mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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I just noticed as well that the Wxbell depiction of the conditions at 48hrs is way overdone vs Pivotal. Check out Pivotal's surface up top and radar returns on the bottom link. That's crazy different from Wxbell. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2024011718&fh=48&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=refcmp&rh=2024011718&fh=48&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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I'd take that, but the Wxbell maps are inflated, as usual, as Pivotal shows York Airport at 2.8" instead of 3.3".
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18z Canadian HRDPS a little better. Top link is snow qpf and bottom link shows it's still snowing end of run. https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/precipitation-accumulation.php?mod=cmc_hrdps&run=18&type=SN&hi=000&hf=084&mode=latest&lang=en&map=qc https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrdps®ion=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2024011718&fh=48
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Yeah. I saw my Nws forecast of 2-4" and thought exactly as you said. Oddly, for 2 days they said 1-2" and then changed it sometime this afternoon. I think they should have left it alone.
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Drying process continues with the 18z Ggem. Max qpf of dark blue area is .2-.299".
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We better get at least a couple inches because from what I'm seeing today, I'll be surprised if we get a legit threat again before the 2nd week of February.
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?
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Vort pass is moving north. I saw that on the Srefs last 2 runs and thought they may be out to lunch, but at least the Nam twins are moving toward them.
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3k Nam looks like the srefs past 2 runs. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024011718&fh=58&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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Looking at snowfall maps is disappointing unfortunately.
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Nam is looking to have more coastal interraction. Jackpot looking north similar to HRRR.
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18z HRRR pretty good starting 10 miles north of me....lol Still around 2.5" here, but some 4"+ to the north. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024011718&fh=48&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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Yeah, but nobody's been able to figure out the results of SSW event. Any predictions are better labeled guesses. In any event, we'll know by the end of the month, give or take. Just wish we could "steal" an event between now and the end of the month, but I doubt we'll be that lucky.
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We're at a peak in the solar cycle, which adds to the sun's heating efficiency.
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SSW events are not voodoo. They really do occur. Predicting the results, if any, of SSW events to the weather at any particular location(s) is voodoo imho.
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Yep. It can overcome a lousy MJO sometimes too if it comes on our side, but hopefully we get the combo.
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Sudden Stratospheric Warming event ocurring today. No guarantees the cold comes on our side of the Pole, but if it does, February into March will be sweet and white. Normally takes 15-20 days on average before we see it translate to the troposphere, so we'll know then who the winter benefactors in the Northern Hemisphere are. Keep your fingers crossed...eyes too if you want to make driving fun.
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If ever you wonder why I whine so much, keep this picture in your mind. Composite radar off the Nam. That hole with barely any echoes is literally right over my house and snowfall total map reflects it as well. Which begs the question...why did I stop drinking?
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You may be right, but there's a lot of open field before you get to the quarry, which is what gives me some pause on that theory.
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Think I'd like it a little further south....50 miles or so.
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Depending on where max area sets up, it's either a 1-3" or 2-4" event at this point. Wild card is how much interaction between departing coastal and u/l low. Rgem and Icon have precip getting sucked westward by the u/l, hence the 4-5" accumulations. Still need to wait to see what modeling consensus goes with.
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We might have a problem with atmospheric memory on Friday as in the heaviest stuff may fall to our south. You can see it in the Eps and Gfs that they want to jackpot the same area as today. Canadians favor PA. To early to say for certain.
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Whenever the ensemble mean is more than the operational, operational is probably too low. Not that there's a huge difference, but the ensemble mean is definitely better than operational using Pivotal. Weatherbell maps are always higher.
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18z Eps snowfall mean
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It's probably my cheap azz thermometer that has me a bit warmer. Plus, it hangs off a porch post around 6' off the ground and 6' from the house.
