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Heisy

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Posts posted by Heisy

  1. These big gaps mid-Winter are like "meh" I am ready for Spring.  It will be kind of annoying to have a lot of snow that melts in 2-3 days.. then is in like the 50s. Or 45 that feels like 60 lol
    December-mid Jan snows are so much better 

    Do we really ever do well with snow cover? For me Winter is all about snow falling. Give me 2 feet that melts in 6 hours for all I care ha.

    Just need some patience right now. The pattern change is coming. The wave near the 13-14th was always a long shot since the cold isn’t established yet. We will have plenty of opportunities 2nd half of Feb into March. By end of week I think threats will start popping up. Could we screw it up? Absolutely, but at least we have a shot. We knew the current pattern offered no chance. We’re getting a PNA ridge, -epo and Atlantic blocking. All you could ask for really.


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  2. Not worried about suppression for now. Storm tracks almost always shift further north as they get closer (as long as there isn’t an omega block right over us). Sure someone may get hit in NC or even northern SC in one of those threats, but the primary storm track won’t set up that far south. 

    Yea suppression is least of my worries. This winter has not lacked precip. Let’s just get the good pattern here and worry about that later


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  3. The 14-15th has trended a bit colder on the GEFS so that is one window to monitor. The period beyond that around PD is starting to look more interesting- colder air in place and more like a typical Nino event with a discrete wave tracking across the south, and less NS interaction.
    1708279200-f8w05vawQt4.png
    1708300800-T5XZ2W4IZm4.png

    I’m still intrigued by this period. We normally don’t score during the first wave of a pattern change but I do think if the shortwaves progress correctly we could time something.


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  4. No change to pattern timing, but the “wait” just keeps getting warmer. Hopefully it’s just a product of sharpening the wave features leading up to the pattern change

    It does seem early on the ridge out west looks more broad on the ensembles than it did previously , it does get there but there was a slight delay there over last few runs. Not a big deal yet. Still looking on track for the most part


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