mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Not last night's runs. All looked very good and all had some appreciable snowfall post NYD. Impressive for such long range forecasts of ensemble products.
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Downstate PA not good enough for you, ehh?
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Not saying it's right, but it is impressive if nothing else.
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Don't look now, but 2/10 just walked in the door. Sharp north cut-off included.
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
mitchnick replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
If accurate, it could just be a natural response to cool global oceans. -
It's the DC culture.
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In weenie world, the best of times have the ensembles supporting the operational runs. But we're too far out for that. Be that as it may, I personally believe we have our first legit threat at a legit snowstorm to track fwiw.
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No way slp would head for the GL with the ensemble mean 500mb and 250mb wind flow.
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Should have said, it's the same system reflected at the end of the Gfs essentially. And you know what they say...the big ones are sniffed out far in advance...sometimes.
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Really decent signal on the Eps for a snowstorm 1/3-1/5 period.
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Exactly in response to the original poster.
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Clouds came in. Same here.
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Cloud cover /rain theory may work in the summer....may....but cloud cover in the winter maintains higher temps at night and those AN/BN are daily averages. I don't know how many times it has to be posted on this site (mentioned a lot in the MA and NE forums) that Canada can be above normal while below normal in the Conus because Canada normal is very cold in actual temps.
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If the Federal Government had a nickel for every post you've made with the phrase "constructively interfering " or variation thereof, the national debt would be halved. I just hope this Niño peaks soon or I fear it will constructively interfere with your wedding preparations.
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https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad
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https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=CCX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad
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That'll change come the New Year. Ensembles are sweet and every MJO forecast is outstanding, except the Australian BOMM, which should be bombed it's so bad. It had a Niño peak >+3C!!!
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Fyi, you can get all MJO progs at this link. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml
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Will this do?
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Let's just not engage CC or his alter ego TimB. They are not happy souls. Has either ever posted anything positive for cold and/or snow? Of course not, and it's intentional. The whole purpose is to bring everyone down their dark, depressing hole. Best to leave them in their corner alone because they are not here to sincerely discuss weather and there's nothing anyone on this Board can do to cure them.
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It's you. You have no joy in your life. Seriously.
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And they could just as easily switch back in a day or 2 like they switched today. As consistent as they have been for the past 2 weeks, you'd almost expect it.
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"could" end up historically strong? Boy, that's really going out on limb for you. Lol
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It includes an inch, gige or take, with the u/l low that swings thru after the big rain and the an inch or 2 on CHRISTMAS EVE!
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Everyone asleep for the Euro? 10:1 and Kuchera.
