lovers here.  Better in MN/WI. While these shifts are not too unusual 3-6 days out (and perhaps we're guilty of getting too excited too far out), it's still frustrating.

Yeah, GFS only shows -23F instead of -28F at ORD Wednesday morning

16 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

Finished with -8 

-6.5 here

Wow, the NAM is really juiced (what else is new), depicting a stripe of 1.5"+ QPF from SPI to FWA.

Picked up a surprising 5.8" as of 7 PM and still coming down. Tough measuring though. Pretty cool because 24 hrs ago we were in the east end of the sucker hole. Most county roads are drifting shut now.

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

GFS and NAM 2m from 60-84 hrs.  Without a high to the north, you'd normally lean more on the warmer solutions but it will be interesting to watch.  The NAM struggles sometimes with WAA over snowpack.

Also something to keep in mind... coming out of the deep cold, it could be one of those scenarios that roads/sidewalks are icing even when 2m is a little above freezing.

IND already mentioned this. They sounded concerned about some substantial icing for awhile