IWXwx

True torch today. 

3 minutes ago, Lightning said:

It is obvious that the excitement of this storm is greatly diminishing in this thread.  

28 posts in the last 8 hrs. isn't killing it, but not bad for a Wednesday morning 48 hrs.  out.

2 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

hardypalmguy is silent

13 hours ago, Stebo said:

Most of the models were not going hard until the end, interestingly enough the GFS locked in and didn't budge for 4 days. It ended up getting it right.

This. I don't like to criticize IWX, especially since I have friends there, but run after run bullseyed the Hillsdale County area and the HRRR joined the party 48 hours out. Sorry, but they waited until the cows were out to close the barn door.

Wash, rinse, repeat for our neck of the woods.

3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

A brief clip of the circulation as it passed within my view off of my balcony.

 

Dang dude, you don't have to go to the tornadoes, they come to you!

I see Stebo is posting again and haven't seen a post from Hoosier since Saturday night. I take it more board drama.

2 hours ago, Frog Town said:

I never do this but.....That's me in the green.  

Lol @26" IMBY

A map that only the Minnesota posters and palm dude can love.

EDIT: What the heck is going on in CLE?

57 minutes ago, buckeye said:

12z gfs fits my collage nicely

Instant classic

13 hours ago, nwohweather said:

How’s this for a stat, Toledo has not recorded any measurable snowfall in February

Neither has MBY, although FWA has recorded a whopping 0.2"

3 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

The models are so bad that the NWS is just moving to the "Magic 8 Ball forecast system". 

 

"Will we get snow?"

They need to go back to the pre-AVN days.

I see that IWX finally upgraded Branch and Hillsdale Counties, MI to an Ice Storm Warning, now that HillsdaleMIWeather has to go out to his car to charge his phone so he can post.

8 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

Never had hope here. Unless you're like Hoosier and rode the 48 hour HRRR and RAP. 

Tomorrow's quick torch looks like a non-event too. What a miserable system on the cold/wet side.

Yeah, no kiddin'. I haven't checked the gauge, but I'm sure that we're over 2" and still pouring, all while in the 30's. I was going to mention yesterday that the warm front often ends up on the northern envelope of guidance, but I'm glad I didn't because it sure didn't happen this time.

7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Let's do a snowy march! February broke the stretch of getting buried so maybe March can break the stretch of being zzzz

 

I'm willing to jump on that bandwagon if I can be assured of a hard flip come April 1st.

23 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

Models pulled the rug on MSP. Hate to see it. Still a solid storm, but what might have been.

Also, models were awful with temps looking at LAF. They're at 39˚ currently. Most models had them in the 60's right now. 12z Euro had them in the low 60's all afternoon. Woof. 

EDIT: zone forecast for today. 

TIPPECANOE-   INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LAFAYETTE AND WEST LAFAYETTE  

328 AM EST WED FEB 22 2023      

TODAY   SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT AS COOL WITH   HIGHS AROUND 60. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO   25 MPH, BECOMING SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH   THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.

I got screwed on that too. The effective warm front is still about 30-40 miles south of me. Haven't been out of the mid 30's all day, while IND set a record high around 4 PM of 71°.  Predicted high in the upper 50's. At least I got a t-storm out of it this morning.

Solid first thunderstorm of the year here. Just had a very close CG strike. Not bad for 6:30 AM in February.

I'm sure that it acted as an alarm clock for a lot of people.  It's getting me in the mood for severe season.

39° and thunderstorms. Yum

"Rain, with thunderstorms also possible after 4pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 39."

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Alek nightmare scenario

 

I would be sitting pretty if it was all snow!

It will help with the abnormally dry conditions here, especially since the ground is thawed in this area.

22 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Ready for 15 degrees below normal in April and frequent RN/SN mix

The new climo

My CoCoRaHS log for February. This is just wrong, even here in the tropics that is NE Indiana. Unless we get anything measurable Friday night, it looks like we will go the entire month of Feb. without measurable snow. I'll have to look up later if that's ever happened at FWA.

lol at posting a 372 hr GFS op run temp map.

In other news, I find it hard to believe in this day and age that this is a thing:

37 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

This is only the 2nd Valentines Day in the last 18 years without snow on the ground. 

 

 

Wow, that's a pretty good run.

2 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Ohio Valley may be rather interesting on Thursday just looking at the setup aloft, and especially if the surface winds can stay closer to southerly.

This type of setup has yielded some bigger events in the region in the past.

I'm retired as of this week, and as such not tied down to our county. Pretty marginal threat to be heading down to the Cincy area though.

9 hours ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

Concerned downwind citizen here.  Is everything okay in Ohio and the surrounding area?  Based on what I am seeing, it seems like there is some sort of major environmental catastrophe happening in East Palestine.. Like someone f-ed up really bad. 

If it werent for the aliens, I would think it would be major news.. but for some reason, none of the main stream outlets are covering it.  

They torched the remaining hazmat so as to speed up getting the tracks cleared, regardless of the additional hazards surrounding residents would have to face.  It wasn't until after burning all of the rest of it off when that they said "whoops, there are other hazardous chemicals there too."  BS They railroad knew exactly what was there.  It was right on the consist. The big railroads are just as bad as other large corporations that have an almost monopoly.  It is all about the $$$. I know through working in emergency management. We have had incidents locally where Norfolk Southern had to stop train traffic and they always whine that they lose a million dollars an hour when a line is shut down and implicitly say "screw public safety."