mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?
mitchnick replied to mappy's topic in Mid Atlantic
12z Ukie ensembles I just noticed for next week. Pretty decent jump NW fwiw. -
Snowed all day up here with a little less than a half inch. Stopped, then started back up 10 minutes ago and radar upstream surprisingly good for a minor event. Mts are cheating though.
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He'll with the Euro operational. AI all the way baby...until it screws us, of course.
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Sounds a lot like 12z snowfall https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025011612&fh=105&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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Nobody mentioned the 18z Ukie, probably because the 6 and 18z runs only go out 66hrs. Anyway, it was near identical to 12z at 72hrs, except for a touch stronger slp in western NC at 1007mb instead of 1008mb and touch higher heights as a result. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025011618&fh=66&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=prateptype_ukmo-imp&m=ukmo_global
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I haven't even been looking at the lr.
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Probably a blend between Canadians and Gfs, which gives you the Icon, more or less.
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18z GGEM I think I see that ridge you live on Psu.
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18z Gem Wowzer! Yellow is 8" +/- Orange is 10" +/-
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Pretty JMA'ish
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Lot of other models go into the Srefs, so that tells me Nam really is on its own.
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Looks like yesterday's Gfs
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Looks like yesterday’s Gfs.
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Nam looks like the Gfs yesterday.
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Getting some big flakes now with a decent radar return over me. Won't last unfortunately.
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Not inconsistent with several of the models and consistent as heck. We'll see.
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This 6hr map and the next 2 if interested. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501161200&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501200000
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This panel and the next 6hr panel. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501161200&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501200000
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https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501161200&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501200000 Some before and after.
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Yep. Looks the same. Maybe, just maybe, a hair better, but not by much if it is. Definitely healthy qpf shield. You and I are near the center of the best panel.
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Euro AI held serve with 6z run it appears.
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12z AI looks like 6z run with qpf.
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AI holds serve. Looks like last run with qpf.
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Euro is carp in my eyes. All over the place. No matter what happens Sunday, you'll be able to find 1 run out of 20 that it had it right.
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For purpose of trends, Geps came south from 0z run, so better for I95.
