mitchnick

Still getting rapid cooling around Japan and overall cooling of the Pacific between California and Japan.

Glad you brought it up. Gfs has been showing a Wave 1 hit on the PV for several days. This is from the 6z run.

Let me say, there really was a noticeable difference as soon as it was done. Probably because of the lousy insulation job in the first place and a 2nd half azzed attempt the homeowner did after construction.

I went with Carroll Insulation in Westminster. They and 1 other place seemed reputable and dependable of all the places I cojtacted. The other place just does foam instead of loose fill and that wouldn't work for my place. Carroll is a regional company if not nationwide. It was 3k. It's based on square footage. I had them do the attic over the main part of the house and over the master br, which is over the garage. It would have been cheaper if I had them keep the old Insulation and just blow in insulation over it. But air infiltration is actually a big culprit for heat loss and this house being built in 78 has a lot of crevices, so I figured wth, I'll never do it again. Tax credit of 20% if you get it done this year, but I'm sure they raise prices to take advantage of it. Lol

46 here, but that was brief. Clouds came in and held it at 47 for most of the night. No heat on in the house yet this morning or this year however. Toasty 67 now. In January I had the old cr@p insulation in the attic removed, had them seal all openings and cracks with foam, then blew in R48. That along with replacement windows I installed 2 years ago, insulating my basement ductwork and other sealing and insulation around the house in my spare time (which is every day now lol), and this house is tight. Just a shame I have oil heat, but I'm pricing gas and heat pumps now.

61.9 is current and our max. You've had more sun, which may explain it. I wouldn't mind seeing this Euro day 10 map show up on a regular basis this winter.

.3" total qpf. Another underperformer. Hopefully, the overperformers start showing up in December.

Oh, the Starlight is worth the wait! Spoken like an old kogger. Lol

Enjoy!

Don't forget to duck if you hear gunfire.

.2" so far w/-rn

I went purely on the ensemble means with my thoughts and didn't look at any of the members. With the ensembles just averaging things out, some members could have shown that scenario and others the warmer one with an average in the upper 60's. I will say that all 3 ensembles seem bent on averaging on the cooler side down the road, typical for strong Niño Octobers. In fact, the 6z operational GFS has a serious cold shot at the end of the run fwiw. So I guess I would roll the dice at this point and go with 60's max.

Well, if the Pacific warming is man-made, it won't cool anytime in the near future. We'll know soon enough.

I don't believe you/he are correct. The model he posted for the 850 anomalies is the Gfs showing anomalies from July 8 to October 6. I've attached today's Gfs forecast starting today that includes part of his plot as well. The westerlies are replaced by easterlies starting tomorrow!

I agree, it'll be close. To be honest, I'm not familiar with MDT climo. But I was thinking more our back yards. So I could see MDT with its lower elevation and sitting in an urban environment hitting 70 and us staying in the upper 60's.

While I agree that the next couple weeks (sorry Bubbler ) may not reach 70, I have little doubt that we will see 70 before spring as Niños are famous for impressive warm-ups, especially strong ones.

Yeah, well, I don't buy that. I have some real problems with everybody thinking weather models of one sort or another, are correct. I'll stop right there to avoid any further debate as I understand others may disagree.

Ughhh. Was supposed to finish the tile in my bathroom then mow the lawn this morning before the rain hit. Wouldn't you know it. A few renegade showers ahead of the front have come through. I hate mowing wet grass but wth, I'm doing it.

You said: "The new findings shed light on the factors conducive to escalating extreme La Niña in a future warming world. More multiyear La Niña events will exacerbate adverse impacts on communities around the globe, if the western Pacific continues to warm relative to the central Pacific." But doesn't that presuppose that Niñas aren't, in fact, causing/participating in feeding the warming? And if the warming western Pacific is the likely cause for multi-year Niñas, what evidence, if you know, is the cause of the warming?

I'm sure we'll still see a few days AN, but averaging at or below. Still not feeling the 70's next week based on the ensembles. If I was a gentleman, I'd bet you. But alas, I am not.

My guess is that October looks much like September with a 4 day heat wave (of sorts) that results in a near normal average month in an otherwise below normal/normal regime.

81 imby

Updated thru 9/30. Subsurface cooling continues.

I'm betting the ensembles are closer to reality, but time will tell. Ensembles have been looking like that for a few days, which makes me think they're closer to right than wrong. As for the operationals, I don't even consider the Gfs for surface temps. But it's not that bad otherwise.

I think you and maybe me see highs in the upper 50's; areas to my north and west too. Even my NWS forecast for Sunday & Monday have highs of 59 and 57. After that, all 3 ensembles look to me to be under 70 all next week. Those are 5 day periods on those maps.