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IWXwx

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    Winter 2022/23 Lake Effect Snow Thread

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Harry said:

    Total imby is 20. Officially it was at 20.4 as of midnight.For the month at 23.2 which is a new record for November. Personally this is the most snow in a event I have seen since moving to MI in July 2004. My first 20+ since Feb 1996 on the east coast.

    This shit disappears quick. Have about a foot on the ground and with full sun I suspect it will continue to drop quickly through the rest of the day. Still a very fun event.. 

    Any final yet out of Orchard Park? 

    Watch it. That might get the old "fake snow" debate started again. :P RIP

    Congrats on getting a rare Lake enhanced/LES that packed a punch.

    Winter 2022/23 Short/Medium Range Discussion

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    3 hours ago, sbnwx85 said:

    Will post this information here since it’s really outside the dates of the event thread ongoing.  IWX is all in on a relatively widespread lake effect event in Michiana. Potential for a foot or more in some places.  

    LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 212 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022

Elongating/sharpening upper trough through the wrn lakes of sig
concern this period. 12Z guidance a bit stronger/deeper aloft and
dig primary nrn stream wave through srn IL/IN late Wed. While lake
based thermal trough not as strong as was seen Sat, favorable long
axis fetch combined with good synoptic moisture plume will enhance
otherwise strongly forced focused single band during the day/evening
Wed over nw IN initially before backing into sw MI Wed night. Strong
multi-model consensus here lends confidence of sig, heavy snow
accums and no doubt impactful. However subtle differences on exact
placement/duration differ substantially enough to hold for another
model cycle before notching certain headlines. Nevertheless would
expect a fairly sizable swath of >6 inches northwest of a Knox-
Plymouth-Goshen-Sturgis line and potential for a foot or more in the
typical snowbelt from nrn Laporte/St Joe north through Cass/Berrien
by Thu aftn.

Elsewhere numerous snow showers expected far west early Wed,
spreading east and south through Wed night before activity shifts
north into lower MI as upper trough swings through. Accums outside
lakeband influence though will remain limited, generally 1-2 inches.

     

    Todd Holston's discussions are usually...let's just say they're succinct. For him to write more than a couple of sentences says that he's pretty bullish. 

    • Like 1

    What is your favorite weather day of all-time?

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    5 hours ago, OHweather said:

    Nov 10, 2002...Veteran's Day tornado outbreak. One of my first actual solid wx memories where I remember what I was doing that day, remember coverage of the event and some meteorological details, etc...an F2 tornado went through my town and missed my house by 100 yards. Probably the closest I'll ever be to a tornado (knock on wood) 

    I caught the very first tornado that day, an F-1 in Hartford City, IN. The same supercell that later dropped the Van Wert F-4.

    I was too up close and personal with it as it passed a couple hundred yards in front of me before smacking the Marsh grocery store. That kept me from chasing it, because I had to stop to check on injuries at the store. Otherwise, I probably would have chased it into Ohio. It also put down 2 more short-lived tornadoes (Wells and Adams Co.) before dropping big one.

    nov10map2.JPG

    • Like 2

    October 2022 General Discussion

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

    Some 80 degree readings into western IL, which is even a little warmer than the warm guidance like the HRRR.

    These early/late season airmasses seem to have a way of overperforming, especially when it's dry.

    As dry as it is, forecasters would be wise to lean toward the higher end of guidance for highs.

    October 2022 General Discussion

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

    As far as snow chances, not saying there will be no negative marine influence for South Bend, but I would think they are far enough inland to not get completely skunked like the areas near the IN/southwest MI shore probably will.  So I dug into October snowfall climo for SBN.

    There have been exactly 2 years that produced an inch or more of snow on October 18 or earlier -- 1.5" on 10/18/1972 and an incredible 13.0" on 10/10-11/1906, which appears to have been a lake effect event (in case anyone is wondering, the storm in 1989 happened just after the 18th).

    I found an alleged 1.0" snowfall in September 1994, but this appears to me to be erroneous as the lowest temp that day was 41.  Maybe it was hail or something?  Anyway, this was disregarded.

    So, if they can somehow manage to get an inch, it would be pretty significant.  Really anything measurable at all would be noteworthy for this part of October.

    Of course '89 is the gold standard for October snow in IN. An Indy TV station just highlighted it a couple of days ago. Interestingly, they have as their 2nd largest Oct. snow as 1993. I do not remember that event, and the others are from the dark ages.

    SNOWIEST-OCTOBERS.webp

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