mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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There's a High up to the NNW moving east.
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Oh, a postal worker!
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@DarkSharkWX WxBell out yet with 12z AI?
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Ukie ensembles last 3 runs compared. 12z improved over 6z in most areas
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AI also has a coastal next Wednesday (2/19) that is light to moderate as of today, but decent looking and could be better assuming it doesn't evaporate at 18z. Lol
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12z AI looks similar to 6z (6z maps posted earlier today) on temps but more qpf based on my guess.
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12z AI IS BETTER THAN 6Z!
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If you haven't shed a tear this year yet, let me help. That's pretty incredible even if it's wrong.
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No
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Gefs
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Yesterday, the Euro followed the Ukie. Let's see if history repeats.
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Really should use the bias corrected (bc) version. Still gets onto 8 but very weak.
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Won't live or die by gfs operational.
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Looks like there's a part 2 coming too.
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Similar to yesterday's solution.
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Those great forecasts were on the runs with a split of the PV thanks to a SSW. All the models have backed down from that so I doubt they come back without a return of the PV split/SSW, and that would be a miracle at this point.
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If we get the overrunning before the slp forms, that's what gives us a shot at the double digit outcomes, but we'll need both overrunning and the slp to contribute. Otherwise, it's a 3-6" or 8" best case.
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Yes
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AI Thursday qpf
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AI qpf main event
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None are perfect all the time. It's hit or miss. I'm just reporting what it shows and not saying it’s going to be right or better than any other model.
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6z Ukie ensembles improved over 0z run from Fredericksburg north.
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The precip amounts are really hard to judge totals because the range on the maps is huge. All I can say confidentially is that it's at least 6", and that would be at 10:1 ratios. 850's are cold on the AI, close to -8 up here and between -4 and -8 south of the PA border until around DC, the -4 to 0 into Central VA.
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To clarify, they do move north so Saturday, VA into Central MD have lost thermals between 0z and 6z. But Saturday is not a big event.
