Should have mentioned that the 0z Euro had the system the Ggem had at the end of its run, but was too far north for most of the forum. Plenty of time to come south in keeping with the flavor of the season.
0z Gfs had it dumping a decent event but 6z went haywire. It'll be back on the Gfs, of course.
All modeling seems to have improved for the weekend, including 6z runs. Icon remains the best, so I've attached it.
P.s. Ggem has a bomb at the end of its run. It was close at 12z, but adjusted for a home run at 0z.
Eps improved from 12z with coverage and increasing amounts. Not much, but we are talking about ensembles that are always incremental in changes at 3+ days.
It did ok with today's event, but that could have been luck as it's rarely the best model on any particular storm. The king has been dethroned with nothing to replace it, so model anarchy rules.
Shame timing on the Gem is off on this.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024021312&fh=132&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1