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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    6z AI no better than 0z for late January/early February.
  2. mitchnick
    Modeling overnight, including the 6z Euro and Eps, have strengthened the cold push at day 6+. If the southern vort came up earlier on recent modeling, it would stay south in all likelihood. So it's not necessarily a bad thing it's being delayed. Bottom line is that it is soooo difficult to get the perfect timing needed for a decent event as depicted on the 0z. All we can hope for now is that the Euro AI is not right at this range because there's no chance for anyone east of the Mississippi if it is.
  3. mitchnick
    They used their first and index fingers. How dare you! I wonder how many kids got injured trying that. Lol
  4. mitchnick
    A thumb in the eye of those who would have laughed at anyone who would have predicted such a week at the start of winter.
  5. mitchnick
    Bliz, I'll save you the effort on the Euro 0z. It's la-la land and one of many possibilities, but this is what one of the best possibility looks like.
  6. mitchnick
    0z Gem was set up for a hit of some kind at the end of its run, which is around the target time frame right after the end of January.
  7. mitchnick
    At this range, the AI is at best another ensemble member. No big deal.
  8. mitchnick
    Let us know how bad we lose. Lol
  9. mitchnick
    Because you've been a bad boy and don't deserve them.
  10. mitchnick
    There's something wrong with the Euro site and I can't pull up any of the products from the list. Sorry.
  11. mitchnick
    Little disappointed in @Heisy he didn't post this 5H anomaly at 144hrs off the 18z Eps. That's quite the trough for an ensemble mean in SE Canada.
  12. mitchnick
    Funny how the 18z Gefs snowfall is heaviest in central VA. I'll take that as a good sign at this range.
  13. mitchnick
    You mean spins and dies. That's not the kind of wave Snowman was talking about.
  14. mitchnick
    It's not cutting because it's weaker by leaving energy behind was my attempted point.
  15. mitchnick
    Looks great at 252hrs
  16. mitchnick
    Gfs leaving energy behind. It's coming out weaker so less likely to cut I think.
  17. mitchnick
    Soooo hard to make things work. Northern stream has a vort to either rescue it or push it ots.
  18. mitchnick
    Gem had something sorta similar on 12z run https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025012218&fh=156&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  19. mitchnick
    Latest Gefs extended gets the wave in Phase 8 by February 20th. That's a good Phase with a trough in the east. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/gmon.shtml
  20. mitchnick
    Fwiw, Gefs latest Extended puts a weak MJO wave into Phase 8 by February 20th. That's an excellent phase for us in a Niña with a trough in the east. Coincidentally, it matches approximately the period Psu highlighted for a return to cold per analogs. See how simple this is? Lol https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/gmon.shtml
  21. mitchnick
    Western Atlantic Ridge Warms us up
  22. mitchnick
    Nah, follow up is rain too. Not so sure I buy the warm scenarios yet.
  23. mitchnick
    There's a follow up storm that might work. Driving so can't say for sure.
  24. mitchnick
    AI wayyyy west and warm. Worse than any operational.
  25. mitchnick
    Ukie stronger
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