Heisy

End of the 6z Gefs, if correct, looks workable as it may be a bit wetter with marginal temps.

I expect if the -epo is real we’ll see a few cutters that will slowly bring the lower heights E, eventually if we end up with a pattern like that one advertised, we’d be in business

PS, I woke up today to almost inch of snow on the ground and I didn’t realize it was supposed to happen. Helluva squall line up here.


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Today is the 25th anniversary of the Dec 30th, 2000 snowstorm that left a foot of snow in NYC and was the biggest storm since the blizzard of '96.
I have a full radar animation and surface map loop up here on our site
https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/dec-30-31-2000

This was the first storm I “tracked” on a weather community. I was only 14 years old. Joined up on the weather channel forums and wright-weather I believe. About 1-2 weeks before this storm our local met. Hurricane Schwartz had a segment on NBC10 Philly about a pattern change in the LR. He spoke about something called a -NAO which made me curious. Not sure why I remember this vividly, but I do lol. I always loved weather and snow so I did some internet searches and found the message boards. Before this I would get my weather news from TWC local forecasts and their 5 day outlooks lol. There was no model snow maps really that I remember. If I recall, people just posted snow fall amounts from the MRF or ETA. Using precip maps and soundings I suppose.


Anyway, the night of the storm I stayed up all night watching the radar. I remember speaking to our very own Ji on AOL AIM and him telling me how big of a bust this event was for DC.

I didn’t know much, but watching the radar I could tell the storm was farther E than expected. Luckily it just clipped us good enough to get a few hours of +SN in the morning down here in Philly. Ended with around 8 or so I believe.

I remember speaking to someone in C Nj on aim early in the morning as well. He was going nuts at how heavy the snow was and reported thunder snow. I think his screen name was Boltaire or Killerhamster. He could be a member here since he lived in your region, who knows.

Good times, then later in that season we had the March 01 bust which taught me a lot about this hobby


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is hamburg NY a nice place to live?
 

Id rather live in Worcester MA or somewhere in SNE with elevation because of the nor’easters. LES is cool but nothing beats the a good ol’ fashioned 20-30” coastal


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This is pretty good match for day 10 between two OP models, -EPO cold dump, obv going to be a warm up before the front eventually clears, question is what happens after?





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Here is, in my opinion, one of the big pattern keys to keep an eye on. Going to use the GFS as an example.

Look at yesterday’s 18z gfs. It cut off the pac energy and retrograded it west under the building epo ridge out west



Now, the newer run still building an -EPO ridge, but they’re also bringing that pac energy east which temporarily boosts the SE ridge. If this ends up happening we may have to wait another 7-10 days to let the -EPO work its magic





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There ya go Ji, you can sleep tonight


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Uptick in fantasy events today, 12z euro was so close to something crazy that run. Take away from today’s runs is that Jan 6-10+ has legit potential.


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Garbage model, but it’s fun to look at. Roll that forward a few days




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I’m very optimistic for January. 

I honestly feel like there is a chance for a big dog in January. First time in a while I’ve felt that way. All the normal caveats apply, but the fact that we’ve had winter storms on the EC this year, I got 5” event mid Dec already. Pattern aside, I just feel like this might be the time.


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Euro AI lighting up with a few events, one big Miller A as well as the GFS. 

Yea, as always we gotta get lucky, but the pattern looks good. Just gotta see how the pac energy ends up shaking out.


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6z GFS gives us something to look at

00z ai and 6z ai to a degree as well. Starting to see fantasy events being spit out in LR OP models. The Jan 6-10 frame has me excited personally


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No need. 18z Euro

Gfs and euro are trending closer for that day 6 wave. It’s very synoptically similar to the mid December event. Year of the clipper continues?


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Just east of BGM on I88.
 

Insane radar sig right now, jealous AF




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Got some heavy sleet under a bright yellow radar band.

Talk about a thump, would love to be up that way right now!




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Noticed this a few times this year, think it’s some glitch, error, or something. Look at this precip output, ridiculous.




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Sometimes I wonder if I died a few years ago and this is purgatory. Last week’s 5” snow event was just enough to keep me from questioning reality. I bet if I go back through my screen shots I can find this same ridge bridge pattern over the last 3-4 years.




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Since we’re in grasping at straws stage, 6z euro AI has a snow/mix event after Xmas. Actually a nice setup and close to something a lot bigger. Interestingly (?), overnight EPS pushes a trough over us in the same time period and retrogrades the pig ridge in the Plains for a few days. 

Yeah that’s a split flow, we’ll see if it has legs as we get closer.




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5.5 Feasterville-Trevose


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Deathband forming in Jersey, rock on




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I just measured im nearing 4” surprisingly on cold surfaces. This band is delivering. Probably end up with 5+


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How do you think euro ai did with this? Purely gut and eye test it seemed good to me. 
 
obs 4.67” at 635  

Haven’t looked at in the short term, but it was basically the first model to have this event, so gotta give it credit there.

This band is pretty sweet




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I had about 2” in Feasterville-trevose around 5am. My guess is we end up right around 4”, puking right now


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PSU land. I am shocked! 

From the 00z hrrr, that area I posted above is one of the max spots, and then towards coastal NJ which will have some coastal influence. Maybe 8 is too generous, but I think someone in those areas will see 6+ for sure. Good storm for many though.


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This area here where the precip is sprouting is likely to see 6-8”, one of the jackpot zones imo




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Ardmore is proper jackpotting this.

Someone in Lancaster or Berks C will hit 7-8” I bet. Philly around 4-5” my last call


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