Heisy

Icon developed too late but in line with what we’d want to see just farther SE development if possible


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12z looked better?

There is better separation with southern wave so idk. You’re probably right though. Hard to say. This definitely all favors NE of course. I might decide to chase it if it becomes a big event. Haven’t gone anywhere this year yet


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No icon posts? This was a good sign

Little later phase and boom




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Can tell early on the 00z GFS will drop that N/S lobe S again. Not as crazy as 12z, better than 18z


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Make of it what you want. Tough to call


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Ok i will be careful thank you

Helmet and knee pads as usual.

We need the ocean storm to bomb out ahead of it, force the main low farther S


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For weeks I’ve mentioned 2/24/24 sounded great, well it’s a day early but we’ll take it. Careful though could just be the medium/long range euro going bonkers as usual


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Little interesting here


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End of the 6z control looked better for the setup leading into the 22-24 event. See if anything pops on 12z runs


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After seeing the weeklies for march assuming they are correct….we probably have one more storm for us to track

You meant that in a positive tone right cause they don’t look too bad. I still would keep an eye on 2/23-24, we need some big changes though.


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Icon-Ukie-euro is a killer combo these days. Ignore the crap GFS.


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Snagged this from Berks page

I think we’ll see some 15:1 maybe even higher ratios on the N side of this thing, 6+ near the md/pa border seems possible imo


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Ok, checking out the 18z Euro now...not out to the money period yet...not seeing any big changes so far

Actually the wave is backed up a bit this prob comes in juicier


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Think there’s any chance SSW gives us some hope for Smarch?


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Icon uses euro parts. It’s beating the gfs

Until the Ukie comes on board nothing else matters


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Puking snow now. Highest rates in quite a while. Closing in on 2"

Pivot looks great for us 4+ easily


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We r in the line of fire. Heaviest band setting up pretty much over us maybe a hair N if you do a loop and look at the axis starting to pivot and deform band beginning to form.    

Yea N if the city NE through NYC region jackpot

Whoever stays in that pivot region basically.

That band is 1-2” hr stuff here currently Bensalem


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6z euro has that awesome pivot ccb band over just NE of Philly into NYC. Someone in that is gonna jackpot imo


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the 18z HRRR is already a solid 30 miles south of the 15z run at 14 hours.

Imagine the NWS offices in my region. I live in Bensalem just NE of Philly. I have no clue what to expect here. Wild models


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Hrrr always counts mix as snow accumulation, so cut some off near city for sure, but that run legit crushed our region. That’s def a max potential map


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This type of model performance this close to the event is almost unheard of in the past 5-10 years...even 15 years ago it was not common.

Was gonna post this earlier, I’ve been around 30 years. This is in the top 3 of the craziest model trends at this range. Behind Boxing Day and Jan 2000


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Yeah after I get some slop tomorrow morning I’m probably checking out myself unless something really pops. Pattern isn’t bad but we can’t seem to time anything up. Just making me frustrated so I’ll track from a distance

Good luck rest of year….

Cya at 00z


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This is maybe the biggest move I’ve seen the euro make at this range in my life. It’s up there


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