mitchnick

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=prateptype_ukmo-imp&rh=2025020700&fh=111&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Gem looks good

If #1 is south, so will #2.

Since game time is still 102hrs+, we're fine. None of the ensembles center the bullseye south of us anyway.

No, but I may be...

18z Ukie ensembles thru 198hrs...Eps'ish

I posted in the 11th/12th thread 18z looks like 12z with a little more precip expanded north. Hard to be precise with the graphics. Additional snow threats on the AI run: 1) Saturday 2/15 Moderate event that may end as mix or rain after 80% snow 2) Wednesday 3/19 light event that looks to have potential for more. It was a bigger event on earlier runs 3) End of run 2/21 Big storm heading east with a nice trough. Could be big a day or 2 later but could be rain. EDIT: Follow-up storm next Thursday mainly rain after a little snow or frozen

18z AI looks identical to 12z with a hair more precip expanded north. Additional threats I'll put in the extended thread.

They always win in a Niña.

Hmmm, special pants for sex?

Including the old FOLKS????

Uh oh....

I agree it's probably a "cheesy" way of getting to those totals, but we haven't had a snowfall mean like that, cheesy or legit, since 2016. So there's something to be said about that, which it sounds like you sorta acknowledged so I don't want to make it sound like I'm being critical.

I was thinking, the Eps mean looks right based on what the AI is showing but not the Euro operational. Also, how often is the ensemble snowfall mean more than the operational? I don't know, but it's pretty rare if my memory in correct.

Add the AI to the list.

Since it's probably been since 1/16 when we saw an Eps snowfall mean this good, I had to post it since nobody else did

Tuesday has less qpf and a little south. Next Saturday looks real nice.

This is thru only 300 hrs. Some of those waves must be scoring.

Comes out at 2pm.

6z AI very similar to 0z but maybe a touch more precip to the north of 0z. It then has a light event Wednesday night into Thursday. Then Tuesday 2/17 has a moderate event. Thursday 2/20-21 has a stronger storm with initial temp issues. That can and will change. P.s. I have not mentioned any rain events.

My road looks fine even with little traffic.

Lot of sleet and zr. Now for a nice morning drive down to Towson.

6z Euro has the boundary further south at 144hrs vs 0z at 150hrs fwiw.

It was over at that point on the 0z.