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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    I should add that at this range before Sunday's event, the AI had those kind of qpf numbers so don't assume it's married to those amounts.
  2. mitchnick
    AI has it but puts it further south. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=neus&pkg=apcpn24&runtime=2025012100&fh=174
  3. mitchnick
    York Airport down to -10 before midnight and -9 after. https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KTHV.html
  4. mitchnick
    Don't know if anyone has looked closely, but modeling is back to looking warm the start of February. Honestly, I think it's inevitable. Weeklies went back to the warm look for every week in February after a step back from it yesterday. We'll see. Hopefully models are missing something...like weenie desires.
  5. mitchnick
    18z AI looks better with a little more qpf and colder 850 temps. Surface temps somewhere between 0-4C, but 850's are around -4C. So I wouldn't worry about it. Also comes in on Monday and not Tuesday. 2nd event is wetter but a little too warm for snow. Early on that one however.
  6. mitchnick
    Can someone who knows with certainty tell me the difference between the extended Eps and Eps weeklies, if there is a difference? Thank you. @brooklynwx99 ?
  7. mitchnick
    Start OK, warm to being close, then cool. Maybe some mix for part of it.
  8. mitchnick
    1st event looks wetter. AI
  9. mitchnick
    I see the first. How (bad) does the 2nd look?
  10. mitchnick
    234hrs Gfs is getting ready for an arctic dump into the Conus. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025012012&fh=228&dpdt=&mc=&r=na&p=850th&m=gfs
  11. mitchnick
    Same idea as the AI, but a little wetter and 12hrs later. Close enough.
  12. mitchnick
    We have cold and precip on Monday plus, obviously, it's sooner so less opportunity to fail. I'd really like to see this one juice up in case #2 fails.
  13. mitchnick
    You missed a spot.
  14. mitchnick
    Looks like overrunning because the precip hits an east-west wall of -4C or less 850's.
  15. mitchnick
    @Heisy 6z AI looks to be getting more interested on Monday/Tuesday next week. Still light precip with suppression of heavier stuff. But I think that's not far from a moderate event. 30/31st looks a little warm but may end as snow. This still has big upside potential imho if we get the temps to cooperate as the AI is showing a strong bowling ball vort moving east with redevelopment off the coast. Fingers crossed. EDIT: Big cold dump from Canada at the end of the run.
  16. mitchnick
    I'll check. Ended at 6.5" measuring on the sidewalk but the other poster in Hanover measured 7".
  17. mitchnick
    They do, but we don't get into the meat of the precip. Actually, last night's Gfs runs, as opposed to the Euro, aren't really that different from what the AI is showing, which is a bit surprising to me.
  18. mitchnick
    .35 would have been 20:1, so 18 or 19:1 without doing the math.
  19. mitchnick
    Time sensitive. Check out the swirling streamers up near Buffalo off the lake. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=BUF-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad
  20. mitchnick
    York Airport down to -1 at 4am reading! https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KTHV.html Lol on that one.
  21. mitchnick
    0z AI showing several threats next week (early and late week) but main concern would be suppression due to cold push being stronger. Not worth discussing details.
  22. mitchnick
    DC got 8" or so in the Kennedy storm and reported .3" for this one.
  23. mitchnick
    18z AI has the 1/30-31 threat as rain now. But that can change in 6 hours so nbd.
  24. mitchnick
    18z Euro did pretty well along with the 18z model runs with that heavy stripe. Too bad the Euro comes out after it essentially ends. Lol P.s. this was a post 1pm forecast
  25. mitchnick
    I got 6.5" but measured on the sidewalk in 2 increments, 4.5 and 2. It's fluff so it'll be at 5" before morning if the winds don't blow it away.
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