mitchnick

Great radar right here. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=FCX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad

Pigeon Hills are just to my north and are starting to get noticeably obscured. Need that precip southern edge to keep creeping south.

Radar shows it's snowing pretty good just to my north. And I mean "just."

The Hrrr has never done well imby. I don't why, but it's either too high or too low. That said, 12z puts me at 4-4.5", which is in my 3-5" range. Maybe it'll be right this time.

Lt rn/sn mix

I just realized I have a mix of lt rn and sn with snow increasing. Hmmmm. Early start.

Is it just the cold air that's slower, or is everything including the development of the storm? Because if it's everything, it wouldn't hurt totals as much.

If you go to this link, wait for it to populate info, then it's easy to move around if you're on your phone with 1 finger. Anyway, the cold air has made it to State Collefe and Bradford is in the upper teens. We'll be OK by the time the meaningful precip arrives....I think. Lol https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?obs=true&center=39.82,-79.68&density=1&zoom=7&basemap=OpenStreetMap&boundaries=true,false&obs_popup=true

6z Eps

6z Eps snowfall mean. Best I've seen in years for mby. Lol

Here's a link to the 5H anomalies I referred to in my earlier post fwiw. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202501180000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501270000

That looks great, but the weeklies I follow are at the link below and they aren't great for February after the first week or so. They are run off the 0z Eps from the night before and your run is from 2 nights ago. So it's possible, but I would imagine, very unlikely that 1 day would make a difference especially since the prior run at the link below was warm too. Anyway, here's the link. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202501180000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501270000

Pivotal always more conservative with Kuchera snowfall numbers, hence a better shot at verification.

Shocker! I was afraid to look to be honest. Now let's see if it verifies. I posted before how it seems to always bump numbers imby right before the event starts and it never verifies. Of course, there's still a 12z run to mess with our heads too. Lol

Silver lining, I suppose, is that most Niñas bring back the cold in March, so we may have to wait until late February or early March for a less hostile period. But then we're fighting boundary temps. Not a big problem so much in the hill ares and northern PA, but it is down in the relative lowlands like mby.

It has us in the +1C-3C or 1.8F-5.4F range for 3 weeks, give or take. And it has a ridge around the western, southern, and eastern borders of the Conus. Not pretty if you want snow. Gotta hope it's wrong, but the Euro weeklies have been great with the cold forecasts since mid-Nov. If they maintain their accuracy, be prepared for early spring talk. Lol Iow, we need the next 2 weeks badly or else TCC will be crawling out of his hole I'm sure.

They'll probably wait for 12z to come out, but I expect mine to get shaved some off the top. If we don't find a way to score after today thru the first few days of February, we're in trouble because the February pattern that looks to be coming is hostile to snow...real hostile.

I think we're OK at this point. It comes together pretty fast on modeling.

6z runs, other than Euro as it's pending, maintained that 3-5" idea for the winners as I put it last night in the MA forum. My NWS forecast has held atc3-7" since yesterday and that has a decent chance of verifying, but I doubt any 7" totals and you'll need some luck for 6". Basically a decent, moderate event.

Rgem Kuchera

Seems like a 3-5" storm for the winners.

Nothing on the Euro AI for us next week.

Models always adjust within 12-24 hours of start time, but I can't remember when the adjustment was higher and not lower, and it actually ended at that higher prog.