mitchnick

Odd, temps don't look that bad on Tropical Tidbits. This link starts on December: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nmme&region=us&pkg=T2ma_nmme&runtime=2024090800&fh=3 P.s.: Noll map is for Jan-March. NMME Feb and March are more AN than Dec and Jan.

I banned myself from reading NE posts by the time Christmas rolled around that year. The MA had a decent clipper around 12/5 though. I remember JB's infamous line:"it's a clipper, it's a clipper, and now it's a flipper," or something like that, warning the pattern was turning to cr@p after it.

Lol. Although I never had a minimum charge, every lawyer I knew had a minimum charge, usually 15 minutes, when paid on an hourly rate. As a result the already crazy rates amounted to false advertising because if the had 4 separate tasks during the day at various times that only amounted to 15 minutes in total, they'd end of charging for 1 hour (4 x 15 minutes). So anyone reading this needs to clarify with their lawyer if paid on an hourly rate, they need to state in the employment contract that the lawyer gets paid for work on any day for the total time actually spent unless the total time for that day is less than the minimum charge.

I used to miss living there some, but Hanover has everything I need without the traffic and with more snow 95% of the time. The commute was the killer for me, even though it was only 3 days a week. Hats off to people who live in Hanover area that do it, and I know there are some. But after 37-38 years of a 5-10 commute to work, 75-90 minutes was maddening to this oldster. Otoh, had we not moved, I'm sure I'd a kept working. I know a lot of lawyers who go p/t once over 60 and still do ok...the crooks!!!

Agree next 7 days are dry, but the original Voyager post had the entire 384 hrs. run. Niña September's are usually drier than normal if memory serves, so I'm not saying it'll end up with AN precip. All the ensembles ARE dry thru day 7, but beyond 7 days is anyone's guess and ensembles are "probably" closer to reality than ops is what I was getting at. Over 39 years, my wife has urged me to be brief in my statements...e.g. Just shut up already!

Cfs2 is now advertising September will end with BN temps for much of PA and MA.

Eps, Gefs, and Geps all have us in the .5"-1" ranges.

You beat York airport by 4. That's impressive. Congrats.

Hanover looks to be under some heavy returns. Just when the grass was turning a nice brown! Rainer here in Southern Shores, but back edge should be thru by 2. After that, it's near identical weather to Hanover the rest of the week, less 3 or 4 degrees.

Today’s Cfs2 says Raindance is onto something. Surface: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html 850: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/usT850e3Mon.html

Be careful hanging your hat on 1 strong factor and disregarding competing, weaker ones. Sometimes the strong ones do prevail, but it's those weaker, competing ones that make long term forecasting so difficult imho.

That was an option that I can still go with, but we go Rt. 3 to 17 and then cut over to 64 at Williamsburg. On my way now so we'll see how I feel when I'm on 97 in MD whether to take 50 east. Damn bridge tunnel is $21, which constitutes rape in my book.

I'll say this much, no I'm complaining about going down to the obx, but driving it in 1 day from here vs. my old place near BWI in a real pita, especially on a Friday. I should be in the middle of rush hour once I get to Norfolk. Arrrrrg!

Don't need them. Old age is taking care of that!

Good. Better summer and into the fall before the inevitable rubber band snap sometime in winter.

I stopped drinking years ago.

I have a late vacation this year and have been holding my breath on Tropical threats next week on the OBX. Looks like I get lucky and win again by not buying travel insurance. Biggest threat is too cool to get into the pool. Good thing the neighbors won't know what they're missing not seeing me in a bathing suit. Lol

If only...

Euro seasonal does now show a solid weak Niña fwiw. Bye-bye 19/20 lol

Don't you find it crazy that none of the "experts" mentioned it in their forecasts? I will give them some slack with their original forecasts since the solar activity was supposed to peak by now and at a lower level. But I would have thought that at least a few of them would have cautioned about it with updates before now. It just supports my skepticism with any long range (years, decade(s), etc.) temp forecasts. And if it's not at a point of certainty with the high solar effects, seems like even more skepticism for long range forecasting is warranted imho.

Ot. Shame they don't make car dealer commercials like this anymore.

Generally BN August across the area and 2 decently BN cold shots with another next week is certainly different from what we've had during the period the last 5+ years if my broken memory serves.

Those are August forecasts. Let's see what happens when September forecasts are out...God help us!

York 45 low

Consensus missed last winter as well. I don't like seeing the Euro seasonal going against us because it's been best with its Niña forecast. New Euro seasonal run comes out on the Euro site Thursday I believe, so we'll see. Paid sites may already have it, idk. Hopefully, it looks more like the Cansips, and even the Cfs2 for that matter which has recently looked more like the Cansips with cold draped across Canada and the northern tier.