mitchnick

Better now than the winter.

Blue sky to the west visible but still crushing imby.

Getting crushed by an isolated t storm.

Here's the Cfs2 850 anomalies for the earlier 2m temps. Hard to not at least crack a smile with this map.

Cfs2 new extended forecast out today for Jan-Mar is looking a lot like the Cansips' July run.

I don't know if that's the only criteria they use. If you look at the graph at the top of the page, it includes sunspot numbers as well as solar flux and 3 other measures. I never looked into it nor really care for that matter. We're at or near the top now and should be headed down come winter is all I need to know.

Apparently the "expert" at that link says the peak was in May per the "Monthly solar cycle data."

Got around .15" yesterday.

Looks like we're at the top with a double peak per smoothed numbers near the bottom of the page. https://solen.info/solar/index.html

The east coast radar signature reminds me a lot of how 1/25/00 shield backed in off the ocean. We don't usually see that liie they do in New England.

Normal is for wimps.

Raining lt to mod with 1/3 of the NW'ern sky blue.

I was looking at the numbers behind the attached pic representing equatorial temp anomalies surface to 300 meters down. I found the actual numbers used to generate that chart at the link below. It only goes back to 1979, so it's without the 72/73 Super Niño. But if you look at all the springs/early summers after strong and super Niños since 79', in years when a Niña followed, temps from the surface down became much cooler than this year. In fact, this year bottomed in April, held steady in May, and started warming again in June. No other post Niño spring/early summer did that. I know we don't have too many years to consider (I looked at 82/83, 91/92, 97/98, 15/16, & 23/24.) My point is, this year is unlike any other post strong/super Niño spring since 1979. So it just makes me think that for Enso to reach anything colder than a weak Niña will be tough, if at all. And even assuming a moderate to strong background Niña state of the atmosphere, what would the warmer waters mean to an eastern conus winter? Dunno and I'm too lazy to look!!! https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt P.s. Moderate Niños of 86/87, 94/95, 02/03, & 09/10 that were followed by a Niña also had larger temp drops by the following June than this year.

Coincidentally, I just noticed this product from the Euro today. Basically says the chances of Atlantic tropical activity at or below normal thru the first week of August. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_tcyc_family_frequency?base_time=202407080000&parameter=Accumulated cyclone energy&valid_time=202407150000

Thanks Larry. I got thinking that the EPS didn't do so hot with last winter's forecast. Although I couldn't find a site that had the 1/24 EPS 5H forecast from July 2023, I did find one from September 2023 for 1/24-3/24. so keep a stiff upper lip! Lol

Well, I wouldn't say "we (or l) are making any mistakes at this point. I'm just looking at actual data, comparing it to model progs, and asking questions. The fact is, everyone relies on modeling for their Enso forecasts, so it's not unreasonable to see how well their forecasts from a few months ago did compared to reality, along with their trends. If you don't, one runs the risk of being hit by a big bag of wtf down the road.

What are you seeing to say a La Nada is "quickly becoming very unlikely?" New weekly Enso numbers show all areas have warmed over the past 4 weeks except for area 4 which has dropped only .3C 05JUN2024 23.1-0.5 26.5-0.3 27.9 0.1 29.6 0.8 12JUN2024 22.7-0.6 26.5-0.2 27.7 0.0 29.5 0.6 19JUN2024 22.1-0.9 26.4-0.1 27.9 0.3 29.4 0.5 26JUN2024 22.1-0.6 26.2-0.1 27.9 0.4 29.5 0.7 03JUL2024 22.4-0.0 26.1-0.1 27.8 0.3 29.3 0.5

If we consider subsurface anomalies, we're already there (warmer than -.5C) per attached and the warming trend has not been interrupted.

To say it's too warm is fine, but by how much is the real question. None of the models are going to be close to perfect this far out.

Thanks, but I'll probably by dead by 2030.

Honestly, hard to believe that +.5C - +1.5C over that relatively small area of the globe is running the show, but that's just me.

Wrt the east based, i was more referring to a hybrid where it is cooler in the easter Pac vs. western Pac (Enso 4.) My wag/hope is that could yield a similar result to the decent winters that had the more textbook east based.

I am not convinced it will play out like this yet. Models are trending with the Nina strength and location and MJO has been asleep for the past month with only minor signs of life in July. Where it ends up focusing remains undetermined thanks to holding its cards close to the vest so far. Sure, warmer western Pac seems favored at this point, but we don't yet see signs of conviction with it. Time will tell with it...maybe. I'm just going to keep an open mind for now since I'm not concerned about being first with a forecast nobody cares I'm making. Lol

So one possible scenario to consider is a warm western equatorial Pacific, east based or leaning east La Nada or weak Niña ONI, and -PDO. Almost too scared to look for analogs to that. Though warmers waters out west are usually good for east coast winters.

Be interesting to see what they found exactly and how old it is.