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Posts posted by Heisy
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I like where this is headed. N/S pushing ahead (missed phase) but plenty of energy still left in the main shortwave.
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I had a suspicion I liked the op progression a lot better.
Yep, it’s the one we want, just gotta keep amping it up. A phase you were going to have issue with temps imo. We could still hypothetically back side phase as long as that N/S piece pushes ahead
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Would that not be a good thing? That more resembles the 0z gfs does it not?
Yea but if the northern shortwave and the main one don’t have enough separation you’d end up with like a 00z cmc solution. Yea that trend is favorable, but only if the southern main shortwave backs up/slows down a bit there.
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This is similar to what the older GFS runs we’re doing but we need better spacing or it won’t work
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6z control (extension of OP) had some major H5 changes
It leaves the southern energy behind.
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It does look like more members hang back the southern energy in the GEFS after looking at H5
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Yea like I said cmc was a nod towards the GFS. Euro would need to change drastically to get to a GFS solution so hopefully that starts tonight. Need the N/S to race ahead and not phase or it has no shot to snow
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Ukie is in the euro phasing camp, 18z euro control phases the waves even more than 12z so that wasn’t good. We’ll see, need more support before it can be taken serious
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The GFS delays the main wave which allows the N/S to race ahead and supply cold air. Cmc was a nod towards the GFS but it has terrible spacing so nothing comes of it. Euro obviously phased the two waves which would be worst case. Hopefully see the euro go towards the GFS
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These big gaps mid-Winter are like "meh" I am ready for Spring. It will be kind of annoying to have a lot of snow that melts in 2-3 days.. then is in like the 50s. Or 45 that feels like 60 lol
December-mid Jan snows are so much better
Do we really ever do well with snow cover? For me Winter is all about snow falling. Give me 2 feet that melts in 6 hours for all I care ha.
Just need some patience right now. The pattern change is coming. The wave near the 13-14th was always a long shot since the cold isn’t established yet. We will have plenty of opportunities 2nd half of Feb into March. By end of week I think threats will start popping up. Could we screw it up? Absolutely, but at least we have a shot. We knew the current pattern offered no chance. We’re getting a PNA ridge, -epo and Atlantic blocking. All you could ask for really.
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I don’t think it’s a coincidence both these models (control, GFs) have absolutely massive blocks at the end of there runs. Looks, it’s possible we get shutout a few days into the pattern change, but I’ll roll the dice with a massive AO block end of Feb into March. Just have to hopefully avoid -PNA and ridge link up.
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Not worried about suppression for now. Storm tracks almost always shift further north as they get closer (as long as there isn’t an omega block right over us). Sure someone may get hit in NC or even northern SC in one of those threats, but the primary storm track won’t set up that far south.
Yea suppression is least of my worries. This winter has not lacked precip. Let’s just get the good pattern here and worry about that later
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The 14-15th has trended a bit colder on the GEFS so that is one window to monitor. The period beyond that around PD is starting to look more interesting- colder air in place and more like a typical Nino event with a discrete wave tracking across the south, and less NS interaction.
I’m still intrigued by this period. We normally don’t score during the first wave of a pattern change but I do think if the shortwaves progress correctly we could time something.
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I’d do many illegal things to be here
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This is an Ensemble Mean for 7 days. That’s some good consensus. But it is the control, so what does that mean? Is the GEFS similar for the time period?
It doesn’t mean anything except the pattern during this period is conducive for snow
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Not sure it was posted, this is just for fun with the range , but wow… that’s like a HECS setup cold dome over us and STJ gearing up.
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No change to pattern timing, but the “wait” just keeps getting warmer. Hopefully it’s just a product of sharpening the wave features leading up to the pattern change
It does seem early on the ridge out west looks more broad on the ensembles than it did previously , it does get there but there was a slight delay there over last few runs. Not a big deal yet. Still looking on track for the most part
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Similar type progression as last nights euro could set the table mid month for an event. N/S energy advancing ahead for any left over energy in SW
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From our Philly forum…
00z 06 GFS show a PV split btw right around mid month. If we have some blocking at that time could even enhance everything. Ensembles just stretch it, just seems everything is lining up at just the right time.
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Play that forward and the energy in 4 corners could work out depending on if the energy around the lakes is able to compress the flow a bit
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By the way I was right. The 00z control turned that wave into a Mid Atlantic hit. Lala land but at least it’s an example of a more winter storm conducive pattern starting Feb 14-15
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Play that forward and the energy in 4 corners could work out depending on if the energy around the lakes is able to compress the flow a bit
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Eps Looks like what the cmc ensembles have been advertising for a few runs now. Pretty much all on board. How that actual pattern evolves to get here we’ll find out, may have a storm threat around 12-15 if there’s good sequence/timing of waves, but all the ensembles generally get to this point now
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We’re about 7 days away from tracking mode coming back.
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Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.
in Mid Atlantic
Posted
We’re probably another 24 hours or so of figuring out which progression wins out. Not sure which I prefer honestly. Perfect world to me is a euro progression and a phase with 2nd N/S piece vs GFS where yea you’ll have a stronger storm but there’s no lead wave to reinforce colder temps
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