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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    Despite the location of the surface anomalies, the upper 300 meters have been shifting westward.
  2. mitchnick
    Unless I hear it from Eric Webb, I won't get excited.
  3. mitchnick
    So in other words, if your hopes for a winter ruining super Niño don't materialize this year, you have renewed hope that next winter will be ruined by a Niña. Something is wrong with you.
  4. mitchnick
    As a paranoid Mid-Atlanticer, I'm hoping to get rid of the La Niño in favor of an El Niño by 12/1. I'm in no mood to roll the dice on snowfall with a "unique" look.
  5. mitchnick
    37 at 5am. Don't know what has happened since. THV sitting at 30...what's new.
  6. mitchnick
    With all the large wobbles, I have a hard time thinking daily ensemble updates are really that useful. Seems they are just as bad, or close to just as bad, as operational runs. Jmho
  7. mitchnick
    Betcha' I know who loves Webb...
  8. mitchnick
    I'd be happy with a weak pv to at least avoid a December shutout and hope for the SSW down the road. Heck, we don't require a SSW event in strong Niños with well placed forcing anyway.
  9. mitchnick
    Link is here with graph on the right side of the page. https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/
  10. mitchnick
    27.2 so far, but 2 Wunderground sites near me have a 26 handle.
  11. mitchnick
    On a different note...
  12. mitchnick
    Looking at the surface temps as depicted on the SSTA maps, December has the east coast in the first AN level (don't see the legend, but I'm guessing+.5C-1C?) and the rest of the months are all in the normal range with some BN in February. That's not bad at all.
  13. mitchnick
    I think I've seen the Cansips late on TT 1, maybe 2 times, in the past many years. Usually out the evening of the last day of the month.
  14. mitchnick
    I admit it...I've been listening for the last 15 minutes.
  15. mitchnick
    Sounds good to me. Snow Water equivalent looks to be normal from Boston on south along I95 and westward beyond I81. I'll take that in a heartbeat.
  16. mitchnick
    Fwiw, updated Cansips from the Canadian site. Only map is a global map and no 500mb maps. https://climate-scenarios.canada.ca/?page=cansips-global
  17. mitchnick
    @FPizz Huh? I said I posted it yesterday and it was on the previous page.
  18. mitchnick
    They got those maps from the same link I posted last night, one page back in this thread. And it was cold off the presses by the time they posted it this afternoon. https://www.metcheck.com/SEASONAL/cansips_charts.asp
  19. mitchnick
    1st wet flakes of the year right now!
  20. mitchnick
    If it's colder than the Wxbell site, then you have to wonder. Lol
  21. mitchnick
    Actually, the regular Cfs site does an average of 10 days of runs, or something along those lines. See up top at this link. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html
  22. mitchnick
    Tropical Tidbits and the regular Cfs site gives an average of the last 12 runs. The run on that site is just today's 12z.
  23. mitchnick
    Yeah. It says celsius, but no idea on the increments. I actually prefer the CFS forecast for February and March off that site. Take a look. Now that's a Niño on the CFS.
  24. mitchnick
    Here we go. New Cansips. 850 temps at or a littie below but surface temps a little above. Precip, I think, AN in the east. No 500mb maps unfortunately. https://www.metcheck.com/SEASONAL/cansips_charts.asp
  25. mitchnick
    They're not great maps, as in not very helpful, but these are temp and precip probability maps from the updated Cansips. It does look to be a little cooler, but won't guarantee that. https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/prob_e.html
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