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Heisy

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    Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

    I worked it backwards mostly. I def had general background knowledge and understood a fair amount in general but not nearly as much as you might think just 15 years ago. I never even used or learned about 500mb ht and vort panels until eastern. I quickly learned far more about what they mean verbatim/reality than what they actually mean scientifically.  Basically, I quickly memorized what to get excited about and what to get nervous about even before I knew how/why they existed in the first place. It was nothing more than thinking "oooh, that's what I'm looking for" or "ah crap, this is ugly". But it was mostly visual and nothing savvy. THEN I learned why they exist and did the same thing (slowly) with every other important level. That's straight up backwards really right? 

    I knew panels were good or trending good or bad or whatever simply because I knew what to visually recognize. Absolutely nothing to do with in depth meteorology like physics/dynamics/laws and all the other stuff they teach mets at very expensive colleges for a career that is insulting in the paycheck dept (imo only. Seems unfair and wrong to me but that's another giant can of worms to debate).

    I did have a massive breakthrough 2011-12 when I started envisioning the atmosphere overhead like a sandwich. Each surface/mid/upper level panel is a piece of bread, cheese, tomato, meat, etc. There's a lot of important things overhead with each and every event but each event has it's own set of important things. That's complicated! 

     Then I organized my thoughts based on complexity and started calling setups things like a grilled cheese (simple overrunning), or ham and cheese (single stream wave), or club (dual stream phase/transfer etc), or imported italian cold cut (complicated multi part phase/transfer etc). Havent had a triple phase 93 redux at close enough range to name a sandwhich after it. Hopefully before I'm dead. All this stuff probably sounds funny AF but dammit it was a breakthrough. 

    So once I classified groups of events into different sandwiches I started honing in on the most important ingredients (levels) to events and that allowed me to systematically pull the proper ingredients based on the event's general characteristics.  This made me really fast and efficient at looking at the proper important stuff and not wasting time (or confusing myself) looking at dumb stuff. Like using american cheeze on a pastrami sandwich. Who the hell does that sh!t anyways?

    Anyways, I think  this should help someome somewhere understand it's only as complicated as you want to make it and anyone can learn if they really want to. If I post a 250mb jet panel then you already know I'm thinking club sandwich coastal or better and things like that. I never post a random level. I might be out to lunch with my analysis but there is a very specific reason I'm looking at it based on my filing system. I'm always improving to make it easier too. 

    Damn, super long ass post but it gives some really good insight on one way to tackle this as an enthusiest. Knowledge of physics and calculus etc are absolutely not a barrier to entry for a weenie to take it to the next level. If someone want to climb the weenie ladder, get away from surface panels and start working on 500mb skills. Skilled weenieism begins at 500mbs. No shortcuts there. I really hope this helps someone because dayum I'm a typing fool. 

    This is exactly how I’ve learned. I went to met school for 2.5 years but I feel like learning “backwards” goes a long way in this field. You start looking at H5, H7 eventually you know what’s “good”  and what’s “not”. Like today’s euro I looked at H5 and knew it was a huge east coast snowstorm. I really didn’t even have to look at surface or precip map. You start seeing the nuances and little things. I have trouble verbalizing what I’m seeing sometimes with met language, but if you sat here with me during a model run and I could talk to you you’d see the difference with me. I am far from a met compared to bob, psu and others, but yeah chill’s post was awesome.

    Obs and nowcast Major Nor'easter near blizzard Sunday afternoon Jan 31 - Sunrise Wednesday Feb 3

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

    I’m about 10 miles southwest. We should be in a good zone. Why Dover though?
     

    There are a couple hotels around the International Trade Center in Mt. Olive, right off I-80. Just a heads up. 

    No clue I don’t know much about the area it’s just one I found. I’m driving at a light, could you pm me a link to one?

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