mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Yeah, radar and surface maps suggested more. Still, 3-4" around us.
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I wish I hadn't wrenched my back on Monday shoveling snow.
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Bernie Rayno's 3-6" looking good.
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We are getting Named for sure.
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Nam looking good
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HRRR jackpoting mby similar to Euro fwiw.
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It's funny you mention the parking issue. My wife and I always go during off hours, so it's never an issue.
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The odd part is that all the new runs have me at 3-4". Yesterday I said the Nws forecast of 2-4" was too high and 1-3" was more likely. So when I saw the runs overnight, I figured they were right. Then I check the forecast and they cut it back. Makes little sense. I'm starting to think somebody from CTP driving thru Hanover stopped at the Starlight and got a lousy meal, so now they're getting even.
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After all the great model runs, just checked my Nws forecast and they changed it from 2-4" last night to 1-2". Lol
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Fell asleep early last night and woke up to some great, positive trends. Gives me more hope for February-March.
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Latest Sref fwiw. Odd distribution to say the least. Looks like 2 different camps...maybe 3.
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Based purely on the Nam, this is really close to something bigger. 4-6 hour difference between this and a general 6-10" event for many imho.
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3k different but a Naming for more
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Definitely for the eastern half of the state.
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Philly and nw burbs are the place to be
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I think it's going to be close but no cigar.
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Gets better at 33. If I didn't know better, I'd say we're going to get Named
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Dang, Nam looks a lot better at 30 hrs....famous last words.
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That's typical down there, honestly.
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I was looking in the MA forum and there are a few forecast maps posted from tv mets and Nws. I know some will disagree, but from what I've seen, they are all too high. It's my humble opinion that because the Monday storm produced on the high side of forecasts, especially in the DC/BALT area, mets are going on the high side for this event. I saw the those local tv mets down there do it when I lived there for 60+ years just like they always liked to lowball early season minor events.
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Eps snowfall map improved too. 12z Eps snowfall on top 18z on bottom
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Nobody's perfect! Lol
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Speaking of snowfall maps, 18z Euro. Lol
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Personally, I love the snowfall maps. Sure, they're often inaccurate, but so are the forecasts and most of us know that there's no guarantee as to their accuracy. But I get what you're saying.
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They've always been consistent with Ncep and Tt. But I think there may be another explanation. Your maps say 3k HRRR while Pivotal don't. That may be the reason.
