Hi

7 minutes ago, Stebo said:

#standardelninomapwithzeroskillinvolved

I saw that at work today and thought the exact same thing, even the text mentioned that other factors are involved, i.e. the MJO, AO, etc. But it still a "hey it's a nino, so lets throw that map out there!" map.

2 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

I’ll also be chiming in here as well from just south of Buffalo,NY. Average about 115” a season. 

Welcome. You must be only about 10-12 miles northeast of BuffaloWeather. It will be interesting to see snowfall differences with LES bands.

Dang, we may need to start a LES thread already:

THEREAFTER SOME BRIEF RELAXATION EXPECTED IN MEAN TROUGHING THROUGH 
ERN CANADA BEFORE BUCKLING STRONGLY LATE PERIOD AS A FORMIDABLE 
SYSTEM DEVELOPS INVOF JAMES BAY. THIS IN TURN LOOKS TO SHUNT AN EVEN 
COLDER AIRMASS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES SIGNALING THE FIRST LAKE 
EFFECT DERIVED PRECIP EVENT OF THE SEASON LATE SAT INTO SUN. 

It looks like Northern MN is in for a few inches of the good stuff tomorrow/tomorrow night. Good agreement with all of the guidance.

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Still on the 12z run. 

Even getting flakes mixed in would be noteworthy especially coming off the warmth

lol

It didn't work yesterday. T-Storm Watch and a warned storm to our west. We ended up with two garden variety storms.

74/74 here today. Unbelievable Td for October 7th. Swamp a$$

Just starting to see some color here

2 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

Might be a decent roll cloud with the line from the looks on radar.  

Here is the leading edge of the line as it rolled into Huntington County. We were on this particular part of the line because it was the section that didn't look outflow dominated. Nothing severe, but pretty cool nonetheless.

81/72 here. Feels like July

Just beginning to see some hints of color south of Ft. Wayne.

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Only in the mid 50s here now, which is over 30 degrees colder than this time yesterday.

I guess I didn't realize the temp contrast on that side of the boundary. I had to go to IND today for some training and it was in the low to mid 70's all day and felt really humid. It was also a cool drive down there this morning as I was following a t-storm south at daylight. It really kind of a neat lightning show.

I see that RFD hit 35°. That's a little cool for my liking in September.

4 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Severe Weather reports with Tuesday storms

POSTED 5:15 PM, SEPTEMBER 25, 2018, BY PAUL DAILEY

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Between 4 and 5PM CDT the Following reports were received…

Sycamore (Kane Co)…60 mph winds
Roscoe (Winnebago Co)…trees down
Sublette…Lee Co…60 mph winds
Rochelle…Lee Co…Tree damage
Oregon and Polo…tree damage
Huntley, Algonquin, and Lake-In-The-Hills…Multiple trees and wires down
North of Huntley…70 mph winds     according to WGN

The 60 MPH report from Sycamore is Joe's (Chicago Storm).

We're back online just in time for the autumnal equinox.  The sudden change of temps is a good way to begin astronomical fall. I thought that I'd lost you guys (and gals)! I actually looked at a couple of other wx forums to see if I could locate anyone.

I've been anxiously awaiting something to track.

The Canadian depicts multiple simultaneous assaults on the North American coast.

8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This is some top shelf September weather.

I would agree if we could ever get rid of this pesky bank of stratocumulus.

Due to the strong onshore flow, Lake Michigan's water temps took a dive along its southern shores, probably making for some chilly lake breezes this week. Michigan City:

3 minutes ago, weathernerd said:

Yesterday about 4pm on the west side of Indy we had about a 10min span of very gusty winds, combined with the already saturated ground it was enough force to fell a 40ft ash tree on my property. Barely missed landing on my neighbors house and car. 

Yikes! We had a fairly stout ENE winds up here yesterday afternoon, but I also noticed a short period of VERY gusty winds late yesterday for short period of time.

We are busy lamenting the flash and river flooding that has predominated the weather scene in the Midwest lately. However, if the GFS has a clue, Flo doing a sit-n-spin over the Mid Atlantic coast will make our rainfall look like a proverbial drop in the bucket.

It's hard to believe that soon bo and Will will be reporting flakes flying.

1 hour ago, Chinook said:

I would suppose this is an actual picture of a storm over Chicago on Monday. If so, this is amazing. It looks almost like some of those hoax pictures where somebody took an image of a supercell wall cloud on the Plains and superimposed it over a different picture of a beach in Florida and said it was Hurricane Katrina, or something like that.

Fake or not, from the location from which it was shot, it was probably taken by Alek.

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

I think it might depend on the office.  One of the Ohio offices did it for a tornado a couple years ago.

1 hour ago, hlcater said:

Those are super common in the high plains. Where there's clearly very strong tornadoes that hit very little or nothing at all. If there's video of it or a visual confirmation, but no damage can be found, a lot of times they'll just go EFU.

It makes sense. NWS has to concur if video evidence is there, but with no damage off of which to make a wind speed estimation, an EFU is reasonable.

Rant warning-

The whole visual confirmation thing is a sensitive subject to me. A few years ago, we had a storm roll into Huntington in which IWX issued an SPS for small hail. The radar signature did show some weak, broad rotation. I wasn't expecting anything so I did not have a camera with me (flip phone only back then). As I set up to watch it roll through from the south side of the cell, a concentrated area of straight line winds appeared (based on debris and tree motion) with a vortex embedded within it. I had not ever witnessed that before even though I've seen a few tornadoes. I observed as insulation and sheet metal from a nearby warehouse roof was deposited around the top of a cell phone tower and could see it not being carried straight forward, but rotating as it was lifted from about 20-25' up to at least 90' when it hit the tower. Upon reporting it to NWS, my report was met with skepticism but they agreed to do a survey.

The WCM himself conducted the survey the next day and was accompanied by a hydrologist from their office and myself. Don't ask me why about the hydrologist, because I don't know. I am not a met and have had no formal training, however, while inspecting the damage path, I noticed a narrow area of what appeared to be convergence within a larger area of divergence which would coincide with what I witnessed. Most of the damage was tree damage although a multiple structures were also affected. The damage path varied from 50 to 200' wide. However, the WCM determined straight line wind damage even though I witnessed the rotation. He was the pro and I was not, so I didn't raise too big of a stink about it, but I let him know that I disagreed with his determination.  I'm not Joe Blow from the general public.

Disclaimer: The WCM and I continue to have a good working relationship which is very important in my profession.

I learned my lesson. My dash cam is always on, my phone is always by my side, as well as a Handycam in my vehicle.  Sorry for the rant, but that has stuck in my craw ever since and I had to let it out.