mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Snow squall underway
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Ukie has done the best imho as it held on to the idea of a storm for days. Ukie lighter with the precip, but every storm has gotten wetter in the end, so we'll see. 6z Icon looks very similar to 0z. Both of them have a similar idea with snowfall, Icon is better.
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Icon
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Wow...18z Eps looks nice for Friday. Just need another 50 miles south for a bigger hit down here.
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Not a huge fan of the Srefs unless they're decent (lol), but a weenie has to do what a weenie has to do. Old run on top and new run hot off the presses below.
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Sounds like what happens when you get old. :-/
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18z Euro
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This system has a few tricks up its sleeve before Monday night. I doubt that Nam solution holds, but trying to out guess the Nam will put you in an institution, so I'll stop here. Lol
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Checking snowfall, it shows little accumulations. Maps are misleading unfortunately.
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18z Nam looking a little jucier at 42hrs vs 12z.
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Mine as well
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This fantasy storm is better than that due to ratios. Kuchera
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Too many short waves and a monster tpv.
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Meh....Icon a fail but close.
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Icon looking very Nam'ish thru 78. Money shots will come, if at all, afterwards.
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Rgem https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024011300&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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It's starting from basically brown ground unfortunately despite a day of intermittent light snows.
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Seems the only way this thing works is for the initial wave to trigger slp. It's a risk because of the threat of warmer temps. That's what the 18z Icon did and Nam looks similar.
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Agree. Similar results as Gem 12z I would guess.
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This is a link to the Rgem extended. It goes out 120 hours. You have to click the "animate" button on the left side of the page. https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html
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18z Ggem surface map very close to 12z, which is on top. Link below if you want to explore more maps. https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=cmc_gdps&run=18&stn=PT&hh=090&map=na&stn2=PT&run2=12&mod2=cmc_gdps&hh2=090&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
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So which is the worse model? The model that 1st picked up on a storm idea, then after a few runs with a storm, shiws a weak pos? Or the models that picked up on the storm a day later then loses the storm the day after the model that first picked up on a storm idea? Because that is the way it looks "now." It could change, of coirse, but which models remains the question. I think none is any better or worse than the other.
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Ughh Gfs
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Idk about anyone else, but I sure wish we had more models to analyze.
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You may be right, but I'd consider it a win either way. But I do think the Rgem would have come thru for us too. Very similar to Gem. I'll have the 18z Gem in an hour or less for comparison.
