mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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6z 3k. Some snow still falling on the cape only at this point.
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3k looks to be similar. Will post it when storm's over.
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6z Nam improved down south from 0z
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Closest reporting station to mby reporting snow is Port Treverton at 33. Selinsgrove is 34 and light snow.
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Gfs is nice.
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I should add, Icon is mainly north of me and Euro is mainly south. We've found out today anything's possible.
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Yes. I think we have a solid chance Saturday, it gets cold (wasted cold), then turns warmer. If the SSW occurs starting the 17th or so, Chuck over in the MA forum claims we see results in around 10 days; it's quicker later in the season. Anyway, after the warm period we have a shot at a late season bomb...or another tease.
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I vividly remember a storm back in 1/78 while in college living just south of Bwi. It's on the Nesis list. But I saw the precip (snow with that storm) coming from the same vicinity miss me to the NW for hours as I cursed it knowing they were getting decent accumulations. ENE/NE jackpoted with it (1'+) while I got around 4", then sleet with a change back to pity flakes to remind me I was unworthy.
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Did anyone post the 18z Eps? I didn't see it. Here it is in case it wasn't.
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0z Hrrr drier
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Yep, and I never thought we'd have another storm like any of them.
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I'm not questioning his abilities, but that mets are slaves to the models. He changed his mind and forecast due to the change in modeling. Since all have access to the modeling, we can all come up with a reasonable forecast for our backyards, and some beyond our backyards.
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He sure did an about face from his position as recently as yesterday, if not this morning. Just goes to show you, in the end, may as well look at the models yourself for the forecast.
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Nam's 6hr forecast from 18z...right smack on the dot for slp location and strength. Encouraging on the issue of its forecast accuracy for the event.
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Bust
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Ukie https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024021212&fh=54&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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Latest Rap totals https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024021215&fh=36&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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Idk, seems like they're living in the past. Especially when you consider what Lwx is thinking. In any event, I think this is a 2-4" or 3-6" event imby from what I've seen so far.
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Definitely seeing on the Gfs and Gefs the influx of ocean moisture as it departs.
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Gefs
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Canadians nasso hot again. Ggem
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Icon still likes this weekend. Hope it comes south some, but that never happens.
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Gotta be tough to work for the Nws.
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Nws Lwx just put out a ws watch for 5" of snow in northern Baltimore County, all of Frederick and Carroll counties.
