mitchnick

Looking at the ensembles, I just don't see how the weeklies are going to verify the first week. It's possible that the MJO is messing them up since most modeling has the wave doubling back once in Phase 7 to either barely back into 6 or on the edge of 7 to 6, then toward Phase 8. But for the week beginning 2/12, the first progged week of the perfect 5h previously posted, I don't see any of the ensembles that end on or about 2/12 looking like the weeklies. So it's either all 3 ensembles are wrong at the end of their runs, an unaffordable can-kick of the pattern by day(s)/week, or they're modeled perfect patterns are a fail and who knows what will verify. That said, I am basing this on the 12z Gefs and 0z Eps and Geps. Hopefully the 12z runs of those 2 will suggest their prior runs were flawed.

Yep. Long way to go. Be nice to commemorate the 2/6/10 blizzard with one on 2/6/24.

Snow mean has increased, but a lot of spread on how far north slp can come. Definitely in the game as of now.

Eps only goes out 360 hrs vs 384 for Geps. Eps on its way to Geps a day later looking at this 360hr map.

Geps finally kicks the trough out of the SW and builds a +PNA & -EPO. Temps in the east are at or below normal headed down. This fits perfectly with all extended ensembles. Next step is the the Atlantic trough to continue migrating north into the 50/50 position thereby causing the -NAO to get firmly established.

We hope in the Gfs

I've never covered mine. I've thought about doing it, but never heard any horror stories if I didn't. But I have thought that if we were threatened by a bad ice storm, I'd get around to it.

Good. If it ain't gunna snow, let me save my oil until it's cold enough to snow. Then I can put all that wonderful, warming carbon in the air. Lol

Eps extended have been advertising a big event the week of 2/12-19 for several days. I don't know its evolution, but my guess would be the sw trough lifts out and because a major storm that has its main effects on the interior. The first snowfall map I posted last night reflects that with the greatest snowfall anomalies in NE PA, but stretching south toward us as well. I was thinking that may be our first shot at a biggy.

It was so unusual, I doubt anyone is too surprised.

It's too warm to use 10:1 Bliz. I think Kuchera is closer to reality, which is more snow tv than anything. 6z Gfs drops a bomb over mby. Lol Yeah...right.

Last sentence is why it's hard to get excited, but I think I'll see flakes.

Updated extended Eps snowfall anomaly for 3 weeks, the first week is the 7 days ending 2/19.

Mean back to earth the hard way.

I am referring to third week on the Gefs extended and Eps weeklies.

I'm really wondering what the he!! is going on with these pos ensembles that continue to hold onto the ridge in the east. I just don't see how the Gefs extended and Eps weeklies verify.

Hard up. I lived there long enough to know the feeling. Lol

Yeah, I was just going to mention how the Euro carves out a large trough in the east thanks to the Canadian ridge that pins it in the NE and won'tlet to escape. Recall the Gfs was advertising a trough in the east similar to it several days ago, so I guess it was on to something.

Gfs loses a lot of the snow because it loses the closed 500mb vort.

Nam extrapolated would be great, so we've got that going for us, which is nische.

I can smell it here on ene'ly winds. But my back way to Williamsburg, VA takes me thru the town of West Point, VA, which has a seemingly bigger mill you drive right by so I'm used to it. I fondly recall the days of my youth growing up in Glen Burnie, MD when winds were out of the NW you could really smell the hops from the Carling Beer brewery along the SE side of the Baltimore beltway at I895. Ahh, now that was nice. Too bad the beer sucked. Lol

Some days, that smell from the paper mill in Spring Grove can make it a long way.

Euro seemingly folding to the Gfs but without the closed low over MD, which is what gives most of PA its snow. If the Gfs loses the closed low (like the Gefs), we're toast on the snow. Still time, but this event has been a longshot all along for goof reason.

6z Euro is basically rain for all despite some mix or snow in higher elevations. It even pulls the plug on high totals in NE.

Yep, but literally no ensemble support. But I don't think any of the models have really figured it out. I was surprised to see the Eps 0z run pulled back from snowfall amounts in NE from its 18z run. Sorta expected to see it increase snowfall waiving bye-bye to our chances.